In what’s been quite a busy summer for the Carolina Hurricanes, one of the biggest storylines surrounding them throughout the offseason had been the future of star forward Marty Nečas. By all accounts a polarizing player within the fanbase, I don’t think any of the player’s truthers or doubters can deny his vaunted skill set. With a combination of blazing speed and high-end skill that is an extreme rarity in the sport, he’s a player that, many including myself would argue, still has a higher level to reach. Nečas himself even seems to agree with that.
In a recent interview for Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts, Nečas acknowledged that he has room for growth. “I didn’t have the best season [last year], wasn’t happy. But we turned the page, we figured out a way to stay,” he said. “I’ve got to be better. Be a player [that coach Rod Brind’Amour] can trust. I’m looking for a bigger role, I definitely want to play more, but obviously I’ve got to show it on the ice.”
Watching Nečas play, I’ve always felt that the biggest thing holding him back is his decision-making in key areas with the puck. Because of how fast he plays, it feels like sometimes he gets caught between two minds in terms of what he wants to do, and the end result is the wrong decision. Maybe it’s a confidence issue at times, or maybe it’s lack of chemistry with certain linemates. However, it’s evident how effective he is when things are clicking for him, as we saw with his team-leading 71 points in the 2022-23 season. That version of the player was lethal, and at age 25, there are still ways that the team can get him back to that level and even beyond.
Elevating Nečas at 5-on-5
A big factor in gaining the trust of a coaching staff, especially in a system like Brind’Amour’s, is bringing a positive impact at even strength. Interestingly enough, at 5v5 during the 2023-24 season, Nečas actually led all Canes forwards in ice time with an average of 15:07 per game, which alludes to the level of belief the team has in his game. Of course, he started over 60% of his shifts on the offensive side of the ice, which is not surprising considering the level of creativity he brings in an attacking sense; as evidenced below.
A deeper look into the advanced numbers doesn’t really bode well for him, though. His Corsi For percentage was at a very impressive 58% over 77 games, but it didn’t necessarily translate into results. At 5v5, the Hurricanes were outscored 52-46 with him on the ice, despite largely controlling the puck. His PDO (puck luck) was at a career-worst 97.6, so while you could argue that he was a victim of bad luck for the majority of last season, the eye test supported the regression. In fairness to him, none of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jack Drury and eventually the acquired Evgeny Kuznetsov emerged as a bona fide 2C option over the course of the season, which undoubtedly made life more difficult for Nečas as he was largely left carrying the load offensively on his line, and never got real consistency in terms of linemates.
Simply put, the Hurricanes need him to be more impactful at even strength. While you can’t really argue that he hasn’t been afforded favorable deployment, building chemistry with consistent linemates is beneficial for everybody involved. However, looking ahead to the upcoming season, they are still facing the same problem with the 2C role. While they’re useful players, I don’t think anybody can argue that Drury nor Kotkaniemi are an ideal 2C for a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations, and general manager Eric Tulsky has yet to address that position over the summer. They did sign Jack Roslovic, but he likely fits into the same category as the holdovers, and has had better success on the wing. Is there perhaps a route for Nečas to become the solution moving forward in that spot?
Potential Move to Center
Originally drafted as a centerman, Nečas has never really played the position over the course of his five full seasons in Raleigh. I understand the reservations that people may have about him as a center — he has a career faceoff percentage of just 41.5% (mind you, it’s on just 814 attempts), and his overall defensive game can leave….a lot to be desired. Although, credit to him, I thought his compete level on the defensive side of the game noticeably evolved last season, especially in the playoffs where he had his most effective postseason to date.
Now then, let’s get to the reasons why playing him as a center could make sense. First off, his elite speed flying through the middle of the ice, free to roam, makes him an even more dangerous threat than he already is. On the wing currently, I feel like he has a pretty long leash in terms of where he can carry the puck, but the added space and free reign he’d have playing in the middle could open up a lot of possibilities for him, and get him to areas he wouldn’t normally be in. He can also cover a ton of ground both up and down the ice in a short amount of time, which can be beneficial with the responsibility of needing to be the first man back on the backcheck.
Furthermore, the areas that seem to plague him (faceoffs and defensive responsibilities) are the same areas that Brind’Amour excelled at during his time as a player. I’m not sure you could find a better person to teach Nečas the tricks of the trade in the faceoff dot and how to be an effective 200-foot player. And really, the Hurricanes don’t need him to be a shut-down defensive guy, they just need him to be better, while staying the course as an offensive weapon with more freedom driving the play.
I’m also in the mindset of just…taking the training wheels off and really seeing what you have in this player. He’s never been given a real chance to play the natural position that he was drafted to play, and there’s virtually zero risk to give him a shot at it. With his new contract, you really have a two-year (or shorter) window to maximize his talent and convince him to stay long-term, or you move on. And I personally cannot justify letting a player of this caliber leave without flipping over every rock imaginable trying to find success for him. On his day, he’s one of the truly electric players in the league, and the team needs to get that level from him on a consistent basis.
Earning More Power Play Minutes
What’s really interesting to me was Nečas’ deployment on the power play last season. You’d think a player of his skill level would be an asset that’d you want on the ice as much as possible when you have an extra player out there, especially considering he’s virtually guaranteed to enter the zone with possession when he winds up carrying the puck. For some reason, he’s usually banished to the second unit, and had just 13 PP points in 77 games last season.
For the sake of a proper breakdown, I looked at the team’s deployment of forwards on the PP last season. Remarkably, Nečas was seventh among forwards that played 17-plus games (a benchmark used to reflect the introduction of Jake Guentzel in March). On average, he played over 40 seconds less per game (!) than even Michael Bunting, who of course had a different role on the unit, but does not come close in terms of creativity. In all honesty, it’s incomprehensible how anybody can justify such a demotion to a player who led your powerplay in both goals scored (nine), and points (26), just a year prior.
Moving forward, there’s no doubt in my mind that he should be on PP1, especially with Guentzel out of the mix. I chatted with the director of player personnel for the British Columbia Hockey League’s Coquitlam Express, Matthew Somma, about what he thinks Nečas needs to do to unlock his still unrealized potential in the NHL. He echoed a lot of my same sentiments:
“At this point, it’s two things. For one, the defensive game has to improve so Rod can trust him at center. The other, is establishing consistency. When Necas is on his game, he’s easily one of the more dominant players in the league. When he’s off his game, he’s invisible,” Somma said. “[In contrast] I wouldn’t call Sebastian Aho dominant, but he’s incredibly consistent. He’s a factor most nights, and even when he’s not contributing offensively, he’s doing the little things that Necas doesn’t do. If Necas truly hits his ceiling, I could see him outproducing Aho. It’s all about the consistency and earning Rod’s trust.”
With key contributors like Teuvo Teräväinen, Stefan Noesen and acquired help like Guentzel and Kuznetsov departing over the summer, the Hurricanes need to do whatever they can to elevate their scoring production internally. There is nobody on the roster with more to give than Nečas, whose drop from 71 points in 2022-23 to just 53 points last season was a deflating turn of events after such a promising breakout year. For a turnaround to work, it will take some compromise from both Nečas himself and the coaching staff, building and earning trust in one another on both sides of the puck. If common ground can be reached, the Hurricanes will undoubtedly have another star on their hands.
