One great season does not make a career, but it can make a next deal if it comes in a contract year. The same goes for an impressive playoff run, which is why Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes must be wary of any pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who have starred in the postseason so far.
Truth be told, the Canadiens don’t need to sign anyone in free agency. Not only do they have a full roster for all intents and purposes already, but, as they’re coming off their second straight bottom-five finish, the notion of signing someone in their late twenties to early thirties (or beyond) to a presumably medium to long-term deal doesn’t coincide with their timeline to contend.
Nevertheless, Hughes should be especially wary of investing too much in what the following five players have accomplished this spring… investing anything at all in them in general. Here are the top five UFAs who have starred in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs the Canadiens must avoid, in increasing order:
5. Ivan Barbashev (Vegas Golden Knights)
Vegas Golden Knights forward Ivan Barbashev takes the last spot on this list as perhaps the best fit for the Canadiens. At just 27 years old, Barbashev is one of the youngest available UFAs and the leading scorer in that category this postseason, with an impressive 17 points (six goals) in 21 games. So, in all likelihood, Barbashev is going to get paid a lot of money this summer, hopefully just not from the Canadiens.
All else being equal, Barbashev is a good player and a fit anywhere in the lineup on just about any team. He’s proven that as someone who can contribute in a checking role during his days with the St. Louis Blues, when he regularly put up around 30 points, and following his trade to the Knights. However, as a center/left winger, he wouldn’t fit on the Canadiens.
The Canadiens already have a top-line left winger in Cole Caufield. They theoretically have two players in line for the second spot in Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Juraj Slafkovsky. Sure, Caufield could move to the right to make room on the left, but, if you’re going to do that, you may as well just start grooming Slafkovsky, the first-overall pick from 2022, to take the spot.
Logically, you wouldn’t sign Barbashev to a rich deal to fill it, when the hope is Slafkovsky will grow into that spot sooner rather than later, based on how much you’ve invested in the latter already. That would just drop Barbashev down the lineup, in which case you’d potentially be paying a bottom-six forward through the teeth. The same argument applies to down the middle, where the Canadiens have Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach.
Ultimately, Barbashev has the potential to be a useful player, but only at the right cost. While the Canadiens could theoretically afford it, they have to be wise with their cap space (like any other team). Paying a player like Barbashev top dollar simply to eventually drop down the lineup is not smart.
4. Max Domi (Dallas Stars)
It’s a repeat of Barbashev with Dallas Stars forward Max Domi. Domi has the same birth year, plays the same positions… and similarly isn’t a fit. No one should doubt it either, based on how the Canadiens have firsthand proof it shouldn’t out work between both parties.
The Habs seemingly got the best and worst of Domi, with front-row seats when he scored a career-high 28 goals and 72 points in 2018-19, after having having acquired him from the Arizona Coyotes. He then fell down the depth chart and back to earth with a 44-point effort in 2019-20, leading up to a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets (for Josh Anderson and a third-round pick).
It probably won’t be hard to find someone who believes the Canadiens won that trade hands down, getting a power forward of Anderson’s ilk for a forward who’s had an up-and-down career. All due respect to Anderson, who is valuable, that’s saying a lot when he hasn’t scored more than 32 points in any one season with the Habs (injuries notwithstanding).
However, Domi’s career is arguably on the upswing again, after a 56-point season with the Chicago Blackhawks and then Stars, adding a fourth-ranked 13 points (three goals) in the playoffs. It’s enough to warrant attention via free agency from at most 31 teams, but not the Canadiens, when ex-Hab Evgeni Dadonov scored 10 points, including one more goal.
Bottom line, is it didn’t work out with Dadonov, who scored just 18 points in 50 games with the Habs before the trade. It likely wouldn’t work out with Domi either… a second time. Why take a chance it does?
