The New York Islanders return from the holiday break a mess. Their Dec. 23 must-win game against the hapless Buffalo Sabres ended in a 7-1 loss. At 13-15-7, the Islanders have the worst record in the Metropolitan Division and the fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference.
Related: Insider Believes Islanders’ Brock Nelson Likely to Test Free Agent Market in 2025
They face the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dec. 28 in their first game back from the break, a struggling team in their own right. The Penguins are 16-15-5 and in fourth place in the Metropolitan, but like the Islanders, they have glaring issues throughout the roster. Both teams must face the inevitable – that a retool is in their future. The problem is that both teams aren’t prepared to do so, at least not yet.
Penguins Have Difficult Core Questions Ahead
The Penguins have a great core that led them to multiple Stanley Cup titles in the last decade, but they are getting old. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are all 37 or older. Throw in Erik Karlsson, a former Norris Trophy-winning defenseman they acquired in the 2023 offseason, and the team has four skaters who are 34 years old or older. Sure, they are all playing at a high level, especially Crosby, who has 10 goals and 29 assists in 36 games, but eventually, the Penguins must move on from this group.
Moving on from them will be hard, considering they have been integral to the franchise’s success, but worse, the Penguins don’t have elite talent in the pipeline to replace them. It’s why the Jake Guentzel trade was a difficult one to make. Yes, they received a great haul of young talent and bolstered their depth, but they let a star walk out the door in his prime.
When the Penguins decide to move on from their core, it could be a while before they are competitive again. They hit the jackpot in 1984 when they drafted Mario Lemieux first overall and caught lightning in a bottle again in 2005 when they landed Crosby with the top pick. Both generational talents helped the Penguins win five Stanley Cup titles and put the Steel City on the NHL map. It’s unlikely the organization will be as fortunate again when they retool or tear things down.
Islanders Must Move On from Multiple Players
The Islanders are in a tougher situation. First, they have many aging players on bad contracts. Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are 34 and 32, they don’t enter free agency until the 2026 offseason. Adam Pelech is 30 and won’t hit free agency until 2029, while Ryan Pulock is 30 and won’t be an unrestricted free agent until 2030, and Scott Mayfield is 32 and under contract until the 2030 offseason. That’s what happens when a general manager (GM) decides to double down on his roster, signing the veterans to seven or eight-year contracts.
If this team hopes to get back into contention, those players must be taken off the roster. Whether via trades or buyouts or waiting out some contracts, the Islanders need younger skaters and fresh faces to be competitive again.
Second, the Islanders don’t have the elite talent to carry them if GM Lou Lamoriello decides to retool. The core is good but not great. In the last two seasons, the Islanders’ core group has made it to the playoffs but have lost in the first round. While the core isn’t talented enough to bail out a depleted roster, they are a good starting point if management decides to pivot.
Islanders Have a Young Core to Build Around
Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson, and Ilya Sorokin are all in their primes. Throw in Alexander Romanov, who is a restricted free agent (RFA) after the season but will likely be extended long-term, and the team has four players in their 20s to build around. Sure, they might not be stars, but the Islanders can still add depth to put together a decent team in the future.
This doesn’t include players on the roster who can become key pieces in the future. Isaiah George, Maxim Tsyplakov, and Kyle MacLean can also become reliable depth players, especially George who has the upside of a top-pair defenseman. The Islanders don’t need to tear things down to stay competitive.
Instead, if they make a few trades and receive great returns at the deadline for Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, they can enter 2025-26 with a strong group. It’s because they have a lot of depth or skaters who can become role players for years to come while the team adds talent elsewhere.
The Islanders have the infrastructure to add depth through the pipeline. But that’s where the other issue starts to surface – the team needs a youth movement but doesn’t have one coming anytime soon.
Islanders Farm System Isn’t Great
The Bridgeport Islanders are one of the worst teams in the American Hockey League (AHL). They’ve played 28 games this season and have only won six. It’s not just that the team is bad. Few of those prospects are poised to make it to the NHL level. Alex Jefferies has a good chance up front, but William Dufour and Matthew Maggio are a bit of a reach. That’s about it.
Even worse, Dufour and Maggio have plateaued in the AHL. They have combined for five goals and 12 assists while providing minimal impact. Both were drafted in the fifth round, and they are starting to play like it. Dufour can be a depth scorer, while Maggio might contribute someday in a middle-six role in the NHL, but the upside isn’t there for either of them.
Sure, Cole Eiserman is a bright spot – the Islanders’ first-round pick in the 2024 Draft – but it will take at least one, if not more, seasons before he’s in the NHL. On top of that, it’s too early to know if he can be an elite talent or just a reliable NHLer (his play at the amateur level is great, but the AHL and NHL can humble any elite prospect. The Islanders will need Eiserman to be a star to turn the team around.
Penguins Farm System is Promising
On the other hand, the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins are one of the best teams in the league and have a surplus of talent. The Penguins’ farm system is underwhelming, but they have a lot of skaters who can make it in the NHL and are stepping up on the AHL team. Ville Koivunen, Tristan Broz, and Rutger McGroarty have combined for 18 goals and 30 assists, and all three are 23 or younger. The trio of forwards will add depth and possibly become key parts of the Penguins’ offense soon enough.
When Pittsburgh moves on from the older skaters, they already have the prospects ready to help them pivot. Although some might underachieve or struggle once they join the NHL team, the Penguins have a lot of skaters who look poised to make their mark and give the team a much-needed youth movement.
When Penguins and Islanders Might Pivot
This season, the last-place Islanders might be closer to a retool, and it could start as soon as this trade deadline. Trading Nelson and Palmieri would get the ball rolling, and actively shopping Pageau in the offseason will further help the team’s cause.
That said, if the Penguins miss the playoffs for the third season in a row, they will have no choice but to start retooling. Head coach Mike Sullivan is already in the hot seat, and another disappointing season might force Kyle Dubas and the front office to make a change. They might not part from the core, but the clock is ticking on some big movement from this organization.
Both the Islanders and Penguins will have to retool, eventually. They’ve both refused to do so in recent seasons and have pushed to contend, which has resulted in them both being borderline playoff teams with not much upside. It’s why the rest of this season will determine which team hits the reset button first.
