Coming into their Round 1 series, the New Jersey Devils were considered underdogs against the Carolina Hurricanes by all accounts. Then the Devils lost the first two games in Carolina, as well as two key defensemen in Luke Hughes and Brenden Dillon. Just before Game 3 on Friday, they were given a 15.8% chance to come back and move on.
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Defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler made a surprise return to the lineup after missing 80 days, but then Johnathan Kovacevic went down with an undisclosed injury. Brett Pesce has also been playing at “way less than 100 percent” according to head coach Sheldon Keefe, but the depleted Devils gutted out an inspiring Game 3 victory in double overtime to cut the series deficit in half (2-1).
Nervousness Setting In
Postgame reaction from Hurricanes fans showed a sense of worry, especially surrounding their performance on the road. Including Game 3, the Canes have won just 16 of 42 road games this season. “If we don’t get last change, we can’t win a game,” said one fan on X. “We gotta stop coming out flat against this (Devils) team. They are capable of beating us if we keep playing like the last 2 games,” said another. Players like Brent Burns and Andrei Svechnikov drew heavy criticism as well.
While the odds are still against the Devils, the dicey feeling in Carolina will only get worse if the Devils manage to rally to a series tie in front of their raucous home crowd. The pressure is already on the Canes. Not only are they expected to easily win the series, but this is their seventh straight season in the Stanley Cup Playoffs; they haven’t won more than two rounds in that span. Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s coaching style often brings out the best in a team’s depth but fails to mesh with high-end scoring talent (see: Mikko Rantanen’s Hurricanes tenure).
The Hurricanes don’t have a single point-per-game player on their roster. While they can usually eke out wins on most nights regardless, the lack of elite scoring (in comparison to to other playoff teams) can cause them to sometimes put together stretches of bad hockey.
From Apr. 4 to Apr. 17, the Hurricanes went 1-6-1 and got outscored 35-23. That included a dreadful .823 team save percentage (SV%). Frederik Andersen has been stellar in the first three playoff games (.943 SV%) but the 35-year-old hadn’t started consecutive games all season. It would be tough for him to maintain that level of production. And if they were to switch to his backup Pyotr Kochetkov at any point, there are no guarantees there: Kochetkov’s playoff career boasts a 1-4 record with a 4.01 goals against average and .863 SV%.
Furthermore, it’s been widely chronicled that the Devils need to win the special teams battle in order to have a chance in this series. So far, they haven’t come close to doing so. They haven’t scored a single power play goal but have given up a shorthanded goal and three power play goals. That’s another front the Devils can get some positive regression in.
In yesterday’s media availability, the Hurricanes praised the Devils for their physicality and pressure, as well as admitted they need to ramp up their own physicality. So far, the Devils have out-hit the Canes 146-111.
It’s very possible that given the circumstances, the Hurricanes can over-emphasize an increase in physicality, causing them to get away from their game. The Devils can take advantage of that.
No matter what, the Devils are in a good spot in the sense that there’s zero pressure on them. Down a bunch of key players, including both Hughes brothers, they aren’t expected to go anywhere. Meanwhile, Hurricanes’ brass knows that there’s a serious conversation to be had if they get bounced early once more in the playoffs.
In 2023, the Devils successfully completed a comeback from down 2-0 in their Round 1 series against the New York Rangers. There’s certainly no guarantee they’ll do so again, but they have absolutely nothing to lose. Similar to Game 3, it should be expected that they’ll leave it all on the line in Game 4.
