Redemption felt like the appropriate word to describe the New York Islanders’ Feb. 27 victory over the Dallas Stars. After back-to-back losses and four defeats in five games, they finally returned to the win column. Redemption also, fittingly, describes the new top line’s performance in their first game together.
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Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Mathew Barzal played over 22:28; for the most part, they were a non-factor. They failed to score, and they looked hapless on the power play. Then came overtime. Barzal willed the team to victory as he controlled the puck from end to end and found Horvat with a centering pass for the 3-2 winner.
This new top line will be watched closely. All season long, the Islanders have shown they have a top-heavy roster, and outside of the four or five best players, the team has struggled. The offense has been carried by Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson, with the bottom six providing minimal contributions. Now, head coach Patrick Roy is leaning into his star power, we’ll see how far this line can carry the team.
Barzal Continues to Lead Offense
The final shift against the Stars was all anyone needed to see to know that Barzal’s been the best player on the Islanders this season. The All-Star selection was one thing, his ability to carry the team is another. In overtime, he wasn’t going to let his team lose. Even as he was losing stamina, he outskated the Stars’ defense to provide a scoring opportunity.
Barzal found Horvat with a centering pass, and he fired the puck into the back of the net. It’s a connection that has worked throughout the season and helped the Islanders win games they looked poised to lose. Barzal creates scoring chances and has always thrived with a shooter on his line, and with Horvat stepping up, he’s unlocked his offensive skill set.
This season, Barzal has rounded out his game. He’s always been a great passer and capable of setting up other skaters on his line. This season, he’s stepped up as a shooter, with 17 goals, but also as a defensive forward. His 1.2 defensive point shares are tied with Horvat for third on the team and first among forwards. Barzal doesn’t center the top line, but by all means, he’s leading it and is the focal point of the Islanders’ offense.
The problem is that he can’t carry the team. He’s a great player, having one of the best seasons of his career, but he’s not elite like Nathan MacKinnon or Nikita Kucherov, two Hart Trophy frontrunners who will carry their teams to the playoffs. That’s a high bar, and Barzal shouldn’t be compared to those superstars. The issue is that the Islanders need other skaters to step up. They can’t rely on their best player to bail them out and propel them into the postseason.
Nelson Rounding Out the Top Line
Nelson is the top scorer on the Islanders, and his chase for 40 goals has kept them competitive. For most of the season, he centered the second line, and it made his goal-scoring pace even more impressive. He has 25 goals and was finding the back of the net without much help from his linemates.
Auston Matthews, who scored 50 goals through 54 games this season, has Mitch Marner on his line, providing him with great passes. Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman are also having remarkable scoring seasons. The same can’t be said about Nelson. He didn’t have the wingers to provide him with scoring chances, and he often had to create offense by himself.
Roy’s shift has made him a complementary part of a dynamic top line. Instead of doing it all, he’s another scorer on the wing, which is exactly what the top line, especially Barzal, needed. The top line plays at a fast pace and requires shooters who can also set up scoring chances. Anders Lee has become a finisher as he’s lost a step as a skater and he’s become a one-trick pony at this point in his career. Nelson isn’t, and he’s created a special connection with his linemates.
Nelson is one of the few versatile skaters on the Islanders. He can slow the game down but also dominate with his speed by creating chances on the rush. Likewise, he creates scoring chances, as he has 21 assists this season. Whether he’ll remain a playmaker on the wing is unclear, as he’s spent most of his NHL career providing scoring chances from the middle. What is clear is that the Islanders are looking to get the most out of their three best forwards.
With Nelson on the top line, all the Islanders’ production now comes from one line. It’s a gamble, but at this point, Roy must take some risks if they want to make the playoffs. The Islanders are 24-20-14, which puts them in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference. It’s going to take some desperate decisions for them to finish the season strong and leapfrog a handful of teams.
Islanders Top Line Will Only Do So Much
Roy can keep the trio on the ice for roughly 22 minutes every game and ask them to take on a significant role in the forward unit. The problem is that they can’t carry the team.
Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson have combined for 65 goals and 92 assists, the rest of the forwards have 80 goals and 91 assists. Typically, when a roster lacks depth, the coaching staff will try to spread out the talent to cover up weaknesses. Roy is doing the opposite.
The great thing about the game of hockey is that even the best players can only contribute in a limited role. The best skaters are only on the ice for 25 minutes a game. Connor McDavid won the Hart Trophy last season for the third time in his career, but without a great supporting cast, he has yet to win a playoff game past the Second Round. The Islanders will get the most out of their top line, but they won’t make the playoffs on the backs of three forwards, a defenseman, and a great goaltender, and they certainly won’t win the Cup relying on this formula.
Ultimately, the Other Skaters Must Step Up
The irony of the victory over the Stars is that all eyes were on the top line and how it would help the team. Yet, who scored in regulation? Ryan Pulock and Kyle MacLean – the two skaters who were least likely to find the back of the net.
The Islanders have waited all season for their depth to step up, and now is the time for them to do so. The hope is that some of the forwards, notably Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Casey Cizikas, and Pierre Engvall can start scoring. Likewise, outside of Dobson, who has seven goals and 53 assists, a defenseman must start making an impact from the point. The top line will take some pressure off the rest of the roster, but now it’s up to the rest of the team to make a difference.
Roy was hired to save the Islanders and turn this season around. So far, he’s failed to do that, going 5-5-3 with the same flawed team that was a mess under former head coach Lane Lambert. The line change might backfire and leave the Islanders out of the playoffs, but it might work and make Roy look like a genius.
