The Calgary Flames have surprised many with their start to the 2024-25 NHL season. While the majority of analysts and fans had them pegged as a basement team, they began the campaign on a 5-0-1 run and have a current record of 12-7-4. This has them sitting in fourth place in the NHL’s Western Conference and second in the Pacific Division at the time of writing. Perhaps the most interesting development has been the rapid advancement made by rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf. Coming into the season, the 23-year-old had an 8-7-1 record, a 3.03 goals-against average (GAA), and a .897 save percentage (SV%) in 18 NHL appearances. Plenty of people in the hockey world were skeptical when the franchise traded former starter Jacob Markstrom and thus announced to all that Wolf and career backup Dan Vladar would be their goaltending tandem moving forward.
However, the youngster has not only proved that he belongs in the NHL, but that he can potentially thrive. At this point, he has a record of 8-3-1, a GAA of 2.47, and a SV% of .921. The native of Gilroy, California also bagged his first career shutout with a 2-0 win against the Nashville Predators on Nov. 15.
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He has seemingly beat out the more experienced Vladar for the starting role and given the Flames faithful a ton of hope for the future. As far as the league’s first-year players go, Wolf is definitely proving to be among the best, and is starting to generate some Calder Memorial Trophy buzz (awarded annually to the NHL’s best rookie). His outstanding body of work so far as well as his odds of winning the prestigious award deserve some further analysis.
A Closer Look at the Stats
When looking at the aforementioned stats, it’s easy to just say Wolf is playing well. But exactly how well can only be determined via a deeper dive and by utilizing the tool of comparison. Among all NHL netminders, he is tied for 12th place in wins, his GAA ranks a very modest 15th, and his SV% has him at an impressive seventh league-wide. For comparison’s sake, he ranks ahead of such names as Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jeremy Swayman, and Markstrom, respectively, in both GAA and SV%. According to the stats website Money Puck, Wolf is the 11th best goaltender in terms of goals saved above expected rating and wins above replacement. No other rookie netminder in the NHL is even remotely close to Wolf’s numbers.
As a team, the Flames are 26th (yikes) in the NHL in goals for but have allowed the eight-lowest goal total. To their credit, Wolf’s teammates block 23% of shot attempts against, but this figure is still 19th among NHL goalies. Despite allowing an elevated number of high-danger scoring chances, opposing teams only convert on these chances 8.6% of the time, which is right around the league average. This is all in huge part to Wolf, who stops unblocked high-danger shot attempts at an 80% clip. Seven of the 30 goals he has allowed have come when the Flames have been shorthanded, to boot. At 5-on-5, the youngster has let in just 15 goals so far. Whenever he has been in net, the Flames earn at least one point 75% of the time. Essentially, he has been better than some of the league’s biggest names and concurrently a huge part of his team’s success.
Other Rookies & Wolf’s Chances
As per usual, the NHL features a handful of immensely talented first-year players in 2024-25. The Philadelphia Flyers’ Matvei Michkov, the Dallas Stars’ Logan Stankoven, and the Montreal Canadiens’ Lane Hutson are among the cream of the crop, pacing all rookie players in most statistical categories. Michkov leads the entire pack in points with 17 in 21 games and Stankoven is just behind him with 15 in 21 contests. Hutson leads all rookie defencemen with 12 points in 22 games whilst also playing the most ice time of all rookies with an average of 23:12 per night. As previously mentioned, no rookie goaltenders are really a part of the conversation. Only the Flyers’ Ivan Fedotov and Joel Blomqvist of the Pittsburgh Penguins even qualify and neither man’s stats are great; they both have just three wins and GAAs of over 3.60.
Unfortunately, Wolf’s odds of winning the Calder aren’t in his favour. The goaltender position is immensely difficult to grasp at the NHL level, and thus new ones seemingly don’t succeed right away. Voters also don’t tend to sway in the direction of netminders. They essentially must play out of their minds to secure the award. Since the turn of the century, only three goalies have won the Calder: Evgeni Nabokov (2000-01), Andrew Raycroft (2003-04), and Steve Mason (2008-09). Currently, Wolf is on pace for roughly 28 wins, and for argument’s sake let’s assume he maintains his other statistics. Both Mason and Nabokov had over 30 wins and all three men had GAAs of under 2.30. Though he should garner many votes and though it may seem impossible to do so, Wolf may need to step it up another notch to win the Calder.
Ultimately, Wolf should be quite proud of his play so far just as Flames fans have been. However, his job is not finished. Of course, the team’s success is of the utmost importance and carrying the Flames to the playoffs could help boost his chances of winning the Calder. History isn’t in his favour, and the NHL’s other top rookies aren’t likely to get worse as the season goes on. If Wolf can maintain or increase his output, he could be the first Flame to win it since Sergei Makarov in 1990 and the first goalie to do so in franchise history.
