The NHL Draft is one week away, and that also means it’s rumor season. There was a juicy one involving the New Jersey Devils, courtesy of Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic. Connor Hellebuyck, who is atop many trade boards this offseason, is open to an extension in a sign-and-trade with the Devils, among other teams:
“The New Jersey Devils are one of the teams that we understand Connor Hellebuyck would be interested in signing an extension with in a sign-and-trade. Now, they’re not the only team, of course.
New Jersey has investigated it. They have had a conversation with Winnipeg. But I think what probably gives New Jersey pause and some other teams is the kind of money Hellebuyck would want in an extension. We believe that to be in the Andrei Vasilevskiy range, $9.5 million a year.”
– Pierre LeBrun via TSN’s Insider Trading
LeBrun also mentioned that Hellebuyck’s ask would have to come down for the Devils to get more involved in trade talks. If that’s the case, they’re right in not getting seriously engaged because there are big-time risks in giving Hellebuyck an extension at that price. Let’s look at why that’s the case.
Devils Already Have a Solid Tandem
Before getting into Hellebuyck more in-depth, let’s review the Devils’ current goaltending situation. Last summer, the team’s goaltending was in dire straits. Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier were coming off injury-plagued seasons, forcing the Devils to use seven different netminders. The result was giving up around 60 goals more than expected, depending on what stats site you use.
Related: Devils Don’t Need to Give Up Assets for a Goalie
That’s why Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald went out and acquired Vitek Vanecek from the Washington Capitals at the 2022 draft. Vanecek was an above-league-average netminder in his two seasons with the Capitals. And that’s what he was in his first year with the Devils, as he finished the 2022-23 campaign with a .911 save percentage (SV%) and 5.1 goals saved above expected. With the league average SV% being .899 this past season, that’s a job well done from Vanecek.
The plan going into 2022-23 was to use Blackwood and Vanecek as a tandem. While it started that way, Blackwood struggled with injuries for the second straight year. The result was Akira Schmid getting thrust into a role the Devils weren’t expecting him to be in again, much like in 2021-22. But unlike that year, he took the opportunity and ran with it.
Between the regular season and playoffs, the 22-year-old Schmid (he’s turned 23 since the season ended) finished with a .921 SV% in 27 games. He stopped 8.2 goals above expected, placing him just a bit ahead of Vanecek but in a smaller sample size. He even took over for Vanecek in the playoffs and helped the Devils rally from a 2-0 series deficit against the New York Rangers to win in seven games in Round 1.
Goalies are voodoo, but if Schmid is producing at this level as a 22-year-old, there’s certainly plenty of potential for him to be the Devils’ No. 1 netminder in time. He’s had success at every level he’s played in so far. Schmid was a force in the USHL and was the league’s goaltender of the year in 2020-21. Even though he struggled in the NHL in 2021-22, he posted a .911 SV% in 38 games with the Utica Comets in the AHL.
I doubt the Devils would trade Schmid in a Hellebuyck deal, given his age and comparable production to Hellebuyck at 22-23 years old. Looking at what the Devils have in him and Vanecek, they don’t “need” a goalie, but Hellebuyck is a different animal. He’s a top-five or even -three netminder in the league that would make the Devils a force and Stanley Cup contender. Trading for him would be costly, but the real issue is a contract extension, which should raise serious red flags.
Hellebuyck Trade & Extension Won’t Be Cheap
A Hellebuyck extension clearly won’t be cheap, but nor would a trade. The Winnipeg Jets have no desire to strip it down to the bolts and rebuild. They’ll want some assets in return that could help them stay competitive in the Western Conference immediately.
For cap purposes, at least for 2021-22, Vanecek would probably have to be part of the package. The Devils have had talks about trading Yegor Sharangovich, so he could be part of a deal if the Jets have interest in him. But if not, it could take parting with a top prospect like Alexander Holtz. Add in a draft pick, a 2025 first since the Devils’ 2024 first can’t move due to conditions from the Timo Meier trade, and that’s a pricey transaction.
Then comes fitting in a Hellebuyck extension, which is the real issue. With Meier likely heading for a payday on an eight-year contract in the coming weeks, Hellebuyck for $9 to $9.5 million per year becomes problematic. With Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Hellebuyck, the Devils would have five players making north of $7 million and two at $9 million in Hellebuyck and Hamilton. Meier could even reach that number, though I think the Devils could keep his cap hit below $9 million.
Maybe that won’t be a problem with a salary cap ceiling that’s expected to rise significantly over the next couple of years. But there’s a more noteworthy issue: Hellebuyck will be 31 when an extension kicks in. He’s a great goalie and is still playing at an elite level, but if it’s a max-term contract, how long will he be a top-five netminder in the NHL? Four years, if that?
The Devils have had issues with paying goaltenders after they hit the wrong side of 30. Cory Schneider was at the top of his game when they re-signed him to a seven-year deal in 2014, but injuries played a significant role in his decline just two years into that contract. It’s a similar situation with Bernier, who hasn’t played since Dec. 2021 after hip surgery. That’s not to say that’ll happen with Hellebuyck, but he has a lot of mileage on him. It’s a risk the Devils or any team take in signing him to that kind of money at 31 years old and for max term or close to it.
Hellebuyck Will Have to Come Way Down From His Ask
Just because Hellebuyck is looking for Vasilevskiy money doesn’t mean he’ll get it. Though Sergei Bobrovsky was fantastic for the Florida Panthers in their run to the Stanley Cup Final, teams seem to have gotten smarter in paying goalies since he signed a seven-year deal in 2019 at a $10 million cap hit. While he’s been a league-average to slightly above-average goaltender since signing, he hasn’t lived up to that $10 million number.
Related: Devils 2023 Free Agent Targets: Goaltenders
Sure, there’s an argument for paying Hellebuyck close to Vasilevskiy money since he’s still playing like a Vezina-caliber goaltender. But Vasilevskiy was 25 when he signed his current contract and will be 33 when it expires. That’s a significant difference that the Devils can’t ignore.
So what would it take for the Devils to get more involved in talks? Hellebuyck will likely have to be willing to sign for around $8 million annually and probably even less. Even then, I think the Devils would still give pause to the idea of signing him to term, even if it’s for five years, at that kind of cap hit.
If Hellebuyck is open to a shorter-term deal (3-4 years), New Jersey can probably get behind that. There’s no way it’ll be at Vasilevskiy-type money, either. It’d still have to be closer to $8 million annually or even below that number. But given he’s 31 and it could be his last chance at a big-time payday, he’ll likely want max term or close to it.
The path to a Hellebuyck and Devils marriage seems like a long shot right now. The Devils have a solid 1A in Vanecek and a promising young netminder in Schmid, who should have an expanded role in 2023-24. If the Devils don’t feel comfortable with either of them, there are other options; it’d make sense to look for depth since Nico Daws will be out until December after offseason hip surgery.
Add in the possible future cap implications and the risk of signing him at his age, and there are some serious red flags to consider. Could Hellebuyck end up a Devil? For sure, but at his current price, the best path seems to stick with what the Devils have now or find someone else in a quality free-agent class and run a similar three-man rotation they had with Vanecek, Blackwood and Schmid in 2022-23.
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Advanced stats from Money Puck
