Every year, fantasy hockey enthusiasts eagerly await ESPN’s point projections, and every year, there are projections that leave fans scratching their heads. In the lead-up to the upcoming 2023-24 NHL season, EPSN raised eyebrows on a number of projections, perhaps none more than Brad Marchand’s estimated 46 points. However, it’s not just Marchand that has sparked debates; the Edmonton Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is another player whose projection has ignited conversation and debate.
Bouchard recently inked a two-year contract extension with the Oilers, valued at $3.9 million per season. While this bridge deal promises to be a steal for the Oilers in the short term, it has the potential to complicate future negotiations with the young defenseman. Why? Every projection outside of ESPN’s estimates assumes he will achieve extraordinary offensive numbers as the quarterback of the NHL’s most potent power play.
ESPN Got Some Things Right
In fairness, it’s likely ESPN went off of similar stats from previous years to come up with their numbers. For example, they assume around a 5-5.5% shooting percentage is reasonable. If you look at his previous seasons, one could make an argument that’s fair. So too, their point totals aren’t incredibly low. They see Bouchard upping his numbers from last season and finishing the regular season with 48 points. Unlike some of their other projections, they didn’t lower his totals, which is accurate if he stays healthy.
Bouchard will see increased totals in both goals and assists and they correctly assume he’ll up his average ice time per game. They kept his plus/minus fairly consistent and they figured he’d play all 82 games.
ESPN Is Discounting How Potent That Power Play Is
My biggest issue with the projection is that it discounts both Bouchard’s motivation to secure a lucrative third contract and how absolutely deadly the power play in Edmonton is. Will Edmonton break another NHL record? Maybe not. Will it be the most dangerous power play in the NHL again? Probably.
Related: 3 Predictions for Oilers’ Evander Kane in 2023-24
After signing a team-friendly bridge contract, this upcoming season presents him with a golden opportunity. ESPN’s prediction of a mere 11 goals and 37 assists for Bouchard and that includes the network’s forecast of only a four-point increase in power-play production.
To understand why these projections are met with skepticism, we need to rewind to the previous season. In 2022-23, Bouchard didn’t fully assume power-play duties until Tyson Barrie was traded. The Oilers traded Barrie to Nashville and acquired Mattias Ekholm in a bid to bolster their blue line with a more defensively-minded veteran. This move paved the way for Bouchard to take the reins on the first-unit power play, and he excelled beyond expectations, further elevating the league’s already best-in-class power play.
In essence, Bouchard’s 2022-23 late-season and playoff performance was remarkable and his production surged once he was entrusted with a key role on the power play. The Oilers’ decision to elevate him to that role for the entirety of the 2023-24 season should logically result in a substantial increase in his offensive output. Four points isn’t anywhere close to enough.
This Is One Instance Where A Small Sample Size Matters
While projections are based on historical data and statistical analysis, they can’t always account for the human element and the impact of changing circumstances. Bouchard’s trajectory, particularly in the latter part of the previous season, underscores the notion that he can take the ball and run with it when given the opportunity. As the prospective quarterback of the NHL’s most potent power play, his potential to exceed the projected numbers is evident.
So too, if you look at his production in the playoffs, his shooting percentage jumped from just over 5% to 13.79%. He won’t likely maintain that pace, but it’s clear he’s due for an increase. Even a modest jump to 17 goals puts him around 8.3% if ESPN’s 203 total shots estimate is anywhere near accurate. He should easily get another 5 goals on the man advantage alone.
ESPN’s fantasy point projections — it can be debated about how informative and insightful they actually are — should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to players like Bouchard. The young defenseman’s potential, coupled with his increased responsibilities and the team’s reliance on him, suggests that he is poised for a breakout season that could defy even the most conservative projections. Fantasy hockey managers take note – Bouchard might just be the sleeper pick that exceeds all expectations in the 2023-24 NHL season.
