It’s a common refrain in St. Louis these days: Doug Armstrong needs to fix the St. Louis Blues defense. There’s no question that the Blues’ defense is a disaster and that the problems are largely of Armstrong’s own making. So fans are understandably desperate for answers.
And one name that has drawn a lot of attention is Noah Hanifin, especially with the recent news that he won’t sign an extension with the Calgary Flames, and will likely be traded. Fans believe Hanifin would be a great addition to the Blues, and they aren’t wrong. But they need to be cautious about how big they expect his impact to be.
Hanifin Would Be a Good Addition
There is no doubt that Hanifin would be a good addition, capable of being the first-line left-handed defenseman the Blues clearly need and haven’t had since Jay Bouwmeester’s retirement. He played 81 games for the Flames this season and managed 38 points, which would have ranked second amongst Blues defensemen. He also logged 22:39 in average time on ice (ATOI), which would have ranked him closely behind Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk. Plus, Hanifin is 26, which sits precisely in the middle of the age range Armstrong hopes to target in his retool.
A closer look at Hanifin’s metrics suggests a slightly above-average defenseman. Over the last three seasons, he’s allowed 2.34 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) , good for 158th amongst players who have logged more than 1,000 minutes since that time. That’s in the top half, but nothing special. His high danger chances against per 60 (HDCA/60) ranks 99th. Where he truly shines is on the power play, where his metrics are all stellar, including his 101.48 Corsi for per 60 (CF/60). But that is where the Blues need the least help on defense. Even so, Hanifin is an all-around solid fit for the Blues. He just doesn’t solve all their problems.
Blues Cannot Afford a Hanifin Extension
The Blues’ biggest problem is their salary cap situation. They spend the third most of any NHL team on defense. But the two teams ahead of them are the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Boston Bruins and the Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights. Furthermore, the Blues have four players with cap hits at or above $4 million per season, whose deals extend at least three seasons from today. And yet, they missed the playoffs badly last season with one of the worst defensive performances in the league. It is not exaggerating to say that their defensive situation is catastrophic.
Related: The Blues Must Fix Their Defense This Summer
The Blues have a serious rebuilding project on their hands. And while they could likely afford Hanifin next season — he is owed $4.95 million — but he is in the final year of his contract. Projections suggest that Hanifin would need an extension at least in the neighborhood of the Blues’ other top defensemen — Faulk, Parayko, and Torey Krug — who make $6.5 million a season and signed max-term extensions (which in the case of a sign-and-trade for Hanifin would be eight years). At that number, he is already too expensive for the Blues to add, unless they move out a similar contract to make room. And that’s assuming that during a thin free agent class, with the cap expected to expand quickly in the near future, Hanifin couldn’t fetch considerably more. An eight-year, $64 million contract might be warranted and would be far outside the Blues budget.
Blues Need Subtraction Before Addition
As unpleasant as it might be for Blues fans, they need to subtract on the blueline before they can add back to it. Like any great home remodeling show, they need a “demo” day to tear out the guts of the old house before they can begin to put in new cabinets. That will be hard work, but nothing Parayko hasn’t accomplished before. Still, the Blues need to be smart. Hanifin is a good player, and he’s available, but he is not good enough for the Blues to think he solves all their problem. And unless the cap situation makes sense, they need to stay away for the time being.
