The New Jersey Devils took care of most of their housekeeping earlier this summer, namely re-signing Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier to eight-year extensions. But they also got restricted free agents Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian signed to new deals. The last bit of business was getting a new contract done with Kevin Bahl.
Early yesterday, the Devils announced they had signed Bahl to a two-year extension at an average annual value (AAV) of $1.05 million. He was the team’s last remaining RFA, meaning the Devils are at a full 23-man roster about a month and a half away from training camp.
Bahl was one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent Taylor Hall to the Arizona Coyotes in 2019. It’s taken him a little while to establish himself in the NHL, but his 2022-23 season showed he’s ready for a regular role. Let’s review his season and what the Devils should expect from him in 2023-24.
Bahl’s Improvement in 2022-23
Bahl did not start the season as a regular in the Devils’ lineup. Brendan Smith, a veteran who signed as a free agent a year ago, got most of the reps on the Devils’ third defense pair through the first few months of the season. It was about in mid-December when Bahl started to earn the trust of head coach Lindy Ruff and a regular role on defense.
Related: Metropolitan Division Only Got Better in 2023 Offseason
From Dec. 13 onward, Bahl appeared in 37 of the 42 games he played in 2022-23. He totaled seven points in those 37 games (eight for the season), but offense and producing points aren’t really his forte. Though he skates well and has puck-moving upside, he’s much more of a stay-at-home defenseman. And his defensive presence showed up in his five-on-five numbers.
Bahl finished the 2022-23 season with a 58.21 expected goals percentage (xG%), ranked eighth on the Devils. He was one of the team’s best shot-suppressing defensemen, allowing 2.38 expected goals per 60 minutes. Granted, it came in an incredibly sheltered role on the third pair, but he excelled in those minutes.
Bahl has started to come along in the NHL because his rush defense has improved since his NHL debut during the 2020-21 season. The game was too quick for him, and he’d get beaten off the rush quite often. As the game has slowed down for him as he’s matured, he’s become quite solid at zone-entry denials:
Though Bahl’s defensive impacts may not grade out that well in Andy & Rono’s model, his sample size is still relatively small. I’d expect that to improve as he becomes a regular, especially if he stays in a third-pair role in 2023-24.
Where Bahl Could Fit in the Devils’ 2023-24 Lineup
Bahl only played 22.6 percent of his minutes against elite competition in 2022-23, but that may change this coming season with Ryan Graves now in Pittsburgh and Damon Severson in Columbus.
The good news is that Bahl handled his minutes against elite competition quite well in 2022-23, totaling a 54.4 Corsi for percentage (CF%). I’d be surprised if he’s suddenly playing 35-plus percent of his minutes against opponents’ top lines this coming season. But he is one of the candidates who could slide onto a pair alongside John Marino since Graves signed with the Penguins.
Bahl and Marino logged some ice time together this past season, but it was only in a sample of 41 minutes. Still, they posted a 62.29 xG%, so there may be something to work with moving forward. Odds are Luke Hughes will end up playing alongside Marino sooner than later, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bahl get preseason minutes with Marino if Ruff is seeking shutdown pair like he had with Graves.
As enticing as it may be to pair up Bahl and Marino, the latter will log close to 35 percent of his minutes against elite competition. The better fit for Bahl would be with Colin Miller, who the Devils acquired in a trade with the Dallas Stars on July 1.
Miller’s offensive production has regressed since his breakout year with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18, but his defensive game is still quite good. He’s one of the better third-pair defenders in the league, and while Bahl might not dominate with him as much as he did with Severson this past season, they should still be a solid bottom pair.
The last possible option for Bahl could be playing alongside Dougie Hamilton. It’s not as farfetched an idea as it seems, either. Bahl and Hamilton have logged 221 minutes together since the start of 2021-22 and have posted a 51.18 CF% and 51.97 xG% at five-on-five as a duo. And there’s good reason to believe it could work, too.
A Bahl and Hamilton pair wouldn’t get the difficult defensive minutes, freeing up Hamilton to attack offensively with a steady defensive presence in Bahl alongside him. It also sets up Ruff to have a potential Jonas Siegenthaler and Marino shutdown pair, with Luke Hughes in a sheltered third-pair role where he can feast offensively, much like Severson did in 2022-23:
- Siegenthaler – Marino
- Bahl – Hamilton
- L. Hughes – Miller
- Smith
Once Ruff finds defense pairs he likes, he tends to stick with them for long stretches, much more so than he does with his forward combos. The look above may be how he starts 2023-24.
Bahl Could Be Among Final Offseason Moves
After re-signing Bahl, the Devils have $1,919,167 left in cap space this offseason. They have been in the rumor mill for a goaltender for what seems like forever, but nothing has materialized yet. And perhaps it won’t, either. With their remaining cap space, it’s getting difficult to see how they make a goalie trade work without moving money AND salary retention.
One option would be Logan Thompson, whose cap hit is just $766,667 for two more seasons. But any rumors around his availability have died down since free agency at the beginning of July. That’s not to say the Devils are ready for summer vacation after re-signing Bahl, but they could be close to done.
If Bahl is the last transaction the Devils make other than some PTOs ahead of training camp, it was a good bit of business. Evolving-Hockey had him projected for a cap hit of $954,400 on a two-year deal, right about on par for what he signed for. He’s emerging as a reliable third-pair defenseman, and having only turned 23 at the end of June, he should continue to get better over the coming years.
* * *
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
