Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the New Jersey Devils struggled to consistently find the back of the net in 2024-25. Their season-to-season offensive production dropped nearly 10%…and that’s partially masked by a red-hot power play, as even strength scoring dropped ~16%. (via Natural Stat Trick)
Related: Getting to Know Devils’ Mikhail Yegorov
The Devils’ 69 goals at 5v5 after Jan. 1 ranked 31st in the league. It’s obvious by now that a lack of forward depth was the main culprit, but they didn’t get as much help as they could have from their back end. Let’s take a look.
Great Defense, Mediocre Offense
While Fitzgerald has often been criticized for a lack of depth within the forward group, he deserves tons of credit for the defensive improvement. As a unit, their 152 goals allowed was a top 10 mark in the league, headlined by defensive stalwarts like Johnathan Kovacevic and Jonas Siegenthaler.
However, they received just 161 points from members of the back end, which ranked 20th in the NHL – a far cry from the elite ranks like Colorado (211) and Tampa Bay (208). To no surprise, Luke Hughes led with 44 points; Dougie Hamilton was right behind him with 40. Nobody else notched more than 17 (Brett Pesce).
Now, in all honesty, a team can be quite successful without a ton of offensive production from their back end. The Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers actually received fewer points from defensemen in 2024-25, as their 152 points ranked 22nd in the league. But they had the depth in the forward group to make up for it, plus improved at the deadline by adding Seth Jones.
With the Devils’ defensive success, it would probably hurt their defensemen more than it would benefit them to change their style of play in favor of more offense. However, given that their forward group is still lacking one or two key pieces, some added production from the back end surely won’t hurt. There’s reason to think that can happen without sacrificing head coach Sheldon Keefe’s structured defensive system.
Reason for Optimism
21-year-old Simon Nemec will have the opportunity to follow up a stellar playoff run by earning a full-time job in the league. He showed remarkable poise and sneaky-good offensive ability to go along with a mature defensive game. In 2023-24, he notched 19 points in just 60 games, which would extrapolate to ~26 points in a full season. Now two years older, if he could improve that towards the 30-35 point range, that’s a big help.
Just incredible stuff from Simon Nemec.
— Daniel Amoia (@daniel_amoia) April 26, 2025
The narrative surrounding his entire season changed in the span of a few hours.#NJDevils pic.twitter.com/UGha5GXS9L
Furthermore, Seamus Casey could potentially chip in at times, despite still being a work in progress on the defensive side. While he shot at an unsustainable 33.3% in 2024-25, eight points in 14 NHL games for a young defenseman is nothing to scoff at. You could make the argument that based on pure offensive ability, he’s the third-most talented d-man in the Devils’ organization, behind L. Hughes and Hamilton. If he’s able to improve on his defensive game, Keefe’s deployment of Casey in the right situations could become yet another offensive boost from the back end.
At 5v5, Pesce, Kovacevic, Siegenthaler and Brenden Dillon individually combined for 11 expected goals but scored just six. All regular defensemen except Hamilton finished with an on-ice goal share percentage less than their expected numbers. This signals that some positive regression should come.
Lastly, and most importantly, L. Hughes has the resume and tools to break out and become one of the league’s best offensive defensemen. After spending a large chunk of last season alongside Pesce, who complements Luke’s rush game perfectly, it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2025-26 was when the big breakout happened. While Hughes’ 44 points in 71 games was great on its own, half of that point production came in the final 22 games of the season. For nearly a two-month span, he looked every part of one of the game’s best.
Reason for Pessimism
Despite being one of the best offensive defensemen in the game for quite some time, Hamilton has struggled to stay healthy. All his seasons as a Devil except 2022-23 have left some to be desired, especially considering that if he’s not producing offensively, he’s typically not much of a defensive stalwart.
The fall-off isn’t as dramatic as some may make it appear, as his 40 points last season was still top 30 in the league. But Hughes starting to take the reins as the team’s best defenseman, Hamilton will possibly be forced to PP2 duties, which will only harm his point production more. Hamilton’s 2024-25 season was his least average time-on-ice per game since the 2018-19 season. The Devils will hope the 32-year-old has a healthy season and re-establishes himself as an offensive force, but there are no guarantees. If Hamilton regresses any more, that could become a significant blow to the back end’s offensive production.
Lastly, for two straight seasons, the injury bug has plagued the Devils at the most inopportune times. A lot of it has been pure misfortune, but they can’t afford any long-term injuries to key defensive contributors. Kovacevic will miss the start of the season after undergoing surgery for a knee injury suffered in the playoffs.
Optimism > Pessimism
With so much young talent, there seems to be more reason for optimism than pessimism. In a perfect world, the Devils’ forward group is strong enough to where the offensive production from the back end doesn’t matter as much. But with limited cap space, they’re still arguably missing a third-line center and a top six addition. Any help from the back end, without sacrificing defensive structure and success, would be super beneficial.
