The Carolina Hurricanes might not be done adding to the roster. After bringing in Dmitry Orlov, Michael Bunting, and Brendan Lemieux, general manager (GM) Don Waddell has another player on his radar. Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson is a big name on the market, and two teams are in the running for his services.
The two teams that are eyeing Karlsson are the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Metropolitan Division has gotten competitive so both are looking to bolster their rosters.
What Karlsson Brings to the Hurricanes
In his prime years, Karlsson may have been the most electrifying player in hockey. But for the past few seasons, it has looked like those years were behind him. However, he had one of the best single seasons for a defenseman in NHL history in 2022-23.
Karlsson is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league. He is a pass-first defenseman with elite finishing ability and he can transition the puck forward and help push the pace. This style of play would work great for players like Sebastian Aho or the speedy Martin Necas. The most significant part is he was a great player for the lowly San Jose Sharks. However, there is one area of his game that needs improvement.
While Karlsson is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, he is also the worst defensively. It is not his strong suit and has been that way for the past few seasons. He had the highest expected goals against (77.37) and was on the ice for 96 goals against in 2022-23. He spent the majority of his ice time alongside Jaycob Megna, and as a pair, they averaged 2.65 expected goals against per 60 minutes. He saw his worst defensive metrics alongside Marc-Edouard Vlasic (4.78 goals against per 60 minutes) and it was evident his defensive play was not there.
Karlsson is a tremendous offensive threat but is a liability in his own end. Things could change in a better-structured system with the Hurricanes, but that is eye-opening.
How Karlsson’s Style Fits With the Hurricanes
Given the style that the Hurricanes like to play, Karlsson would thrive. They were an offensive juggernaut that had the league’s best Corsi for (60.38) and expected goals percentages (60.14 percent). It is not just the forwards that are involved, but the blue line is an active group as they fired 2,383 attempts on the net, with 1,046 on goal. They also had one of the most productive blue lines in the league, with 226 points. Karlsson had almost half of that production alone while being on a weaker Sharks team. In addition, his offensive ability showed with 505 shot attempts and 209 shots on goal.
For a team looking to add extra offense, Karlsson fits the bill. Among defensemen, he scored the most goals (25) and generated the seventh most expected goals (12.4) last season. He looked as good as he ever did in his prime years and became the first defenseman since Brian Leetch to record 100 points.
Solving the Power Play
During the 2020-21 season, the Hurricanes had one of the NHL’s most lethal power plays (second in the league). Since then, they’ve seen it drop to 13th and 20th in the league in the last two seasons. Having a deadly power play can be a weapon when teams are taking trips to the penalty box but that has not been the case for the Hurricanes despite having the weapons.
Karlsson is a player that thrived on the power play last season and had five goals, 19 assists, and 24 points with the man advantage. This level of production would have been good for second on the Hurricanes roster behind Necas. Adding another defenseman that can quarterback the power play would be ideal as they have sorely lacked that extra threat since Tony DeAngelo was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers.
Is Karlsson a Good Fit?
Karlsson is a great hockey player and would make every team better. However, given the constructed roster, fitting him into the fold doesn’t make sense.
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Karlsson is a right-handed defenseman that plays the right side of the ice. The Hurricanes currently have Brent Burns, Brett Pesce, and Jalen Chatfield occupying that side. Making room for him would be hard, and neither of those three is an extra defenseman.
Pesce is entering the final year of his contract and needs an extension, and there are rumors that the team will look to trade him if one cannot be reached. Furthermore, Waddell could make other moves to fill the void.
If the club is looking for a more cost-efficient offensive defenseman, Waddell should reconsider a reunion with DeAngelo. The original trade got shut down due to the rules in the CBA, but could eventually be official. However, he thrived in Carolina and would come at half the cost. He provides similar value and can be plugged into the same situations that Karlsson would. His knowledge of the system and chemistry with the players has upside. Given what next summer brings, he fits the mold of going all in for the 2023-24 season before key decisions need to be made.
Hurricanes Should Walk Away From Trade Talks
Acquiring DeAngelo makes more sense for the club, and like a chunk of the core group he has one year left on his contract. As crucial as this summer was in reinforcing the roster, next summer is just as important. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Brady Skjei, and Jalen Chatfield all need new contracts. Nothing against Karlsson, but keeping this core group intact is more important, so having financial flexibility is needed.
The Hurricanes should stay away from any Karlsson trade talks. As great of a talent as he is, it is not worth the risk. Currently, they have $2.5 million in salary cap space, and adding him complicates things in this regard. Also, he is owed $11.5 million per season for the next four years. Depending on what salary Sharks GM Mike Grier is willing to retain, adding him is not worth the financial risk. The trade package to acquire Karlsson on top of the salary would be a tough pill to swallow. As great as it would be to land him, it is better in the long run to stay away.
