If you look at CapFriendly (while you still can), you’ll see the Philadelphia Flyers have three unrestricted free agents (UFAs) on their NHL roster this offseason. Two of them — Marc Staal and Denis Gurianov — are expected to hit the open market. It makes sense to let both walk. Gurianov only played in four forgettable games after the Flyers acquired him from the Nashville Predators. He played more games in the American Hockey League (27) than in the NHL between the two teams (18). Staal was a fairly effective No. 6 or No. 7 defender this season, but there’s no need to lock up a 37-year-old who only played 35 games due to injury and being a healthy scratch.
However, the other UFA is generating more buzz. The Flyers acquired Erik Johnson at the trade deadline from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for Philadelphia’s fourth-round pick this year. The 36-year-old was acquired to fill part of the void left by trading Sean Walker to the Colorado Avalanche days before the Johnson deal. While it’s possible he may retire after a 987-game career that included a Stanley Cup win with the Avalanche in 2022, the Flyers are reportedly interested in re-signing him. As recently as Monday, The Athletic‘s Kevin Kurz wrote, “The Flyers seem to be leaning toward bringing the veteran defenseman back” (from ‘As Flyers decide on their core, who will and won’t be a part of the future?,’ The Athletic, June 10, 2024).
How Did Johnson Fare in Philly?
On some level, it does make sense. Flyers general manager Daniel Brière is very familiar with Johnson — the two were teammates during the 2014-15 season in Colorado, Brière’s last in the NHL. He does bring a lot of experience to the table, knowing how to handle everything from a Cup run to the pressure of being picked first overall (which he was in 2006 by the St. Louis Blues).
And in a 17-game stint with the Flyers this season, Johnson was fairly effective. He put up a 54.64% expected goals share, the fourth highest among Flyers blueliners from his team debut on March 9 through the end of the season, and within 0.5% of second place. The Flyers were outscored 16-7 with Johnson on the ice at 5-on-5. But that can at least partially be blamed on Philadelphia’s porous goaltending hurting Johnson more than most, as the Flyers had a .843 save percentage with him on the ice.
Johnson has never been an offensive dynamo, and while he only scored three points, one of them was a huge game-tying goal in the Flyers’ season-finale, when they were battling for a playoff spot with the Washington Capitals.
The Problem: Roster Fit
Right now, the Flyers have a bit of a log jam on their backend. It’s not a crazy one, but they don’t seem to have a spot for Johnson, both on the right side and in terms of overall numbers.
Travis Sanheim, Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Nick Seeler enter next season as lineup locks. A Ristolainen trade could open up a spot, but given his pricey $5.1 million cap hit and the fact he only played 31 games this season due to two injuries, that seems unlikely.
The Flyers could carry up to three other defenders (though most teams won’t go above seven). However, they already have candidates for those spots as well. Egor Zamula played 66 games for the team last season, and while he was inconsistent, the 24-year-old did enough to earn another look. Unless negotiations go south (he’s a restricted free agent), Zamula is likely to be back.
The other spots potentially belong to Adam Ginning and/or Ronnie Attard. The two were fairly high picks by the Flyers (Ginning No. 50 in 2018, Attard No. 72 in 2019). Both played well in brief NHL stints late this season, playing eight and 11 games respectively. Neither is waivers exempt next season, so the Flyers must keep them on the NHL roster or risk losing them. Additionally, Ginning could depart for Sweden and return to the Swedish Hockey League if he feels an NHL opportunity isn’t likely to develop.
While neither is expected to be game-breakers, they could become regular NHLers. Losing that opportunity by signing the much older, at best equally effective Johnson doesn’t seem wise. And that’s assuming he doesn’t regress further next season. From the start of last season through the time of his trade, only one Sabre with at least 10 games played had a worse xG% in Buffalo than Johnson. He also failed to record an assist with the Sabres in 50 games (though he did score three goals). Only one player with more games played than him finished the season with one assist or less (he eventually got a helper in Philly).
No Need to Rush
Odds are that teams won’t be jumping out of their shoes to sign an aging defender whose overall numbers this season were unspectacular. So it’s likely that if the Flyers are interested in Johnson, they don’t need to commit to him immediately, or necessarily for all of next season. Bringing him back on a professional tryout would make perfect sense, allowing him to impart wisdom on the young players in training camp and giving the Flyers an edge to sign him if injuries occur or a trade pops up that ships out another blueliner.
Related: How Travis Sanheim Can Live Out His Contract for the Flyers
However, in his current form and the Flyers’ current construction, a formal contract doesn’t fit. The Flyers need to get younger, and it seems likely bringing back Johnson could box out one of their bubble players, or prevent a prospect like Emil Andrae from cracking the team if they deliver a dynamite camp or dominate early in the AHL. The possibilities are endless for the Flyers right now, and that’s exactly why they don’t need to box themselves in by committing to Johnson.
Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick
