The Calgary Flames have gone silent as Craig Conroy and the rest of the group awaits Elias Lindholm’s decision on whether he wants to re-sign long-term or move on. This has held up the process with all of the other 2024 unrestricted free agents (UFA), including Noah Hanifin. With Erik Karlsson now on a new team and focus off of him, this opens up an opportunity for the Flames that might dissipate if they don’t act.
Regardless of Lindholm’s decision, it doesn’t seem likely Hanifin wants to stick around in Calgary. On Sportsnet 960 The Fan, Julian McKenzie recently said, “it’s out there that Noah Hanifin wants to play in the United States. I think this would be the ideal time, these next few weeks, you start re-engaging some teams who were in on the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes.” Not only do the Flames have a gauge on who missed out on Karlsson and is looking for a defensive upgrade, they now own the best defenceman available. Whoever was trying to acquire Karlsson was attempting to upgrade their defence before the season started. I don’t think that will change over a few days.
Hanifin is young and is going into his final year, meaning he could either be a strong rental or re-up with a new team, is a top pairing defenceman, and is gifted at both ends of the ice. The Flames won’t just be looking to get back future assets though. A trade will likely have to involve a defender coming back. If not, then the future asset could very well be used right away to help the Flames this season. Conroy looks to be trying to change the team in a positive way by keeping who wants to stay in town around and shifting gears on whoever doesn’t. It’s no time to hesitate and let Hanifin’s contract run out without getting something good back in return.
Karlsson’s Value Compared to Hanifin
Karlsson, despite scoring over 100 points on the fourth-worst team in the NHL last season, has his problems defensively. Not only should he solely be considered an offensive defenceman and would need a solid defensively-minded partner to hold the pairing together, but he’s also getting up there in age and is 33 years old. Age didn’t stop his production though, because when he’s healthy, he has been an offensive force throughout his career.
Despite his holes defensively, Karlsson is very fast and will provide scoring. A team can never have enough of that. Health is definitely a concern, especially at his age and the fact that he struggled to stay in the lineup throughout his tenure in San Jose. With $1.5 million annual average value (AAV) retained, the Pittsburgh Penguins committed to four years at $10 million AAV, taking him to age 37. Hanifin is a wildly different story.
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Hanifin’s contract ends next summer, which could be good or bad for any potential suitors. Teams in on Karlsson might be looking for more offence and have the defensive side of the game covered. While Hanifin can provide decent offence, it’s nowhere close to the calibre of Karlsson, hence the much cheaper contract because offence typically gets paid more than defence. Hanifin has a cap hit of $4.95 million AAV and has eight years of NHL experience at age 26. He logged over 22:30 of ice time per game last season on a Flames’ defensive unit that had many good players. While he scored 10 goals and 48 points in 2021-22, that dropped a bit to seven goals and 38 points last season partly because of the drop-off in scoring from the forwards.
Hanifin, even without any cap retained (which I think Calgary would be against), would be half of the cap hit of Karlsson. The Penguins were able to offload Mikael Granlund ($5 million AAV), Jeff Petry ($4.687 million AAV – 25 percent retained), Casey DeSmith ($1.8 million AAV), and Jan Rutta ($2.75 million AAV), get Karlsson and a third-round pick and give up just a top-10 protected first-round pick in 2024 and a 2025 second-round pick. The Flames don’t need to dump contracts when trading Hanifin or any others. All of their potential trade pieces over the next year have value.
The Flames have two options to move Hanifin, make a trade without a deal in place with the receiving team, so he’s seemingly a rental, and they don’t maximize value, or execute a sign-and-trade and maximize value. Notable recent sign-and-trade packages for Matthew Tkachuk and Pierre-Luc Dubois were very nice and something the Flames need to strive for. The starting point in either trade format is a first-round pick. They failed to get one in return for Tyler Toffoli, only getting Yegor Sharangovich and a third-round pick.
Hanifin might be the most valuable trade piece they have if Lindholm decides to re-sign, or they can’t settle on a sign-and-trade for him. The Flames can’t mess this one up, or it will set them back further than they want to be. They have some catching up to do in the Pacific Division, and a strong trade return will go a long way.
