With a loss on Sunday (March 17) to the St. Louis Blues, the Anaheim Ducks have mathematically been eliminated from playoff contention. This should come as no surprise, as the rebuilding Ducks (23-42-3) have missed the postseason in each of the last five seasons, and despite a very fun start in October, there wasn’t enough improvement to the roster to suggest they would be competitive in any way.
Related: Ducks Showing No Signs of Life During Latest Losing Streak
The Ducks are in a no man’s land in the NHL standings — they’re firmly in 30th place, seven points ahead of a Chicago Blackhawks team that has no motivation to make up ground and eight points back of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who, in turn, Anaheim has no motivation to pass up.
While this does feel like yet another lost season, Anaheim still has plenty to play for the rest of the 2023-24 season. Their recent losing streak has brought in last season’s defensive woes and should be addressed immediately. Additionally, injuries to the top of the lineup are beginning to let up and could allow the team to finally run at full strength.
Shore Up Defensive Regression
While their point total and place in the standings are eerily similar to last year’s nightmare season, there have been a few positive developments that have allowed this season to feel like a step forward. One of the biggest improvements has been on the defensive side. The arrivals of rookies Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe, and, more recently, Olen Zellweger have re-energized a dismal position group, but there is still improvement to make. The Ducks have given up the second-most goals in the NHL this season, but it’s a far cry from the 4.09 goals per game they surrendered last season.
Anaheim would need to give up north of six goals per game to reach last year’s level of futility, but their recent play has become reminiscent of the final days of the Dallas Eakins era. The Ducks have lost six straight games and have been outscored 31-7 in that span. If this pace continues, they’ll surrender 317 goals, which was only matched by Anaheim (335) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (329) a season ago. For reference, the San Jose Sharks are on pace to allow 322 goals this season. The Sharks have had two losing streaks reach 10 games and only narrowly missed a third.
Part of the issue is that the Ducks have been horribly undisciplined this season. They serve a league-high 14.2 penalty minutes per game and are surrendering a power-play goal on roughly 27 percent of their opponents’ chances. In their current six-game losing streak, they’ve been outscored on the power play 14-2. Regardless of how good or bad the Ducks could be at five-on-five, allowing two power-play goals per game has buried them in these contests and has made them uncompetitive.
Get Healthy
The Ducks were never meant to be great this season, but injuries across the top of the lineup stunted a lot of potential progress. The conversation starts with Trevor Zegras, who has had two separate injuries force him out of the lineup for 48 games. He’s still out of the lineup with a broken ankle suffered in early January, which came only eight games after a 20-game absence because of another lower-body injury. It’s a lost season in the development for the 22-year-old Zegras, who only recorded seven points in 20 games. He’s been back on the ice, and a return seems imminent, so hopefully he can have a healthy and productive stretch run in an otherwise challenging season.
Even with a development plan in place, a tough NHL schedule has also forced Leo Carlsson out of the lineup for an extended time. The second overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft suffered a sprained MCL in late December that held him out of the lineup for nine games. He missed another eight games with a concussion in late February as well. In total, Carlsson has appeared in 41 out of 68 games so far this season. He returned to the lineup on Sunday (March 17) and recorded an assist.
Anaheim’s injuries were well spread out beyond Zegras and Carlsson. Mason McTavish has missed 12 games. Isac Lundestrom made his season debut in January after missing the first 36 games. Alex Killorn and Max Jones have both missed 19 games. In fact, Anaheim only has eight skaters who have reached 60 games played this year, and two of those players are now on the Edmonton Oilers.
Meet Cutter Gauthier
The Ducks had a busy trade deadline, but the most significant deal of the season came back in January when Anaheim acquired forward prospect Cutter Gauthier from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Jamie Drysdale. While losing a young defenseman with a high ceiling like Drysdale is tough, Gauthier fills a more pressing need for the Ducks. They’ve ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring rates for the last few years, and goal-scoring wingers have been in short supply. A natural center who will likely move to the wing in the NHL, Gauthier leads the NCAA with 32 goals in 34 games for Boston College this season. He’s Anaheim’s top prospect according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (from “Anaheim Ducks are No. 5 in 2024 NHL Prospect Pool Rankings,” The Athletic, Feb. 26, 2024).
Gauthier is more than ready for the NHL, but the Ducks will have to be patient. NCAA athletes aren’t able to sign with pro clubs until their collegiate team’s season ends. Boston College is the number-one ranked school and is a borderline shoo-in to make a deep tournament run, which runs adjacent to the final games of the NHL season. If BC is upset in regional play, Gauthier could feasibly sign his ELC and be on Anaheim’s roster for all seven games in April. But if they reach the Frozen Four, their season won’t end until April 11 or 13. The Ducks’ final three games of the season are April 12, 13, and 18, so Gauthier should at least be in the lineup for the season finale against the Vegas Golden Knights.
Run a Top-Loaded Power Play Group
One disappointing aspect of Anaheim’s season has been the power play. They convert at an 18.97 percent rate, which is good enough for 21st in the league. While that’s better than one would expect out of a team at the bottom of the standings, there’s enough top-end talent on the roster to improve on that number. Part of it is the injuries, but there’s also blame on head coach Greg Cronin’s deployment. Few would argue the best four-forward, one defenseman power-play group the Ducks can draw up would be Zegras, Carlsson, McTavish, Troy Terry, and Mintyukov. That group has shared the ice for a combined three seconds on the power play, so enough time for one of these players to have skated to the bench.
I would love to see a laughably top-loaded power play instead of spreading the scoring talent between two groups. Maybe it requires Gauthier, but the previously mentioned group of five would be a significant improvement over hopelessly trotting out Cam Fowler and having him send point shots toward a screening Jakob Silfverberg.
More to Play for Next Season
While the Ducks were never meant to be any good this season, it felt as though they were meant to take a step forward in some kind of way. While there have been some improvements on the defensive side of the puck, injuries have piled on and have made the final product resemble much of last season’s abysmal record. When they’re healthy, they have a solid core to work around, and a high-end pick in the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft will add another piece to a stacked prospect cupboard.
Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference and Natural Stat Trick.