3. Ryan O’Reilly (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Ryan O’Reilly has built up quite a resume as one of the game’s top centers. He helped lead the St. Louis Blues to the 2019 Stanley Cup (a team on which Barbashev played, coincidentally) following a hockey trade the previous offseason. Most recently, as a rental, he helped lead the Leafs out of Round 1 for the first time in 19 years.
It’s hard to tell which feat is more impressive. Of course, considering the 2018-19 Blues were at one point in last place in the middle of the season, it makes sense to lean more toward the former accomplishment. Even so, all his long list of accomplishments means is he’s getting up there as a 32-year-old.
So, O’Reilly, who’s seen his offensive game start to suffer in recent seasons, would more so be a fit for a team looking for that one missing piece, not the Habs, who have several. Ironically, center is arguably not one of them, not only with Suzuki and Dach, but a few high-end prospects on the way.
2. Jesper Fast (Carolina Hurricanes)
Believe it or not, forward Jesper Fast led the Carolina Hurricanes in goals (six) these playoffs, justifying his inclusion on this list. The fact his name probably comes as a surprise further justifies it, as he typically wouldn’t be anyone’s first choice when it comes to free agency, based on his tempered scoring touch over the years.
That isn’t to say Fast doesn’t provide valuable depth scoring, because he does, but “depth” is obviously the operative word. The Canadiens simply have too many depth players remaining from the Marc Bergevin era (too easy) to justify dishing out a contract for a 31-year-old bottom-six right winger, who was entrusted with less ice time per game than beloved ex-Hab Jesperi Kotkaniemi these playoffs.
Ironically, Fast’s right-wing position is the one the Canadiens should most want to fill this postseason. They need a top-line right winger, but, clearly, Fast, who has 229 points in 630 career regular-season games, isn’t it, and, while, based on that fact, he’s unlikely to break the bank, the Canadiens can’t justify devoting a roster spot to someone new when they have their own prospects to worry about, from a developmental perspective.
1. Adin Hill (Golden Knights)
It’s a similar story in goal for the Canadiens. While Adin Hill has put together an impressive run for the Knights, with a .934 save percentage (SV%) so far these playoffs, all his story should hint at is how the Habs don’t need to pay top money for the goaltending to get them to the promised land. That obviously goes for Hill himself, this summer.
Related: What Canadiens Can Learn from 2023 Cup Semi-Finalists
Granted, Hill won’t command millions upon millions of dollars, but he is in line for a raise relative to his $2.175 million cap hit from this past season, which he undeniably earned. However, keep in mind, Hill wasn’t the Knights’ first choice to play goal this season. He was probably the fourth, behind the currently injured Robin Lehner, the at-one-time injured Laurent Brossoit and the eventually injured Logan Thompson.
Even Samuel Montembeault was considered a mere third-stringer once upon a time. Now, that probably isn’t fair to Hill, seeing as he outpaces his Canadiens counterpart in most statistical categories, but he’s also a(n admittedly just) 27-year-old goalie who has yet to establish himself as a starter in the NHL.
Hill could be a late-bloomer like Montembeault, but his career .914 SV% says he’s shown enough up to now to have warranted a shot in that regard. The career-high 27 games he got in this season suggests he may not have the endurance to, though.
Maybe he does. However, the Canadiens should instead be committed to finding out what they have in Montembeault this coming season, not someone new. Signing that someone new, especially someone who’s far from a sure thing, now of all times, when the Canadiens aren’t ready to contend, would be a curious decision.
If it makes sense to go after any free-agent goalie who’s starred these playoffs, it probably does Frederik Andersen of the Hurricanes. That’s a big “if,” though. Sure, Andersen has a league-leading 1.83 goals-against average, to go along with a .927 SV%, but he’s also going on 34 and coming off a mediocre regular season, which left a lot of unanswered questions. And, if an established goalie like Andersen has a lot of unanswered questions, you can bet dollars to doughnuts Hill has more. The Canadiens shouldn’t be betting on him as a result.
