We’ve had a few bigger trades ahead of today’s 3 PM trade deadline, but none at the scope of the Jake Guentzel deal that got completed late last night. With the Pittsburgh Penguins essentially out of the playoff race, they sent Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for three prospects, two draft picks, and Michael Bunting. Here are the full details:
Credit to Emily, who said early yesterday that the Hurricanes seemed like the favorites for Guentzel. It may look like a lot to give up, but was it more of a quantity-over-quality approach? And how does that affect the return for the Penguins, who are in the unusual position of selling?
Hurricanes Address Most-Pressing Need
Let’s start with the buyers of this deal. The one thing the Hurricanes were lacking in their most recent playoff runs was a high-end scorer. Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov can put the puck in the net, but there wasn’t that game-breaking type of forward in their lineup to put them over the top.
Once Guentzel returns to the lineup from his injury, which could be as early as tomorrow against the New Jersey Devils, they will have that dynamic scoring threat on their roster. Before getting hurt, he had 22 goals and 52 points in 50 games — a 36-goal, 85-point pace over 82 games.
Even after missing the last few weeks, Guentzel was still the Penguins’ second-most efficient five-on-five scorer this season, averaging 2.49 points per 60 minutes. He’s a high-volume shooter, creates shots for himself and his teammates, is an excellent passer and can generate plenty of offense off the rush. The Hurricanes don’t play off the rush much, but he can add that different element to their lineup.
It does seem like the Hurricanes gave up quite a bit to acquire Guentzel, but they didn’t give up their top prospects. They kept Scott Morrow, Bradly Nadeau and Jackson Blake. There was no chance they were trading Alexander Nikishin for Guentzel, so he’s probably not worth mentioning.
We’ll get to what it means for the Penguins in a second, but for the Hurricanes, they made out quite well. They get the dynamic scorer they’ve needed for the last couple of seasons. It didn’t come with an extension, but I’m sure Guentzel will be open to re-signing with the Hurricanes, especially if they go deep in the playoffs.
Related: 2024 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker
The conditions on the picks were also curious. Assuming the Hurricanes don’t make it to the Cup Final, the Penguins will get the Philadelphia Flyers’ second-round pick, which the Hurricanes acquired in a separate deal. They addressed what has been their biggest need for the last couple of seasons and did so while keeping most of their best assets.
Hurricanes Grade: A-
Penguins’ Return Good But Far From Great
No Nadeau, Blake and Morrow may make this seem like an underwhelming return for the Penguins, especially for a player of Guentzel’s caliber. But I don’t think the Penguins did as poorly here as some made it out to be on social media.
The main draw from the prospects is Ville Koivunen, who’s having a fantastic season for Kärpät in the Finnish Liiga, with 55 points in 57 games. That’s outstanding production for a 20-year-old in the Liiga, which is a solid European league. Most prospect experts think he has top-nine potential, especially if his skating improves.
The one prospect I was a bit familiar with is Vasily Ponomarev, who I’ve seen play a couple of times at the World Junior Championships. He’s been producing in his two AHL seasons and, at 21 years old, may be the closest to NHL-ready from the prospects the Penguins received. I’m not sure what his upside is. Per his Elite Prospects profile from the 2020 draft, he has the makings of a hard-working, two-way forward, so perhaps he fills a bottom-six role.
Lastly, there’s Cruz Lucius, the youngest of the three prospects the Penguins received. The 19-year-old is a sophomore at the University of Wisconsin and has 31 points in 32 games this season. He has the longest way to go from the three prospects in this deal, but there’s upside based on his NCAA production.
And, of course, the Penguins received Bunting. The fit didn’t work with the Hurricanes, but he has a good resumé. Bunting is a hard forechecker, plays a physical game, and can produce 20-25 goals and 40-plus points when he’s on his game. He’s clearly not Guentzel, but he’s not a throw-in in this deal. He could be a legit contributor for the Penguins if he rebounds.
Could the Penguins have done better in this trade? Maybe, but it doesn’t seem like other teams were offering better. Otherwise, president of hockey ops and general manager Kyle Dubas would have done it. I think this return is decent for the Penguins. Koivunen has the most potential, and most scouting services considered the other two prospects among the Hurricanes’ top 10. If Bunting rebounds to the player he was with the Maple Leafs, that’s a plus, too.
Penguins Grade: B
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, microstats from Corey Sznajder (via JFresh)
