For months, the consensus around Easton Cowan was firm: he’d need some seasoning with the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ American Hockey League (AHL) Toronto Marlies before he’d be ready for the NHL. Even inside the Maple Leafs’ own walls, it took time—maybe longer than it should have—for everyone to agree to give the kid a real look. But once he finally stepped onto NHL ice, the picture changed in a hurry.
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No, he isn’t filling the net every night. But he’s creating real chances. Yesterday, I wrote about his high-danger chances and goals above expected, and those numbers backed up what your eyes already told you: Cowan drives play. He scored again last night to tie the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets late. If you are like me, you have to admit that the thought “here goes another one” crossed your mind.
Is There Any Chance Cowan Moves to the Marlies Again?
More importantly, he looks like he belongs. Head coach Craig Berube keeps trusting him in more challenging and more offensive situations, and Cowan keeps rewarding that trust. At this point, you have to ask: Is there any chance he leaves the lineup now? Every shift looks a little more confident. Every play feels a little more intentional.
Cowan isn’t loud about his abilities, and he’s not chasing headlines. He’s just starting to stack up the kind of games that make any consideration of his going anywhere else gratuitous. If you didn’t know his age, you’d swear he’s a veteran who’s been through a few playoff runs.
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What keeps surprising me is how smoothly his game scales upward. He doesn’t look overwhelmed. He doesn’t get dragged into the mushy middle the way so many young players do. He plays — and the underlying numbers keep backing up what the eye test has been whispering for weeks now: He is already helping the Maple Leafs win hockey games.
A High-Danger Player in a Low-Danger League
Let’s start with the stat that actually matters: high-danger scoring chances. Forget shot volume, forget attempts from the wall. Goals are conceived from high-danger chances. This is where a skater creates that one clean look that can break a game open.
Here’s what shocked me when I saw the numbers. Cowan ranks second on the team in high-danger chances at even strength. Only John Tavares, a player who’s made a career of living inside the hashmarks, is generating more dangerous looks.
If you shift from numbers to percentages, which smooths out ice-time differences, Cowan jumps to number one. He’s on the high side of almost 65% of the high-danger chances when he’s on the ice. That’s not luck. That’s not “being in the right place at the right time.” That’s structure, instincts, and constant pressure on defenders.
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None of this feels accidental. He’s always arriving a half-second earlier than the defender expects. He wins battles he shouldn’t win. And he has this sneaky ability to slip into seams before anyone notices he’s there.
Expected Goals: The Quiet Truth-Teller
His expected goals further strip away the noise. It tells you what should have happened, based on the quality of chances created and allowed. Cowan sits third among all forwards in even-strength expected goals differential. That’s not a cherry-picked stat. That’s top-line impact from a 20-year-old who wasn’t supposed to be anywhere near this conversation yet.
He’s also quietly posting the best expected-goals percentage on the power play of any forward. He’s not out there as much as the big guns, but he’s making good use of the time he gets. Good players touch the puck. Better players tilt the ice. Cowan tilts the ice.
The Eye Test Still Matters — And It Matches the Numbers
This is where the eye test and analytics overlap: numbers can show us where to look, but they can’t tell us how a player carries himself. Cowan has the same quality I remember in other young players who later became leaders — that blend of calm feet and restless mind.
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He’s always working. He’s never drifting. When he makes a mistake, he doesn’t double down on it the next shift. That’s rare in a young player, especially in Toronto, especially under these lights.
Is Cowan’s “Leadership” Too Much of a Stretch Right Now?
It would seem the Maple Leafs have been hesitant to place significant responsibilities on their youngsters. That’s unfair, and it’s usually wrong. But Cowan’s game has the early hint that other players play better with him on their line. He drives pace. He pushes the game into areas where his teammates get better looks. He never cheats for offence. Coaches love that. Teammates trust that. And trust is currency in an NHL room.
So How Good Is He, Really?
Cowan is good enough that the numbers and the eye test have finally shaken hands. He’s good enough that he’s already pushing veterans up the lineup. Finally, he’s good enough that if you didn’t know his age, you’d assume he was 24, not a kid still finding his adult voice. Cowan isn’t just holding his own — he’s lifting the team. If this is his baseline after only 15 NHL games, the next few years could get interesting.
