The Toronto Maple Leafs have stated a few times this offseason that they want to re-sign all their core four players. This is good news for some Leaf fans who want to see if they can keep moving further in the playoffs until they finally win the Stanley Cup. Over the next couple of seasons, with the players’ escrow getting paid off, it is estimated that the salary cap could rise by approximately $4 million. If this is the case, it will give the Maple Leafs more room to sign free agents, including their top four players whose contracts end after the next two seasons. The catch is that if they sign all four of their top players, even with the cap rising, they may still be in the same predicament they are in now.
Leafs Cap Issues Result in Playoff Disappointment
Every season, the Maple Leafs have one of the best teams in the league, but it’s the same old story: They fail to go anywhere when it counts in the playoffs. The usual reasons are that the team doesn’t have enough grit or the goaltending and defence are not good enough. The biggest issue with any of that is the Maple Leafs don’t have the cap space to improve the defence or the goaltending. As for grit, they don’t have the freedom to get a player with grit to play in the top six; instead, they get players with grit to play in the bottom six, which is suitable for the regular season but not so much for playoffs. Former general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas tried to fill the holes the best he could, but with little money came limited talent.
Due to the high contracts of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander, it was difficult for Dubas to spend money on more high-end talent. This is what hurt Toronto in the playoffs, not the lack of superior goaltending or the lack of a solid defensive corps. Dubas did acquire grit, but not the type that can play top-six minutes during the playoffs. Depth was an issue as well. The team didn’t have the skilled players in the bottom six that could move to the top six when needed, and this is what has been keeping the Maple Leafs from moving on in the playoffs. If the team can find the cap space to sign higher-end talent with playoff grit, they could have the recipe to get to the Cup.
Leafs Have a Lot of Players to Sign
The Leafs have 12 players needing contracts this season, and none are top-line players. Seven forwards and three defencemen are unrestricted free agents (UFA) and two players are restricted free agents (RFA). With a projected cap space of just over $9 million for the 2023-24 season, there is little room to either re-sign their players or sign free agents. The Leafs have already hinted that they will not re-sign Micheal Bunting, Alexander Kerfoot and Justin Holl. Victor Mete is an RFA who is unlikely to return to Toronto. That leaves only eight players to potentially re-sign but still leaves space to be filled. To fill these spots, they will need to spend all, if not most, of the remaining cap. Using rookies could work, but as a contending team, they don’t want a lineup with too many inexperienced players.
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If the Maple Leafs continue to sign mid-range talent players to fill the bottom six, they will continue to fail in the playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights proved that depth is the key to winning this season when they won the Cup, and the Leafs haven’t been able to create the proper depth. As long as four big contracts take up the cap space, they cannot sign the appropriate depth to replicate what Vegas did this season. Eight spots must be filled with 15 of 23 players signed next season. Goalie Ilya Samsonov will likely be re-signed and given a slight raise, and prospects Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies can take two other spots. This leaves five spots for the Leafs to fill with their $9 million cap space, which is less than $2 million per player, not counting Samsonov’s salary, and that is not getting Toronto the depth it needs.
Maple Leafs Need to Make a Major Move
When you have the talent the Maple Leafs have, it’s hard to imagine one of the Core Four being moved, but when you fail year after year to reach your goals, a change is needed. Toronto can’t keep signing bottom players to short-term contracts and think they will get any further than the year before. They need to free up not just a little cap space but a lot, especially if those huge contracts are all up in the next two seasons. For the Leafs to bring back Marner, Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander, they must give each, except maybe Tavares, a raise. Even with the cap increase, the Maple Leafs will remain in the same situation due to increasing contracts, which means they will still need to sign small short-term contracts with players who they hope will have career seasons.
If the Leafs want to add the depth they need, they must let one of their top four players go. The best way to do this would be by trading one of them, and if management doesn’t get the terms of an extension from one of them to help the team, then it’s time to look elsewhere and trade the player for as many assets as possible. The Core Four have their contracts up over the next two seasons, and Toronto has most of their other contracts up over the next two seasons. They have only eight players signed through 2024-25; of course, they will sign at least one or two of the Core Four before then, but these next two seasons are pivotal.
The Maple Leafs have other options, like buying out Matt Murray or trading him and other players, but none of these moves will give them the cap relief that would come if they break up the Core Four. They also can’t let these players walk at the end of their contracts, so a trade is a must if new GM Brad Treliving feels they need to make a significant move, which is something he is not afraid to do.
