The Toronto Maple Leafs have new management but still have the same problems. They have not gone past the second round with their core four in five seasons and are coming to a point where all four of them will have to be re-signed or let go. The Leafs are consistently a heavy favourite to win the Stanley Cup each year because of this particular group of players, but time is quickly running out. Auston Matthews is one of the best Leafs goal scorers of all time, but at the end of next season, he’ll be a free agent (FA) who will want a monstrous new contract. If Toronto doesn’t make a huge move soon, they face the big risk of not getting their superstar center back and losing him for nothing. They have options, but one could be moving him sooner than later.
Leafs Will Need to Move One of the Core Four
The Leafs have been one of the best teams in the league since they drafted Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander and signed John Tavares as an FA. There is no denying these four players’ star power and overall talent; their success individually and as a team in the regular season has been tremendous. But for some reason, playoff success has not been the same. Much of that concerns the lack of depth, defense, and quality, consistent goaltending, which is more challenging for Toronto to build with their top four taking up most of the cap space. For years, former general manager (GM) Kyle Dubas has been trying to plug the holes with the best players he can find while staying within the salary cap rules with little to no success.
To get the most out of their cap situation, the Leafs will have to move one of their core four, especially within the next two seasons, even if the cap goes up by the rumoured $4 million in 2023-24. All four will be at the end of their contracts, and all four will be unrestricted free agents (UFA) able to sign anywhere they want for a much higher annual average value (AAV) than they have now.
Unless Toronto truly believes they have a Cup coming to them in the next two seasons or sooner, and it can only be done with these four on the team, then they must make a move. A deadline move wouldn’t work because the Leafs will probably be buyers and sellers, so an off-season move would be the way to get at least something for one of their players. If they don’t make a move, then the team will lose one, if not more, of these players and receive nothing in return.
Matthews Should Be the One to Get Traded
Matthews has been the face of the Leafs for the past seven seasons, and rightfully so. He is a five-time 40-goal scorer and broke the franchise’s single-season goal record with 60 in 2021-22. Matthews has been everything a Leafs fan could hope for: a solid two-way center, a goal scorer and a difference-maker. Even in the playoffs, when he is most criticized, he has produced 44 points in 50 games. He became the first Leafs player to win the Hart Trophy for the most valuable player (MVP) in 67 years, so why should he be the one they trade? The answer is simple: he is not dedicated to the Leafs. This may piss a few fans off, but let’s look at the facts. His first contract was only long enough to get him to FA status; he is not from Toronto; he says he wants to stay but is reluctant to work with management on a contract to help the team.
Related: Contract Snag Means a Matthews Trade Most Likely in Next 40 Days
With rumours running around that Matthews wants a short-term at the highest value, he is showing he will not sign any team-friendly deal. He also probably shouldn’t sign any team-friendly contract; with his talent and the knowledge that he can get pretty much any amount of money he wants anywhere in the league, Matthews has no reason to give anything to the Leafs.
From a team point of view, they can argue he is often injured because he has wrist problems and is inconsistent in the playoffs. Therefore, they could try to lowball him and see if they can get a contract that fits the cap but doesn’t cause an issue for them to sign much-needed top-six help to make the extra playoff push. Matthews’s side of the coin is he didn’t put them in the cap situation. He did his job, and the team didn’t build well enough around him. Both have compelling cases.
Matthews’s No Move Clause Puts Him in Driver’s Seat
The reason Matthews would need to be traded before July 1 is because of when the no-move clause of his contract kicks in, he has the final say on any trade the Leafs might want to make with him involved. He could nix any deal to any team and stay in Toronto. This might sound like a great thing to fans, but it puts the club in a precarious position when negotiating his next contract. If Matthews has complete control of his future, then the Leafs’ hands are tied, and they risk him walking away for nothing at the end of the season, especially if the Leafs do not progress farther in the playoffs than the second round. Dubas might have been on board to sign Matthews to whatever contract he wanted, but the new GM, Brad Treliving, may not have the same attitude toward Matthews.
The issue with moving any of the core four, especially in the off-season, is the Leafs can’t win any trade. No matter who they trade, whether it be Nylander or Matthews, they will not get the highest value for the player. If they don’t get an extension or cave in and give what the players want, they don’t win either. Toronto is in a lose/lose situation with anything they decide to do. With regard to Matthews, if he is the face of the franchise, then you need to do whatever it takes to keep him, but not at the sacrifice of improving the team.
Suppose Treliving or Brendan Shanahan don’t think they can get an extension signed before July 1. In that case, they must look at moving Matthews and getting the best value they can get before possibly losing him next offseason for nothing. It won’t be easy, and they can’t hope the cap goes up $5 million over the next two seasons; they have to act sooner than later. Matthews won’t do them any favours, so they have to do what’s best for the team, and it could be trading their best player.
