Alex Holtz has had a rollercoaster-esque season thus far in 2023-24. During preseason, he was featured in a top-six role night in and night out. Following that, he was put in the bottom six to start the year, where he remained until he was benched just a couple of weeks ago. After his benching, he was slotted into the Devils’ Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes-less top-six alongside Michael McLeod, where he’s found his own and played as well as anyone can hope.
Profiling Holtz as a Player
Before delving into how and where he should be put in the lineup, we should first begin by contextualizing his play by pointing out that he is a passenger player. He’s unlike many of the Devils’ forwards in this sense, as the team is built on the likes of Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier: play drivers who can each carry the puck into the offensive at elite levels and drive the play forward. That’s not a part of Holtz’s game, which although it sounds damning, isn’t really an issue.
When I think of passenger players, the first name I think of is Patrik Laine — who, although he’s widely regarded as an excellent player, does not drive play. He, like Holtz, is best when he’s playing alongside an elite playdriver who gives him the ability to find open space to get a dangerous chance off. If there’s one thing that Holtz has proven in the first quarter of the season, it’s that he’s more than capable of finding an open area to shoot from.
As such, it’s important to keep in mind that Holtz truly needs to be put in a position to succeed if the Devils’ front office wants to see him hit his potential. Again, this might sound like a problem, but the Devils have play-drivers upon play-drivers in their lineup. Obviously, there are the big names — Hughes, Bratt, Meier, and Hischier. Beyond that, though, McLeod, Ondrej Palat, and Erik Haula, who will probably return at some point during the team’s upcoming road trip, are also capable of driving play at a high level. Keeping Holtz with one or several of these names will give him the highest possible chance of succeeding at the NHL level and turning into the goal-scoring star he’s shown flashes of.
Success Apart from Tierney and Bastian
Holtz spent far too much time on the fourth line playing alongside Chris Tierney and Nathan Bastian, neither of whom is particularly apt at play-driving. In the 25 minutes that the three of them have been on the ice at the same time at 5v5, the Devils control an astonishingly low 24.98% of the expected goals share (xG%). Averaging just five minutes per game at this strength, the trio has gotten thoroughly caved in, failing to generate many chances and giving up a ton at the same time. This lack of success culminated in a Holtz benching, with coach Lindy Ruff unrightfully citing “getting scored on” as the reason for Holtz being benched despite neither of the other two garnering the same punishment.
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Away from Tierney and Bastian, though, Holtz has an xG% of 54.59% — 30% higher than when the trio are on the ice together. Just about every facet of the Devils’ production is better with Holtz away from those two, too. With the three on the ice, the Devils produce just 9.21 scoring chances, 2.3 high-danger chances, and 41.46 shot attempts per 60 minutes. When Holtz is separated from the others, the Devils generate 35.47, 12.67, and 65.88 respectively. It’s legitimately night and day.
In particular, Holtz has found great success playing alongside McLeod, who he’s been stapled to for the last few games. Together, the two have a phenomenal 57.23 xG% — with McLeod using his excellent speed and transitional work to allow Holtz to find open space and generate a ton of chances. As practically all effective play drivers do, McLeod does the “hard” work for the passenger player: carrying the puck into the zone, winning battles in deep, and getting the puck to open players. It’s the perfect fit for Holtz, who, despite having an incredible shot and as immense a ceiling as you’ll find, has been placed out of the Devils’ top-six because of a plethora of talent in the Devils’ forward corps.
Holtz’s Role Moving Forward
I wouldn’t anticipate much to change for Holtz, especially now that he’s both producing excellent underlying metrics with McLeod and finding the scoresheet more as a result. If another winger were to go down with injury — the Devils seemingly can’t catch a break this year fighting the injury bug — I would genuinely hope that whoever gets slotted up into the top-six is someone other than Holtz. He and McLeod have been that scary of a duo.
With all this in mind, I think it’s high time for Holtz to receive legitimate credit for the player he’s blossomed into this season. He’s gotten a lot of slack from the fans, and even Lindy Ruff, for not being a two-way player. That’s not his role, though; it shouldn’t be expected of him. After all, is Connor McDavid touted for his defensive play? I’m not comparing the two, but it’s frustrating to see Holtz receive castigation for playing offensively-minded hockey — and succeeding with flying colors, no less.
