In a league that’s growing more offensively oriented, it wasn’t a surprise to see New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald target more scoring this offseason. When Elliotte Friedman reported that the Calgary Flames had made Tyler Toffoli available for trade, he was the ideal trade candidate for the Devils. A few days later, the Devils acquired Toffoli from the Flames for Yegor Sharangovich and a 2023 third-round pick.
Coming off a 34-goal, 73-point season, Toffoli will add quite a bit of value at his $4.25 million cap hit. But what will he actually provide to the Devils’ lineup this coming season? He’s a bit of a different player than they had on their roster beforehand and will add some new elements, but he’ll also give the Devils plenty more of what they had before acquiring him.
Toffoli Has a Versatile Offensive Arsenal
In-Zone Offense
At least this past season, Toffoli was one of the best offensive zone shot creators, ranking in the 99th percentile in in-zone shots. The Devils have some high-end in-zone creators in Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier, so adding Toffoli to the fray gives them another weapon who can create his own offense in the offensive zone.
Not only does Toffoli create his own shots and chances, but he also ranked in the 94th percentile in shots created off high-danger passes. If on a line with either Hughes or Nico Hischier, he will get plenty of chances off high-danger passes. And odds are he will get a quality shot off.
Rush Offense
Toffoli is far from the fastest skater in the world, but at least with the Flames in 2022-23, his rush offense was adequate. He ranked in the 63rd percentile in rush offense and 75th percentile in rush shots. That’s the Devils’ primary playing style, so while that may not be his bread and butter, he should be able to create enough offense off the rush.
The caveat with Toffoli’s rush offense is don’t expect him to be the main facilitator because of his skating. That might seem like a cause for concern, given the Devils’ playing style. But with high-end skaters and play drivers like Bratt, Hughes, Hischier and Meier, they can do all the heavy lifting to set up Toffoli for chances.
High-Volume and Efficient Shooting
The Devils have two of the highest-volume shooters in the NHL in Meier and Hughes. Toffoli isn’t at their level, but he isn’t that far off from them. He averaged 11.51 shots on goal per 60 minutes at five-on-five this past season, ranked first on the Flames. That rate would have also ranked first on the Devils.
Hughes and Meier ranked in the top 10 in shots on goal this past season. Toffoli ranked 22nd, but did it at a slightly more efficient rate at five-on-five. Time will tell if he can keep up that level of high-volume shooting. I’d expect a bit of regression in that regard, but he’s consistently totaled over 200 shots on goal per season throughout his career. And with the Devils’ offense, he will get shooting opportunities.
Rebound Attempts
Because Toffoli is a high-volume shooter, he does a good job of creating rebound opportunities. He averaged 1.57 rebounds created per 60 minutes this past season, one of the top rates on the Flames. Meier and Bratt averaged more rebounds created than Toffoli. But two of the Devils’ top five rebound generators may both not be back with the Devils in 2023-24.
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Miles Wood signed a six-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche in free agency, so he’s definitely not returning. Surprisingly, Tomáš Tatar is still a UFA, so perhaps there’s a path back to the Devils once we get clarity on their goaltending situation. If he doesn’t return, the team will benefit from having Toffoli in their lineup to make up for some rebound creation they’d lose from Tatar and Wood playing elsewhere.
Even Strength and Power Play Scoring
Toffoli had struggled to score at five-on-five in 2021-22, but he rebounded this season, averaging 2.41 points per 60 minutes. While he’ll get his fair share of points at even strength, he should also help improve a Devils’ power play that was good but not great this past season.
Toffoli has been one of the more efficient power-play scorers in the NHL over the last three seasons, averaging 5.66 points per 60 minutes. That’s a more efficient rate than Alex DeBrincat, Brayden Point and Jack Eichel, to name a few. While he’s averaged 3.18 goals/60 when up a man, he’s not just a goal scorer. He’s been an efficient playmaker, too, averaging 3.66 assists/60.
The good thing about Toffoli on the power play is he will provide different looks from different areas of the ice. He’s a solid playmaker from behind the net, but he’ll get into different shooting positions to score goals. He can provide a net-front presence and score from the slot, but he’ll also line up on the half wall in the Ovechkin spot and put his shot to good use:
The Devils may have almost too many options for the first power-play unit. But Toffoli will figure into the man advantage, given his past success. There are different ways for head coach Lindy Ruff to use him, which should help find the proper role for him.
Shorthanded Threat
Toffoli doesn’t play much time on the penalty kill, but he is a threat to score when he gets shorthanded minutes. He’s averaged 2.10 points/60 and has four shorthanded goals over the last three seasons. The Devils are unlikely to use him as a primary penalty killer, but he could see time toward the end of a kill when they may be looking to get a chance shorthanded.
Can Toffoli Repeat His 2022-23?
Toffoli is coming off the best season of his career. He’s had 30-goal seasons before and has produced at that pace in years where he played fewer than 82 games. Given the Devils’ offense, finishing with 30-plus isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Can he hit 70-plus points again? It’s possible, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it.
Prior to the 2022-23 season, Toffoli averaged 30 goals and 58 points per 82 games from 2019-2022. Given some of his offensive traits, plus who his linemates should be, a 30/30 season seems like a reasonable target for him. Not only will he add some different elements to the team’s offense, but he also gives them more of what they already have. That should only make the 2023-24 Devils more difficult for teams to defend.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, microstat data from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey
