This was supposed to be it. This was supposed to be the year for the Buffalo Sabres.
Not for a championship, not for even a run at a championship. This was supposed to be the year that the Sabres picked up their fans and returned to the playoffs after missing them for 12 consecutive seasons. After falling one point short last year and with the same roster largely intact, it seemed like all the pieces were in place for a magical season, one vastly overdue in Western New York.
With the 2023-24 season just about at the halfway point, that hasn’t been the case at all, and Buffalo sits with a 15-18-4 record as of Dec. 30. While that isn’t exactly atrocious, it’s a far, far cry from what was expected and doesn’t reflect how downright doleful it’s been at points.
What caused things to go so bad so quickly is anyone’s guess at this point. The team’s red-hot offensive attack of last year has vanished, its defense remains suspect at best, and the goaltending gamble on Devon Levi has not paid off. Coach Don Granato’s job, which looked locked up at the end of last season, suddenly appears to be in jeopardy.
Fans have spent the entire first half waiting for the Sabres to snap out of it and shift into a higher gear, but that just hasn’t happened, and it begs a number of questions we didn’t think we’d be asking. Are they capable of snapping out of it? Is this team as good as we believed it to be? Was last season an apparition?
Did the Sabres Forget How to Score?
Buffalo’s torrid offense was the story of last season and was its propulsion from start to finish. The Sabres scored left, right, and center and wracked up the third-most goals in the NHL (296), many of which were highlight-reel caliber. Their top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch combined for 255 points, while they and Dylan Cozens all reached the 30-goal mark. It was often enough to compensate for the issues in virtually every other area and was unquestionably the biggest reason the team came so close to the postseason. The script could not have flipped more dramatically this season.
That gas-powered onslaught has vanished, and the Sabres have looked dramatically different without it. To be fair, they were bitten hard by the injury bug in the first half of the season and were without a number of key players for significant stretches. A huge blow came over the summer when it was announced that Jack Quinn would miss half of the season due to an Achilles injury, but that was just the beginning. Thompson and Tuch have missed a combined 17 games, Jordan Greenway has missed 12, and Zemgus Girgensons has missed 16. Even the ever-durable Skinner has missed three.
Even with the numerous ailments taken into account, the Sabres are still not performing as expected. They have just 110 goals on the season as of Dec. 28, 18th in the NHL. It’s been a stark about-face and a number of players simply aren’t producing on the same level. Though Thompson, Skinner, and Tuch are all having solid seasons, all three are on pace for far lower point totals at the season’s end. It hasn’t been limited to forwards, either. Rasmus Dahlin, who looked like a Norris Trophy front-runner at this time last year, has regressed significantly as well. He’s not far off point-per-game pace with 29 in 35 games, but fans had much more in mind.
However, the biggest (and most shocking) fall from grace has been Cozens, and he’s been the first to acknowledge such. The Workhorse from Whitehorse’s 31-goal, 68-point breakout was one of the biggest positives of last season. Whether it’s the weight of the new contract he received or simply a major regression, Cozens hasn’t been himself this season at all and has just six goals and 19 points through 34 games. In the process, he’s become a microcosm of the team’s struggles.
The rapid reversal of fortune brings about a dubious question: was last season a one-hit wonder? After all, it would be impossible to call 296 goals a fluke, but was it just a massive over-achievement, and the Sabres simply aren’t as dangerous as we believed them to be? Unfortunately, until their numbers increase and the likes of Thompson and Dahlin begin to dazzle like they once had, there’s weight to that claim.
Granato Suddenly On the Hot Seat
It’s truly remarkable how drastically the perception of Don Granato has changed in such a short amount of time. In the span of just a few months, the coach has gone from the savior of the franchise to the man destroying it and the Sabres’ continued struggles have had many calling for his head.
Make no mistake about it: Granato was exactly what the doctor ordered when he succeeded Ralph Krueger, who was fired amidst the disastrous 2021 “COVID season.” He had his work more than cut out for him, but he proved to be the perfect fit. He’s directly responsible for Thompson and Skinner’s successful reclamation projects and for helping Dahlin and Cozens transform into legitimate stars. But even more importantly, his laid-back, calm demeanor helped the team develop the identity it desperately needed, and it’s no coincidence whatsoever that Buffalo has improved massively under his guidance.
But just like the offense, the spotlight on the bench boss has become far less flattering and has had fans and the media alike doubting his competency. The Sabres have had quite a few embarrassing losses and each one has been a result of passive, inattentive play. The coach has pledged time and time again that adjustments will be made and his team will right the ship, but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that he either has no answers or is taking quite a bit of time to implement them.
This, too, raises a valid question: how much longer will this be allowed to continue before a change is made? Granato isn’t entirely responsible here, as he obviously isn’t the one on the ice. But a coach’s job is to roll with the punches and make changes when needed. That hasn’t happened thus far, and it’s resulted in a reevaluation of the formerly beloved bench boss. Is he the guy to get the Sabres to the next level? He was an excellent developmental coach but has stumbled in an attempt to take the next step. Can he get his team back on the rails, or is yet another coaching change coming in Buffalo?
Adams Isn’t Free of Blame
While Granato has rightly been taking plenty of heat for the team’s struggles, he’s not the only one at fault. General manager Kevyn Adams is culpable as well for a number of moves and non-moves that have backfired. We’ve talked quite a bit about the risk of bringing Devon Levi aboard too soon and the defense’s failure to improve, but the biggest example has flown under the radar.
Quinn’s Achilles injury occurred in June, and the Sabres had plenty of time to find a contingency. Ultimately, they decided to use the vacancy in the lineup to give an opportunity to their many NHL-ready prospects. 2023 13th overall pick Zach Benson ultimately won the spot after a terrific preseason, and the team opted to keep him up after his nine-game grace period ended. Jiri Kulich, Matthew Savoie, and Isak Rosen were all brought up at various points.
The problem with this was that the prospects were being brought up to fill the void left by Quinn, not simply for the sake of a trial run. Relying on young players receiving their first glimpse of NHL action to provide a spark is a bold strategy, especially for a team expected to make the playoffs for the first time in so many years. Benson unquestionably earned the right to stay with the Sabres and has been one of their best players this season, but there was never any way the 18-year-old would produce like Quinn and the team’s brass were kidding themselves if they believed that would happen.
It’s true that hindsight is 20/20, but Buffalo still should have known that other avenues would be better. They easily could have signed an affordable free agent forward to serve as a replacement. A trade would have been an option as well, even if it meant making a sizeable offer. Think about it: the Sabres have had nine first-round draft choices since 2019 and have used them to stack their pipeline, making it one of the best in the game. Given that, what would have been the harm in trading next year’s first-rounder to bring back a big return?
Quinn’s absence was felt throughout its duration, and while the team was glad to get him back this month, the damage was done without him.
Will Buffalo Right the Ship?
While the Sabres aren’t where they should be, that can easily change. Though currently three games below an even winning percentage, they’re only six points out of a playoff spot as of Dec. 30 and can easily erase that deficit if they can turn things around, but that’s a very big if.
Related: Buffalo Sabres’ Best Moments of 2023
To this point, the Sabres haven’t been able to learn from any of their mistakes and have continually shot themselves in the feet. It’s entirely possible that they could find their bearings in the half of the season and make a run at it, but there’s also a chance that they just aren’t that good. After all, would a good team be struggling in such a way for such an extended period? It doesn’t seem likely.
The Sabres closed out 2023 with a come-from-behind victory over Columbus at home. Will that ignite them? Will they surprise us down the stretch and prove that they’re more than they’ve shown? We can only hope.
