It’s time for the second edition of the Calder Trophy tracker for the 2023-24 season. We’ve already looked at the Calder Trophy race a couple of times this season, but let’s look at where the race stands post-trade deadline, as there have been some changes. Connor Bedard once again looks like the frontrunner, as he’s been on a tear since returning from his injury.
Brock Faber
Bedard missing nearly six weeks with a broken jaw put Brock Faber in the spotlight, but he’s since cooled off. He’ll never have the points to match Bedard, but his production has been respectable, with 38 points in 62 games, an impressive number for a rookie defenseman playing difficult defensive minutes.
While Faber’s offensive game has been a pleasant surprise, his defensive performance has caught everyone’s attention. On some nights, he’s logging close to 30 minutes a game for the Wild. Of course, it’s important what you do in those minutes, and his results have warranted the attention he’s gotten.
Related: 2023-24 Vezina Trophy Tracker: Midseason Update
Faber’s overall game has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 10.6, ranked 22nd among all defensemen in the NHL, not just rookies. He’s been one of the Wild’s best shot suppressors, averaging 2.28 expected goals against per 60 minutes when on the ice at five-on-five.
Faber was the frontrunner for the Calder when Bedard was injured. But with Bedard back and Faber cooling off a tad in recent weeks, the race has again tilted in favor of the former. Still, there’s no doubt that Faber will finish somewhere in the top three in voting once the season concludes.
Connor Bedard
Bedard is back from his injury and is on an absolute tear. With 18 points in 13 games since returning from a broken jaw, he’s now up to 51 points in 52 games and is closing in on Connor McDavid’s rate of production from his rookie season. Even though Bedard missed nearly six weeks, he’s firmly back in the driver’s seat to win the Calder. And while his on-ice impacts haven’t been great, that’s more a product of his team than Bedard’s individual performance.
Even then, some metrics paint a favorable portrait of Bedard’s play. His overall play has been worth a total GAR of 7.6, mostly because he’s already been such a dynamic threat offensively. His even-strength offense has been worth a GAR of 7.1, the same number as Matthew Tkachuk, and placing him in the top 75 league-wide for forwards.
Bedard also remains the Blackhawks’ most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.25 points per 60 minutes. That speaks to the Blackhawks’ depleted roster, especially with Taylor Hall also out long-term with a knee injury.
Not only does Bedard have some metrics that show his positive value to the team, but the eye test backs how well he’s playing. He has a plus shot, and it should only get better as he matures and adds more strength to his frame. The fact that no one pulled away with the race while he was out left the door open for him to take it back, and he certainly has.
Luke Hughes
The New Jersey Devils have a couple of impressive rookie defensemen logging big minutes, especially with the significant injuries to Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton. Luke Hughes, the youngest of the Hughes brothers, had a terrific start to the 2023-24 season.
Hughes’ counting totals — 32 points in 65 games — are a touch worse than Faber’s. But plenty of metrics show Hughes has been playing well ahead of where he should be for a 20-year-old defenseman in the NHL. And even then, his 32 points in 65 games have him on pace to finish with 40.
When we first published this post, Hughes’ play had been worth a total expected GAR (xGAR) of 9.1, placing him 19th among all NHL defensemen, not just rookies. It’s slipped a bit since, dropping to 8.1, but that still places him in the top 50 among all defensemen league-wide
The rookie wall has hit Hughes hard over the last month or so. His play has dropped off significantly, and interim coach Travis Green has started sheltering Hughes on the team’s third defense pair alongside fellow rookie Šimon Nemec. Even with the drop in play, I still think Hughes will get some Calder votes. Part of it is because of his strong start to this season, but it’s also because this Calder race has turned out to be weaker than expected.
Marco Rossi
Faber’s teammate with the Wild, Marco Rossi has taken a significant step forward in his development this season. He’s third in rookie scoring, with 33 points in 66 games, placing him just behind Faber and Bedard. That puts him on pace to finish with 41 points.
The Wild have played better under new head coach John Hynes, but the play of Faber and Rossi has been encouraging all season. Rossi’s even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 8.1, while his overall play has been worth a total xGAR of 10.4. He’s been the Wild’s fifth-most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 1.83 points per 60 minutes.
While offense is the name of the game with Rossi, his two-way game has been solid for a rookie forward playing his first full season in the NHL. Could he get top-three votes? Given Hughes’ dropoff and Adam Fantilli’s injury keeping him out long-term, I’d say Rossi is in a good spot to get top-three votes.
Dmitri Vorkonov
This spot originally belonged to another Columbus Blue Jacket in Fantilli. But with him having not played due to injury since we first published this, his teammate Dmitri Voronkov joins the Calder race. In 59 games, he has 17 goals and 31 points — a 24-goal, 43-point pace over 82 games.
Voronkov has been one of the few bright spots for a Blue Jackets team that’s once again at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division standings. His overall pay has been worth a total xGAR of 5.3, with his offensive game being his strength. He’s averaged 2.28 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the third-most efficient rate on the Blue Jackets.
And even though offense is his strength, he has not been a defensive liability. The Blue Jackets seem to have a good one on their hands and someone who should be a complementary player around Fantilli as they look to get themselves out of their rebuild over the next couple of years.
Will Voronkov get top-three votes in the Calder? That’s debatable, but he seems to be in a good position to finish in the top five at worst. If he hits 20 goals, which seems like a good bet, that should secure his place somewhere in the top five of voting.
Bedard’s Award to Lose
Faber once looked like he was the frontrunner while Bedard was recovering from his injury. But Bedard has taken back the lead with his incredible performance since returning, including a five-point effort against the Anaheim Ducks on March 12.
Faber will finish second in the Calder race, but after him is anyone’s guess. Luke Hughes’ struggles have opened the door for Voronkov and Rossi to make their cases for top-three votes, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of them ends up being a finalist alongside Bedard and Faber.
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Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick
