The 2023-24 season will be important for the Montreal Canadiens as general manager (GM) Kent Hughes continues his rebuild plan. Last season, the team had minimal improvement in the standings but saw significant improvement on the ice, establishing an entertaining style while remaining competitive in most games.
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In 2022-23, the Canadiens led the NHL in man-games lost to injury with 657 games. This included half a dozen season-ending injuries. Because of that, 38 different players dressed for at least one game – 14 of which were rookies, including five defensemen. Only Nick Suzuki played in all 82 games. Fewer injuries this season alone would be a significant upgrade over last season.
Using the roster that is expected to play in the NHL next season and their rates of production when healthy, here’s a look at what could be a reasonable prediction for the team’s offence in 2023-24.
Canadiens Improve by Subtraction
Last season, the team carried excess veterans who are now on the downside of their careers. While unfortunate that it never worked out for Jonathan Drouin in Montreal, his departure will be mutually beneficial and create an opening for a younger forward, like Alex Newhook, to compete for a top-six role. The Habs paid full value to the Colorado Avalanche for Newhook, and at that price, we can expect him to take the next step in his development, just as Kirby Dach did last season.
Another win for Montreal was trading Joel Edmundson. The 29-year-old defenseman was a significant part of the blue line and helped the Canadiens reach the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. But thanks to his injury history, his ability to play at that level is likely long gone. While the team benefited from his leadership and experience, his departure provides opportunities for the young, up-and-coming blueliners and should improve the team’s overall defence as his possession stats – his Corsi for (CF%) of 35.7% – points to a defender who was often trapped in his own zone and has lost a step.
There is still more addition by subtraction required from Hughes – like moving Mike Hoffman – to create space for younger players to make their way up to the NHL, players such as Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Jesse Ylonen.
Canadiens Will See Improvement
What can we reasonably expect from the 2023-24 edition of the Canadiens? Are they a playoff team? No. That is too much to expect from a team in its second full season of a rebuild. However, the team should compete for a playoff spot, even if they spend the season with it just out of reach. That alone will be a jump forward and could be achieved by the roster remaining healthy.
How much will they improve over last season? In 2022-23, the Habs finished 29th in the NHL with 305 goals against (GA), for an average goals against per game (GA/G) of 3.72. With the same young and inexperienced defence expected to return, it’s unlikely they will significantly improve statistically. But the experience they gain is a necessary step in their development.
Last season, the Habs also finished 26th in the NHL in goals for (GF) with 227, which is an average of 2.77 goals for per game (GF/G). This season, that number should rise, especially with Newhook in the lineup. His skill set is well-suited for head coach Martin St. Louis’s style. He plays with speed and generates offence off the rush, which is an ideal fit for the Canadiens. Noewhook’s hockey IQ and vision will also greatly benefit an abysmal power play (PP) that finished 29th in the NHL at 16.1%. He scored 14 goals while averaging under 14 minutes of ice time per game. If he’s given top-six minutes and time on the power play this season, he should score 20 goals.
Cole Caufield missed 36 games last season, which limited him to 26 goals. However, he was on pace to score 48 over a full season. He has been a prolific scorer at every level, and the pace at which he scores in the NHL points to that trend continuing. Even if he misses time and only plays around 70 games, his scoring rate under St. Louis should allow him to reach at least 35 goals. He may end up scoring 40, but 35 is a more reasonable expectation, as he is still reliant on his centers to generate some of his scoring opportunities.
Next is Dach, who missed significant time as well. He scored 14 goals in 58 games, putting him on pace to score 22, and he should be expected to take another step forward in 2023-24.
Josh Anderson has proven that his shoulder injury is not an issue. His 21 goals in 69 games put him on a 24-goal pace over 82 games. If injuries are less of a concern, Anderson shouldn’t need to spend a season building chemistry with a rotating parade of linemates, and a slight increase from 21 to 24 goals isn’t unreasonable.
Brendan Gallagher scored eight goals in 38 games, putting him on pace for 18 goals last season. His days of being a 30-goal scorer are behind him, but if he can play a full season or at least miss fewer games, he could reach the 15-goal plateau in 70 games with the same rate of scoring from last season.
The team’s 2022 first-overall pick, Juraj Slafkovsky, scored four goals in 39 games, putting him on pace for eight goals last season while playing a very limited bottom-six role. Before his injury, he was given some PP time. The expectations for him last season were unreasonably high because fans tend to forget that 18-year-olds aren’t made for the NHL. Even in a third-line role, but with increased time on the PP, he should be able to score 15 goals this season as he continues his development.
Finally, last season saw defenseman Mike Matheson have a career-high in points despite only playing 48 games. He was on pace to score 13 goals, two more than his career high of 11. Part of what fuelled his improved play was his added motivation of playing in his hometown, but his ice time also jumped to over 24 minutes per game. That added time was because he became the team’s number-one blueliner, a role that should continue this season. So, it’s reasonable to expect 11 goals from him in 2023-24.
Reasonable Canadiens’ Outcome
If the rest of the lineup maintains their previous scoring pace, the Canadiens should be able to score 250 goals this season. This could mean a jump from 26th in NHL scoring to 21st. Of course, there will still be some injuries, possibly even trades, that will impact the team, but that shouldn’t change the projection too much.
Because most of the roster is under 25 years old, is still developing, and has yet to reach their prime, a player could suddenly take a leap forward in their progression and boost the team’s goals scored and make the Habs even more competitive, but that would be a surprise.
Scoring 250 goals might be a modest increase, but the fact that it equals 3.04 GF/G, up from 2.77 GF/G, should have a significant impact on the team’s place in the standings. Even if there is no improvement on defence, the goal increase and improved health should equal more wins.
Last season, the Canadiens had a 31-45-6 record. Of those 45 losses, many were by one goal. If this increase in goal production leads to just five more wins and five more overtime losses, they would be above .500 with a point total of 83. While that might leave them nine points back of the 92 points the Florida Panthers needed to sneak into the final playoff spot, it does point to a Canadiens team on the rise and could keep them in playoff contention well into March.
