Ivar Stenberg Has Surpassed Gavin McKenna in the 2026 NHL Draft

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Entering the 2025–26 season, winger Gavin McKenna was the consensus favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NHL Draft. Considering his jaw-dropping numbers last season in the Western Hockey League (WHL), that seems fair enough.

McKenna is still at the top of most boards, but there’s an emerging contender who has arguably surpassed him to this point: Ivar Stenberg. The young winger is having a record-breaking season in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) while the former is still finding his way in college.

Looking at Stenberg’s Generational Numbers

Let’s start with the numbers, just to paint this picture clearly. Stenberg, at 18 years old, has 24 points (six goals, 18 assists) in 25 games this season in the SHL—arguably the most challenging hockey league outside the NHL. He is the top scorer on a Frölunda HC team that is, for all intents and purposes, Sweden’s version of the Colorado Avalanche. They are 21–4–0.

Ivar Stenberg Team Sweden
Ivar Stenberg, Team Sweden (Photo by Leila Devlin/Getty Images)

Stenberg’s 24 points rank sixth all-time among draft-year SHL players, according to Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects. Hall of Fame twin brothers Daniel and Henrik Sedin occupy first and second place, with 42 points in 50 games for the former and 34 points in 49 games for the latter.

With Stenberg all but a lock for the 2026 World Junior Championship, he’ll miss some time (several games’ worth), which will make setting the record more difficult. But he’s already made his mark in the SHL.

Related: Projecting Sweden’s Roster for the 2026 World Junior Championship

Currently on a 10-game point streak, Stenberg is the only player aged 18 or younger to achieve that feat. The previous record-holder, per the FloHockey broadcast of Frölunda’s Dec. 4 game vs. Djurgårdens IF, was Tomas Sandström (nine games in 1982–83; his draft-plus-one season, meaning he was a draft class older than Stenberg).

We haven’t ever seen numbers like this. If Stenberg is already a top player in perhaps the next best thing to the NHL, one can only imagine his ceiling.

What Makes Stenberg a Special Prospect

“So, what’s the catch? Surely, he’s bad defensively.” Actually, it’s quite the opposite. Stenberg is a special prospect because of his offensive prowess and ability to knife his way through the neutral zone while simultaneously covering for defense.

In the goal above, that’s all on display. Stenberg gets a steal in the defensive zone and shortly after, puts the puck in the back of the net.

Consistent in my viewings this season has been Stenberg’s defensive-zone participation. He helps retrieve pucks and aids breakouts, which is part of the reason why he’s so dominant off the rush. As if his point totals weren’t enough evidence, he plays a pro-ready game.

While Stenberg isn’t overly physical, he doesn’t get thrown around, either. If he bulks up a bit more, the 6-foot, 181-pound winger will be close to the NHL average. He has no fatal flaw, from the looks of it.

Why McKenna Could Fall Out of Favor

Then, you have McKenna. In the midst of a month-long break, his stock is only going down. But that was already happening before the pause.

As a true freshman at Penn State University, McKenna has 18 points (four goals, 14 assists) in 16 games, averaging 21:30 each night. Immediately becoming the face of a team that made the Frozen Four last spring after a dominant WHL run is obviously impressive, but it objectively falls short of Stenberg.

Let’s put it this way. McKenna and Stenberg are scoring at about the same per-game rate, except the latter is much better defensively, doing it in a much tougher league, and doing it with way fewer minutes. It’s actually not even close, to be honest.

Right now, Stenberg is my No. 1 prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft. What the Swedish winger is doing hasn’t been touched by anyone in the class—that’s his case for first overall.

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