Welcome to THW’s 2023-24 Vezina Trophy tracker. This will be the first in a series of articles tracking major awards for the rest of this season. We’ll be using a combination of advanced and traditional stats to determine who’s in the running for the Vezina and other trophies.
The parameters for the Vezina are simple. You have to be the team’s primary starter and have played in a majority of the team’s games. Let’s look at who’s leading the Vezina Trophy race post-trade deadline.
Connor Hellebuyck
- Stats as of March 17, 2024: .921 save percentage, 28.2 goals saved above expected.
The Winnipeg Jets are one of the NHL’s surprise teams, and Connor Hellebuyck is a significant reason for it. As it stands, he’s the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy amid one of the best seasons of his career that’s resulted in the Jets holding a top-three spot in the Central Division.
Hellebuyck’s 28.2 goals saved above expected ranks first in the NHL among all goalies with at least five games played. His save percentage of .921 ranks second among goalies with at least 20 games played, trailing only Anthony Stolarz, who’s having an excellent season backing up Sergei Bobrovsky with the Florida Panthers.
Related: 2023-24 Calder Trophy Tracker: March Update
Hellebuyck has long had a reputation as one of the NHL’s best goaltenders, and he’s certainly lived up to it this season. In an era where save percentages have dipped and the league average hovers around .900, it’s impressive to see Hellebuyck still consistently in the .920s and above.
That might make it sound like he doesn’t have much competition, but that’s not the case. Let’s look at a few other goalies in the Vezina conversation through the trade deadline, including one who’s had a surge in recent weeks.
Jacob Markström
- Stats as of March 17, 2024: .910 SV% and 16.1 goals saved above expected
Jacob Markström’s .910 SV% may not look all that impressive, but his underlying numbers show a goaltender very much in the Vezina conversation. His 16.1 goals saved above expected ranks fourth in the league, and he’s played a significant part in helping the Calgary Flames at least hang around in the Western Conference playoff picture.
Markström has a five-on-five save percentage of .918, which is solid. But his ability to stop high-danger shots has proven to be a difference-maker. His five-on-five high-danger SV% of .869 ranks second in the NHL among goalies with at least ten games played. That’s played a part in his bounce-back season and why he should again be in the Vezina conversation.
Thatcher Demko
- Stats as of March 17, 2024: .917 SV% and 20.2 goals saved above expected
If there’s someone who could dethrone Hellebuyck, it’s Thatcher Demko. Part of the reason why the Vancouver Canucks have ridden the PDO train to the top of the Pacific Division is because Demko has been fantastic through this point of the 2023-24 season.
Demko’s 20.2 goals saved above expected ranks second to Hellebuyck. He has a five-on-five SV% of .922, which is excellent, and his high-danger SV% of .852 at that game state puts him 13th among NHL for goalies with at least ten games played.
Demko has always been a solid goalie, but it’s never felt like he’s gotten the appreciation he deserves because 1) the Canucks had underachieved until this season, and 2) he had trouble staying healthy last season. Assuming he stays healthy the rest of the way, he’ll remain in the Vezina conversation, which seems like a good bet at this point.
Sergei Bobrovsky
- Stats as of March 17, 2024: .916 SV% and 19.5 goals saved above expected
When we first published this, Connor Ingram was in this spot instead of Sergei Bobrovsky. Ingram has tailed off a bit, but he’s still having a good season. This doesn’t have anything to do with his play. It’s more about Bobrovsky’s surge to get into the Vezina conversation.
Many pundits have the Panthers as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. That’s a smart pick, and with how Bobrovsky is playing, he could lead them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive year. His SV% has climbed up to .918, but it’s his goals saved above expected of 19.5 which has him third in the NHL in that statistic behind Demko and Hellebuyck.
Bobrovsky has an excellent five-on-five SV% of .925, which has him right outside the top ten in the NHL. He has not been as adept at stopping high-danger chances as the other goalies on this list, but he’s still getting the job done, with an .824 HDSV% at all strengths. Despite that “blip,” he’s gotten himself into the convo for the Vezina. Will NHL GMs, who vote on the trophy, see it the same way? Time will tell, but he does deserve recognition.
Jeremy Swayman
- Swayman stats as of March 17, 2024: .917 SV% and 15.9 goals saved above expected
Linus Ullmark is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, and while he has played well this season, his partner Jeremy Swayman has put up Vezina-worthy numbers through this point of the season.
Swayman’s 15.9 goals saved above expected ranks sixth in the NHL, just behind Markström. His five-on-five SV% of .935 is a top-five number in the league, and he’s stopping high-danger shots at a near-elite level, with an .843 high-danger SV% at five-on-five.
The Boston Bruins evenly split their starts 50/50 between Ullmark and Swayman, so it’ll come down to whether Swayman gets enough starts to get in the Vezina conversation. Right now, it looks like Swayman will track for between 40 and 50 starts, given how the Bruins manage their netminders. If he gets 45-plus starts, I don’t think voters should hold that against him, but you never know.
Other Goalies to Consider
These five goalies are the main ones to consider, but there are others worth monitoring. Igor Shesterkin has picked it up and looks more like the Shesterkin we’re used to seeing, but he still has ground to make up. The New York Rangers have gone back to relying on him more than Jonathan Quick, so perhaps he still has a chance.
The same applies to Adin Hill, but he’s only played in 30 games due to injury. Jordan Binnington has quietly had a great season for the St. Louis Blues. His 16.2 goals saved above expected ranks fourth in the NHL, but it doesn’t feel like there’s much noise around him being a Vezina candidate. I don’t think he will be one, but he should probably get a little more credit for the season he’s having.
There’s still time for the Vezina race to change since most teams have around 15-17 games remaining on their schedules. Will Hellebuyck remain atop the race? Can Demko or Bobrovsky catch him? Time will tell.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck
