Depending on where you look, Vegas sportsbooks have the New Jersey Devils among the third- to fourth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup in 2023-24. Considering they finished with 52 wins and 112 points a season ago, that’s not a surprise. It would take a lot going wrong for them to miss the playoffs, so they should be buyers at the trade deadline for the second consecutive season.
There could be a couple of needs come the deadline in late February/early March. But for today, we’ll focus on defense. After losing Ryan Graves in free agency and trading Damon Severson, the Devils will have a new look on defense with Kevin Bahl and Luke Hughes taking on full-time roles.
Hughes should succeed, but Bahl is a bit of a question mark if he takes on Graves’ shutdown role alongside John Marino from a season ago. He played well in third-pair minutes in 2022-23, but can he handle the difficult defensive assignments that come as Marino’s defense partner? Either way, a veteran left-handed shot could be a target for general manager Tom Fitzgerald if he chooses to pursue defense as a deadline upgrade.
Brenden Dillon
If the Jets are out of playoff contention come the deadline, there could be a massive selloff in Winnipeg, given the players entering the final years of their contracts. One of those is Brenden Dillon, who’s still among the best defensive defensemen in the NHL.
Dillon’s minutes shifted to more of a second-pair role a season ago with the emergence of Josh Morrisey, but that likely benefited him bouncing back. His even-strength defense was worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 8.8 in 2022-23, the second-best number among all defensemen. The only blueliner whose even-strength defense was more valuable was Mackenzie Weegar.
Dillon’s entry defense has fallen off, but he still defends the forecheck well. His defensive game is still more than good enough for him to be the steady stay-at-home presence that Dougie Hamilton needs as a partner. And he’d likely be a better fit alongside Hamilton than Marino since coach Lindy Ruff likes to free up Hamilton offensively.
That, in turn, would move Jonas Siegenthaler on to a pair with Marino. Putting the team’s two best shutdown defenders together might seem counterintuitive. But if Dillon, a good shutdown defender himself, is on the roster, there shouldn’t be an issue. At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, he’s likely someone Fitzgerald would have on his radar if he needs a defensive upgrade heading into the playoffs.
Nikita Zadorov
Like the Jets, the Calgary Flames have plenty of players entering the final years of their contracts. Nikita Zadorov is one of them and could be of interest to the Devils come the trade deadline. He’s coming off a career-high 14-goal season. But I wouldn’t expect that kind of production from him moving forward, even though his offensive game has value; his even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 13 over the last three seasons.
While Zadorov is good for around 20-25 points a season, he’s much more of a stay-at-home defenseman, and a very good one at that. His even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 12.7 over the last three seasons, a top-20 number among blueliners over that stretch. When looking at his impacts, he’s excelled defensively at even strength since the 2020-21 season:
Zadorov is a high-end defensive defenseman who’s far from a black hole offensively. At 6-foot-6, 248 pounds, he’d add a physical presence on the back end for the Devils. If Fitzgerald is seeking a defensive upgrade come the deadline, he might be his top target if the Flames end up as sellers.
Gustav Forsling
The Florida Panthers are coming off an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final, but it won’t be easy reaching the playoffs again in a much more competitive and balanced Atlantic Division. If they’re out of the playoff picture come the deadline, they could look to sell some of their expiring contracts.
One target for the Devils could be Gustav Forsling, who finished last season with 13 goals and 41 points in 82 games. He’s a different defenseman from Dillon and Zadorov in that he’s much more offensive-minded. His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 23.9 over the last three seasons, the eighth-best rate among defensemen. His defensive game may not be a strength, but he’s not a liability, making him a solid two-way defender.
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Why would the Devils target someone like Forsling if they already have Hamilton and Luke Hughes, who can create offensively from the back end? One reason the Devils’ offense was so dynamic a season ago is because Severson crushed it in an offensive, third-pair role. If they aren’t getting that kind of offense from the back end this season, they’ll need to find someone who can play the Severson role.
Forsling would be the ideal replacement because he’s a high-end, puck-moving defenseman who can create quite a bit of offense from the blue line. He’s a good passer and generates plenty of quality chances from his shooting ability. He has a cap hit of $2,666,667, so the Devils should have plenty of deadline cap space for him; they project to have $8,924,127 in deadline cap space as of now.
Honorable Mentions
Shayne Gostisbehere
Along the same line of thinking with Forsling, if the Devils need an offensive upgrade from the blue line, Shayne Gostisbehere would be a fit. He struggles defensively, so he’d need sheltered minutes. But with his offensive skill set, he’d be the ideal fit to play the Severson role if the Devils don’t find it internally. He recently signed a one-year deal worth $4.125 million with the Detroit Red Wings. He’d be a viable trade target if they’re out of contention.
Noah Hanifin
Zadorov’s teammate in Calgary, reports earlier this summer indicated that Noah Hanifin has no interest in re-signing with the Flames beyond the 2023-24 season. He’ll likely be on the move in the coming months and should be a hot commodity on the trade market.
Hanifin is a legit top-four defenseman with good two-way impacts, but he’s an honorable mention because his trade price could be more than the Devils are willing to pay. Perhaps Fitzgerald decides to go for a big fish if Hanifin is still available around the deadline. But my guess is blueliners like Dillon or Zadorov, who should cost less, would be preferable options.
Bahl & Hughes Will Determine Deadline Needs
The Devils’ defense should still be solid in 2023-24, but having one of the top units in the NHL depends on how much of a leap Luke Hughes and Bahl take in their new roles. I’m more confident in Hughes making an impact, especially if Ruff uses him in the Severson role.
Bahl played well to close the 2022-23 regular season and was solid in the playoffs. Can he handle Graves’ role if that’s how the Devils use him? If so, acquiring a defenseman won’t be on the Devils’ to-do list at the trade deadline. But if Fitzgerald seeks a defensive upgrade, these are some defenders to keep an eye on throughout the 2023-24 season.
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Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey
