As the year enters its final hours, there’s NHL action on the schedule. Nine games are to be played throughout the early afternoon and into the evening. Every team wants to end the year on a high note, including the Tampa Bay Lightning when they host the Montreal Canadiens at 7 p.m.
The Lightning come into this game off a loss to the New York Rangers – the team they happened to fall to on New Year’s Eve a couple of years back.
The usual talking points will arise. The Stanley Cup Final history, the Lightning’s success at home, their defensive woes, the Canadiens’ winning record on the road – you name it.
Now, on any other day of the year, these trends and the usual season statistics are fully how this matchup would be judged. However, there’s an extra secret sauce in the Lightning’s back pocket that almost makes the usual talking points go out the window: The fact that it’s New Year’s Eve.
The Lightning relish the moment on the final day on the calendar whether they realize it or not.
End of Year Means Lightning Win
According to StatMuse, the Lightning have played 16 games on Dec. 31 and have a record of 10-4-1-1. In contrast, the Canadiens are 19-13-5-3 – or less than half of those games are wins. Sure, the Lightning have been a good team for a decade now, but the wins do not fully correlate with how they fare in the regular season.
Two of their first three wins on New Year’s Eve were by Lightning teams that had losing records. Half of their wins were by teams that missed the playoffs. In the years, there was a New Year’s Eve game and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, and the Lightning are 1-0-1-1.
So something in the stars aligns almost every Dec. 31 to allow this trend to stand. After a bit of research, there have been two factors that can be concluded to be the most likely reasons the Lightning have ended the year with a win as often as they have.
The save percentage (SV%) for Lightning goalies who played on New Year’s Eve is .915. Three of the 10 wins have been shutouts. Eight of these wins saw the opponent score two goals or fewer. Only two of these games saw a Lightning goalie face fewer than 20 shots.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, for example, is undefeated (6-0-0) on New Year’s Eve. On top of that, he has a .937 SV % and a 1.67 goals-against average (GAA). This is better than his career 2.37 GAA and .921 SV % in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It is on par, however, with his .937 SV % in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, where he won the Conn Smythe Trophy.
How sure is this conclusion that can be drawn? The offense came alive to score five or more goals in half of their wins and have never lost a game in this scenario. Steven Stamkos has six goals on this day. True.
But these big offensive nights have rarely come when the opponent’s offense shows up. When the Lightning give up three or more goals on New Year’s Eve, their record is 2-4-1. Preventing goals has been a greater factor in success, more often than not.
Then there’s scheduling. The opponents themselves have wound up at Amalie Arena on the wrong night. Eight of the wins have been against teams that finished the season with a record of .500 or a losing record. Just two wins have been against teams that went on to make the playoffs.
So, the success on New Year’s Eve can be attributed to getting a beatable team on the final night of the year, and the goalie rarely has an off night against them.
How This Trend Impacts the Game Against Montreal
This is the first time the Lightning have faced the Canadiens on New Year’s Eve. A new challenger has arrived. Despite all the success, the Canadiens have a chance to buck the overall trend. Here’s why.
While there are no previous matchups on Dec 31 between the two teams to look back at, there is precedent to determine how the Lightning will fare. They have performed well on New Year’s Eve with a particular exception: Canadian teams.
The Lightning have not played a Canadian team on New Year’s Eve since 2002. That has potentially helped them out a bit. When they play a Canadian team on New Year’s Eve, things look a bit different. Their record in this scenario is 1-3-0. On top of that, Canadian teams are undefeated in Tampa Bay. The lone win was in Ottawa. Perhaps, in this case, this points to the Canadiens continuing a Canadian trend.
Vasilevskiy’s run on this day is a moot point because he won’t be in the game. Since the Lightning are playing back-to-back nights, Jonas Johansson will be in the net. For what it’s worth, he has played on New Year’s Eve, stopping seven out of seven shots in 23 minutes of ice time. But it’s a sample size of less than a full game. At that point, you defer to the larger sample size in favor of the Canadian teams and, in turn, Montreal.
All signs point to the Lightning potentially taking a rare defeat to conclude 2023.
