The 2023-24 NHL season has felt like three or even four seasons for the New York Islanders. There were promising stretches and two months that could have easily ended their season. A 5-5-4 November set them back and a 3-7-3 record in January looked like the tipping point. Yet somehow with a 20-17-12 record, they are alive in the playoff picture and right in the middle of the Metropolitan Division.
Related: Islanders’ January Struggles Mirror Last Season’s
The Islanders replaced Lane Lambert with Patrick Roy hoping the fiery new head coach would provide the spark that this team needed. So far, he hasn’t. They won their first game with Roy behind the bench, a Jan. 21 overtime victory over the Dallas Stars, and then lost the next three games. They head into the All-Star Break with a new coach but the same team and that team isn’t good. It’s not the same team that made those deep playoff runs in 2020 and 2021 nor is it the team that snuck into the playoffs last season.
General manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello wants to keep the Islanders a contender, even with signs that this roster requires a retool. They are aging at key positions and starting to decline yet Lamoriello will avoid tearing things down at all costs. With that in mind, a lot must happen before the trade deadline.
Lamoriello Can’t Keep This Roster Intact
If there’s anything Lamoriello has shown in his Islanders tenure, it’s the desire to run it back and keep the group together. He’s stated numerous times that he’s confident in the roster in place and thinks the Islanders can once again make a deep playoff run without much change. Oddly enough, it’s what has doomed them this season with all the long-term contracts leaving the team in shambles.
Sure, the Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal contracts look like they are paying off, with both stars locked into eight-year deals and playing at a high level. The same can’t be said about Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield’s seven-year contracts, which look worse by the day. Engvall has struggled all season with only five goals and nine assists in a top-six role but at 27 years old, there’s still optimism that he can turn things around. Mayfield at 31 has not only fallen off as a reliable defenseman, the questions of a buyout are already looming as he’s both struggled to stay on the ice and lost a step.
Lamoriello makes an occasional big move to impact the roster with last season’s splash being the Horvat addition and this season the shocker was the Roy hiring. However, this roster needs more than one move. It needs significant changes and possibly an overhaul. The defense isn’t the same as it used to be and the depth scoring, especially with Casey Cizikas out of the lineup is non-existent, with only six skaters scoring seven goals or more.
With a flawed roster, the Islanders making a handful of trades will turn this season around and put them back on track to compete. It makes the upcoming month a pivotal one where Lamoriello could move around a lot of players.
Islanders Need To Upgrade Defense Again
Lamoriello tried to duct-tape the defense together earlier in the season, especially when the injuries started to pile up. Mike Reilly was acquired off of waivers and Robert Bortuzzo was acquired from the St. Louis Blues. The two veterans helped but only did so much and when Bortuzzo was placed on injured reserve, the unit was once again depleted of disciplined skaters.
This defense not only needs stability but also a two-way defenseman who can make a difference at the point. The lack of a playmaking presence on the blue line has hurt the Islanders all season long with Noah Dobson being the only defenseman who can open up the offense. While he has six goals and 46 assists this season, the rest of the defense has 12 goals and 33 assists.
The Islanders could take a swing at Torey Krug, a veteran defenseman whose passing ability has led to 19 assists and helped turn around the Blues’ offense, but the move is both risky and has its obstacles. He has declined on the defensive end of the ice and on top of that, the Blues are starting to turn their season around and likely will avoid trading him.
Adam Larsson, while not a two-way defenseman, is the type of skater Lamoriello would love to add at the deadline as a shot-blocking, hard-hitting, defensively savvy veteran. Another defenseman to watch is Matt Dumba, a 29-year-old veteran who has struggled with the Arizona Coyotes but has a good shot from the point and is capable of solidifying the Islanders’ defense. All the above-mentioned skaters won’t require a high asking price and could be minor additions that Lamoriello makes to help the team rebound defensively.
Lamoriello Must Add Versatility To The Top-Six
The issue that plagued the Islanders last season, notably in their playoff series against the Carolina Hurricanes, was the lack of versatility. They couldn’t adjust and win in various ways while the Hurricanes could and ultimately it cost the Islanders the series in six games. The hope heading into this season is that things would change with Lambert heading into his second season behind the bench. They didn’t. They continued to look like the same roster but only one year older and less disciplined, forcing Lamoriello to make a midseason coaching change.
At the All-Star Break, the Islanders must add a versatile skater to the top six. They need a forward who can both find open skaters and create scoring chances while also finding the back of the net with scoring instincts. They need someone who can gash an opponent with speed but also find opportunities in the offensive zone and take advantage of them. The Islanders have too many one-trick ponies and need an addition who can help them make a deep playoff run.
Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames and Jake Guentzel of the Pittsburgh Penguins are the ideal skaters to add. The problem for both pending free agents is the price tag attached to them. Using the Horvat trade as a template, the Flames and Penguins will likely ask for a young NHL-ready player, a top prospect, and a selection in the first round of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. The Islanders can give that up and further deplete their farm system but it’s unlikely Lamoriello will push this team further into prospect and future asset debt.
A cheaper option is Andrei Kuzmenko, a promising young winger who has fallen out of favor with the Vancouver Canucks. A trade between the two teams could happen once again but the Canucks, who are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, will look to add a player who helps out their roster immediately. If the Islanders end up acquiring Kuzmenko, they’d likely have to move Oliver Wahlstrom, Hudson Fashing, or Julien Gauthier to make it happen. He is having a rough season yet in 124 career games played, he’s scored 47 goals and 48 assists, proving he can make a difference in multiple ways and become a difference-maker in the offense.
Roy Must Implement His System
Ultimately, Roy is the one who can make a difference and will have to do so immediately after the All-Star Break. The honeymoon period is over since his hiring on Jan. 20 and now it’s time to see what he’ll contribute to an Islanders roster that not only played sloppy hockey but without structure.
It takes time for coaches to make a true impact and implement their system. However, Roy must turn things around soon with the expectations for the Islanders being a deep playoff run. The team must look improved on the ice and play a more disciplined brand of hockey. On top of that, the Islanders have to prove they can once again win with defense and grind out low-scoring games but also run up the score with a high-powered offense. Last season, they could win the defensive battles and goaltending duels. This season, they can win a high-scoring game but every game requires them to pile up the goals to end up in the win column. For the rest of the season, they’ll have to do both to end up in a playoff position.
Another disastrous month could force the Islanders into a retool. Only one standing point separates them from the seventh-place Washington Capitals, who have played two fewer games than the Islanders. The struggles continuing will have them near the bottom of the division and Lamoriello will have no other option than to trade away players with hopes of adding prospects to one of the worst farm systems in the league.
At the same time, a strong month ahead once again puts the Islanders back near the top of the standings. Only 11 points separate them from the first-place New York Rangers, who have also stumbled in January, going 5-7-2 and a hot streak from the Islanders can significantly close the gap at the top. This season has already been a long one with a lot of ups and downs yet the post All-Star Break stretch might be the one that makes or breaks the season for this team.
