Short of a miracle, the Montreal Canadiens will not make the playoffs to end 2023-24. As soon as each Habs fan comes to that same conclusion, they can shift their expectations moving forward. As soon as general manager Kent Hughes does, on the off chance he hasn’t yet, he can shift his priorities accordingly.
Related: Canadiens Show Their True Selves as Sellers Ahead of 2024 Trade Deadline
Now 10 points back of the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot (one game in hand), the Canadiens have entered the All-Star break on a low. They’ve lost a lot of ground since heading into their last break, at the holidays, just four points out, pointing to a need to reassess what constitutes a successful 2023-24 season.
Here are the top five ways they can still make it happen:
5. Finish as Low in the Standings as Possible
The Canadiens are not a playoff team, but a lottery team instead. Even though they would theoretically benefit from the best odds as possible to come out on top of the NHL Draft Lottery, they have to be realistic. They’re simply not going to beat out the historically bad San Jose Sharks or the Connor Bedard-less Chicago Blackhawks, who have recently overtaken them for the last spot in the NHL.
Still, even if they maintain the status quo, they’re going to get a great player. Plus, with so many defensemen rising in the rankings in the recent past, they’re also in good position to get the chance to draft a great forward. Considering their fifth-from-last offense and how they chose defenseman David Reinbacher fifth overall in 2023 (over several projected-to-be-elite forwards), they’re in prime position where they are right now to address their needs. So, for all intents and purposes, any purported “tank” should be as far from “on” as possible. That’s why finishing as low in the standings as possible must be the lowest priority.
4. Don’t Get Embarrassed Regularly
Unfortunately, it’s become commonplace for the Canadiens to fail to put their best forward this entire January. They lost to the aforementioned Sharks as well as to the Ottawa Senators, who are tied for last in the Eastern Conference (twice). They also got shelled 9-4 by the Boston Bruins.
Even in their one victory over their last five games, a last-minute 4-3 home win over the New York Islanders on Jan. 25, they gave up a three-goal lead. It’s apparent they need this break more than just about anyone to reset and hopefully find their bearings, because what had been a trademark under head coach Martin St. Louis last season, their generally consistent level of compete, has fallen by the wayside
The Canadiens may still be in the process of rebuilding, but they had seemingly already built a winning culture. If things don’t turn around, they could lose that. Obviously, wins and losses don’t really matter down the stretch considering the playoffs are all but a pipe dream. However, given the choice between getting embarrassed every game in one way or another or winning every so often through sheer hard work, the right one should be obvious based on No. 5 above.
3. Stay as Healthy as Possible
Part of being able compete regularly does stem from staying healthy. Thankfully, things have stabilized somewhat, with Christian Dvorak being the last regular to get placed on injured reserve nearly a full month ago. You can hold your excitement for now, as he’s still joined on the shelf by the likes of Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach (and Chris Wideman).
Indeed, despite having set separate records for man-games lost the last two seasons, the Canadiens haven’t exactly seen their luck take a turn for the better. They remain near the top of the league in that category.
The thing about injuries is they’re more so a reason a team can’t compete than an excuse. For example, if you’re built properly, you should have the organizational depth to withstand a reasonable amount of injuries. In the case of the Canadiens, “reasonable” admittedly may not have really applied over the last two years. However, there comes a point where you have to concede something needs to be addressed internally (beyond firing two key members of your medical staff).
If you’re consistently getting injured to this degree, you may not have to look far and wide for the reason you’re losing a lot. It’s pretty obvious. You do though have to find the reason why you can’t stay healthy though, because chances are good there is one. Ideally, the Canadiens find that reason soon, because there’s a lot more at stake than wins and losses, which are relatively meaningless at this stage of the game.
2. A Successful 2024 Trade Deadline
Effectively, the Canadiens need to protect their top assets ahead of the March 8 trade deadline. The last thing they want is a repeat of last year when Sean Monahan got injured, arguably costing them a first-round pick.
Having re-signed a cheap one-year last offseason, Monahan is a pending unrestricted free agent once again, and, if anything, his stock has gone up with more consistent production to the tune of 35 points in 49 games. All things taken into account, including his faceoff prowess, the Canadiens should have no problem getting that pick at least, based on what the Calgary Flames got for Elias Lindholm, the other top centre who had been available.
So, 2023-24 ending up a success does depend on how Hughes fares at the deadline. He must continue to build for the future, by securing future assets in exchange for current ones that simply aren’t paying the proper dividends. Granted, he can’t realistically just trade away all his veterans, but the focus must still be on properly developing the younger Canadiens.
1. The Development of Young Canadiens Players
They say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and that holds true here. To a degree, Hughes and company can’t worry about what happens with someone they haven’t even drafted yet, especially when their team generally consists of young players already.
At an average of 26.3 years old according to Left Wing Lock, they’re the third-youngest team in the NHL, with players like Cole Caufield (23), Juraj Slafkovsky (20), Nick Suzuki (24), Kaiden Guhle (22), Jordan Harris (23), Jayden Struble (22) and Arber Xhekaj (23). Xhekaj is of particular interest after St. Louis recently made him a healthy scratch after he took two penalties against the Islanders on Jan. 23 (soon after returning from a well-documented demotion to the American Hockey League).
Of course, to be fair Harris had sat out two games in a row and was due to get in himself. So, even though the timing is unfortunate, the Canadiens do need to find a way to properly balance the ice time of their players and nurture each of them to the best of their ability. If they don’t, it won’t matter where or who they end up drafting this coming summer. It all plays into the aforementioned culture the team is apparently still developing… and its long-term prospects for success. An inevitable non-playoff finish doesn’t necessarily mean an overall bad finish after all. They can still turn this around.
