They say a rising tide lifts all boats. However, as far as the Montreal Canadiens are concerned, it’s kind of the opposite. Many expect the Habs to at the very least improve in the standings in 2024-25. That’s logically based on a variety of factors, not the least of which is the upward trajectory in the development curves of the players themselves.
Related: Canadiens Realistically on the Rise in Atlantic Division in 2024-25
Thanks largely to the expected improvement on the part of the Canadiens’ young players, who comprise the core, the team as a whole will reap the benefits. However, some players stand out above all others as realistically leading the charge. Here are the top five Habs facing the highest higher expectations heading into 2024-25:
Kaiden Guhle
Fresh off a new six-year, $33.3 million extension, defenseman Kaiden Guhle’s long-term place in the organization has been relatively solidified, even if his specific role hasn’t. The left-handed defenseman spent a great deal of time on his off side, playing with Mike Matheson on the team’s top pairing for all intents and purposes. However, Matheson actually paired with the right-handed David Savard to form the team’s most common pairing overall.
With Savard still in the fold (for the time being as a pending unrestricted free agent), the Canadiens may opt to go with the latter option, thus returning Guhle to his natural side. It would arguably be for the best for his development, with his production having taken a step back last season, scoring 22 points in 70 games, when he scored 18 in 44 contests in 2022-23.
There is undeniably a log jam on defense, especially on the left, but the right is no slouch in that department either. Justin Barron is poised to make the team out of training camp as he’s no longer exempt from waivers. Logan Mailloux is knocking at the door as a realistic graduate to the NHL too. Even with Savard set to move on, the Canadiens have David Reinbacher in the pipeline.
The idea is Reinbacher was drafted to be the team’s top-pairing right-handed defenseman. You have to believe the hope is at least one of Barron/Mailloux develop into a top-four at least. Based on his contract, the Canadiens obviously see Guhle as the same. So, he is going to have play on his natural left side eventually. It makes sense to put him back there as soon as possible, which would also lead to a natural improvement in his play. Even if only due to the money that will be owed to him, the expectation must be that he will develop further into (more of) a core piece eventually. This season is a logical starting point.
Cole Caufield
Maybe it’s not fair (it isn’t) that Cole Caufield be subject to criticism after scoring a career-high 65 points. However, after he scored 26 goals in 46 games in a injury-shortened 2022-23, he faced high expectations that he would become the team’s first 40-goal scorer since Vincent Damphousse 30 years ago.
Obviously, Caufield ended up with “just” 28 (37 assists), in a season during which he displayed more all-around ability. That should arguably be the focus instead. Considering 2023-24 had been the first year of his eight-year, $62.8 million extension, some fans were still left with a sour taste in their mouths, though.
On the plus side, there’s no denying his shooting percentage took a dive to 8.9% when it had been at 16.5% (11.7% in his career). If he’s able to connect more on his shots, to which fans had grown accustomed, he could realistically join Nick Suzuki as a point-per-game threat on the top line.
Juraj Slafkovsky
Juraj Slafkovsky obviously complements Caufield and Suzuki on the top line. As an ex-first-overall pick (2022), expectations were high from the jump, when he made the NHL as an 18-year-old. Buried in the lineup, he arguably failed to live up to them with a 10-point rookie season (39 games). He started off 2023-24 just as slowly with seven points in his first 29 games. However, getting promoted to the top line, he finished with 20 goals and 50 points (43 points in his last 53 games).
The turnaround is a testament to both Slafkovsky’s pedigree and chemistry with his linemates. Based on how much the Canadiens have invested in his development, it simply makes sense they would keep the line together, keeping him in the best position to succeed. In such an instance, it’s a quasi-conservative estimate he keeps up the same scoring pace over an entire season, especially considering Caufield’s continuing to develop and Suzuki is in his prime.
Slafkovsky may not be on the verge of hitting a point per game, especially since Suzuki, the team’s projected top offensive weapon, technically hasn’t himself. However, all three members of the top line definitely have the potential to become more prolific even if only based on how teams can ill afford to focus their defense solely on them any longer.
Patrik Laine
Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes acquired star-forward Patrik Laine in the hopes he would thrive in a huge, hockey-mad market like Montreal. Hughes said as much in the post-trade media availability, at least.
The one-time 44-goal scorer should slot into the top six automatically, as that’s where he would be most effective, adding a new dimension to the team’s offense. Seeing as the top line should for all intents and purposes stay as is, that gives the Habs the luxury of having two lines with significant firepower.
Of course, Laine’s 44-goal season was all the way back in 2017-18. Last season, he scored only six (nine points) in 18 games before getting injured and eventually entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Since having cleared, there are still no guarantees he rediscovers his scoring touch, but, based on the fact he’s still 26 and the Canadiens gave up next to nothing to acquire him, it was worth the risk.
In that regard, no one is necessarily counting on him to make or break the team. However, it’s fair to say he would end up disappointing if he failed to come close to living up to his $8.7 million cap hit, which now leads the team (excluding the “retired” Carey Price’s $10.5 million). There’s undeniable pressure on him one way or another, especially if he hopes to cash in as an unrestricted free agent in 2026, once his current contract expires.
Kirby Dach
Assuming he’s finally healthy, Kirby Dach is the likeliest player to centre Laine on the second line. Everyone is hoping Dach picks up where he left off two games into 2023-24, when he suffered a season-ending injury. With that in mind, having earned the job out of training camp last season, he’s done nothing to lose it. Consider the theory the first line is all but written into the lineup in permanent ink. Based on Dach’s complete game and his tendency to get the best out of his linemates the previous season, he should be a shoo-in this for the role this season too.
In that sense, Dach is a victim of his own success the previous season, when he broke out relatively speaking. In 2022-23, his first with the Canadiens, he scored 38 points in 58 games. His play elicited projections that he would one day usurp Suzuki as the team’s No. 1 centre. While the latter’s 77-point 2023-24 campaign has effectively quashed suggestions to that effect for now, there’s significant pressure on Dach to a) produce like he did b) over as close to an 82-game schedule as possible, with him having hit 70 only once before.
Thankfully, the Canadiens have Alex Newhook as something as a backup plan, as he filled in admirably as a top-six centre down the stretch last season, in Dach’s absence. However, for the Habs to truly have a shot at competing for a playoff spot (at which the acquisition of Laine hints), they need to be able to ice three decent lines at least.
It’s impossible to predict to what degree Dach returns to form after an injury as severe as the one he suffered. However, it’s clear the Canadiens invested a great deal more to acquire him than Laine (officially, first and third-round 2022 picks), with a longer-term plan in mind. Just in the short term though, a healthy Dach, not Laine, is the team’s key to success. Dach technically only has higher to go after his abysmal 2023-24, but the level he reaches will dictate how far the Habs go too.
