A hot topic amongst Winnipeg Jets fans is whether or not their team is an improved one on paper heading into 2023-24. They are coming off of a campaign in which they posted a 46-33-3 record, which was good for 95 points and eighth in the Western Conference standings.
Forty-six wins was good for their third-best mark since the franchise moved back to Winnipeg in 2011, but it hardly felt like it given the way the season ended. Injuries mounted as they were simply outmatched in the first round against the Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights.
There is a boatload of variables at play here, which one could argue makes it a simple no for whether or not they have improved. In this piece, I am going to dive into those variables and outline what needs to go right in order for the Jets to improve upon their 2022-23 season.
The Winnipeg Jets Projected 2023-24 Opening Night Roster
Let’s start with projecting what the Jets will look like on the opening night of the season. In goal, you can expect Connor Hellebuyck to take the crease with Laurent Brossoit backing him up. On defence, no moves have been made, so barring any training camp surprises, you may see the defence pairings repeat from a season ago.
The major changes to the Jets roster are found up front with the forward group. The tweet below features DailyFaceoff.com’s line projections for the Jets this upcoming campaign, and many fans are in agreement that the forward group presented is an upgrade over last season.
Many fans took issue with the way these lines were deployed as well, stating that placing all three of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers on one line may not spread the offence out enough in the top six. While the forward group is deeper, which is something I will dive into later in the piece, the top-end talent definitely took a hit with the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade.
The Biggest Question: Who Will Be the Second-Line Centre?
Arguably the biggest talking point as training camp inches closer is the second-line centre role. There are three main candidates to win that role for opening night, and each one provides a different skill set than the other. THW’s Hunter Tycholis argues the case for 20-year-old Cole Perfetti in his piece, stating that, “Due to his young age and breakout potential, he should be the player to carry the mantle at centre going forward.”
Related: Jets: Cole Perfetti’s Future Should be at Centre
When asked about the Dubois trade at the 2023 NHL Draft, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff brought up Perfetti when discussing opportunities: “It’ll give an opportunity for a like Perfetti to grow, he was a top ten pick for us as a centre-man, and this is an opportunity.” Perfetti has played wing throughout this 69 career NHL games up until this point, but he may move down the middle with the opportunity available.
The return from the Dubois trade netted the Jets Gabriel Vilardi in return, who they have since signed to a two-year contract worth $6.875 million. Vilardi broke into the NHL on the wing, but in the most important time of the year when the Los Angeles Kings were in the playoffs, they moved him back to centre and he thrived in that spot. Being 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds makes Vilardi the likely bet to win the second-line centre role out of training camp.
With both of those players having success on the wing, if Rick Bowness and his coaching staff are looking for a reliable, steady presence in that role, Vladislav Namestnikov proved that he can handle those minutes last season. The Jets acquired him at the trade deadline, and due to injury, he was forced up the lineup in the playoffs and succeeded as a second-line centre.
No doubt about it — you need good centre depth to win in the NHL. Whoever resumes this role out of training camp will have to fill the Dubois-sized shoes left behind, as the Jets are looking to contend for a playoff spot in 2023-24 and centre depth will be a large factor in whether or not that is achieved.
Forward Group is Deeper on Paper
The Jets’ forward group heading into 2023-24 is a complete group, that should feature impact players on all four lines. Presuming positive luck in the health department, this shapes up to be one of the deepest forward groups the Jets have iced since 2020-21.
Nino Niederreiter played in 27 games (regular season and playoffs) for the organization last season after he was acquired at the trade deadline. Alex Iafallo, who was brought over in the Dubois trade, is a proven middle-six contributor who posted 36 points in 59 games last season. That is without taking into account the potential development of Morgan Barron, Rasmus Kupari, and David Gustafsson on the fourth line.
While the second-line centre is a question mark, there is no question of whether or not the Jets’ bottom six is improved. Adam Lowry’s wingers on the third line will be a favourable upgrade from last season, which should ease some in-game matchup decisions for Bowness.
There are positives and negatives to having a forward group that is structured this way. Many fans will point to the Golden Knights’ depth at forward and use that as a positive talking point, but that quickly becomes a negative when they are missing Jack Eichel and Mark Stone-level players. How much can depth cover if the team is lacking top-end talent? If Perfetti and Vilardi are able to take yet another step forward off of their previous campaigns, the Jets should have no issues icing the deepest forward core they’ve had in many seasons.
Fans Underestimate Impact of Pierre-Luc Dubois
The Jets did well in the Dubois trade, at least on paper. They received fair value, especially when comparing the return to other blockbuster trades this offseason. Because of the way the Dubois era ended in Winnipeg, many fans have a negative perception of what he contributed to the Jets on the ice.
Related: Jets: 3 Pros and 3 Cons of Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade With Kings
During his time with the organization, he was a fringe top-line centre who, in 2022-23, led the team in individual expected goals per 60 (ixG/60) according to Evolving Hockey. While the trade does provide the Jets with more flexibility throughout the lineup, and arguably the best bottom six they have had in years, he does leave a gap behind in the top six. He finished the previous season with a career-high 63 points in 73 games — by far his best season as a pro, and at age 25, he’s a good bet to follow that up with the Kings.
With this departure, Scheifele will have to replicate his 42-goal campaign from last year. If he is able to do that, then potentially the Jets’ depth and emergence from Vilardi or Perfetti puts them right back in the playoff race.
To say they are better or worse heading into this season is a very tough question to answer, but through this piece, we have discovered that they are a more balanced team. Bowness typically likes to roll four lines and keep his lineup balanced, and that makes him a natural fit to run this roster. There is one major question looming about the roster, and direction of the franchise, and that could put a dent in their late-season push for the playoffs.
The Mark Scheifele & Connor Hellebuyck Dilemma
When asked about Scheifele and Hellebuyck at the draft, Cheveldayoff responded by saying, “Our focus is that they are Winnipeg Jets and we’re looking forward to moving forward with them.” Given how quiet the markets have seemingly been on these two players, it is seemingly a lock they will start the season with the team, making trade deadline day the next selling point.
Here is a mental exercise: You are Kevin Cheveldayoff for the day. It’s early March and the Jets are in third place in the Central Division and primed to make the playoffs. However, both Scheifele and Hellebuyck have not expressed interest in signing an extension to this point. What do you do?
This is a very real possibility for the real-life Cheveldayoff, who may be forced to trade his star goaltender and top-line centre at the deadline even if the Jets are firmly in a playoff spot. While the organization has expressed interest in re-signing these players, there hasn’t been much public buzz surrounding those negotiations. The most recent example of a team that kept their expiring unrestricted free agents as “self-rentals” was the Columbus Blue Jackets, who kept Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky into their final year of unrestricted free agent status, and they both signed with other franchises in free agency the following season, which queued a long-lasting rebuild for the Blue Jackets.
This is the kind of decision that could make this entire article a moot point at the trade deadline. Could the improved roster and potential early-season success convince both these players to re-sign? Is Cheveldayoff willing to lose these assets for nothing in return? It is definitively the biggest storyline surrounding the Jets heading into 2023-24, and it will become all the more interesting if the Jets find themselves in a playoff spot come early March.
This is the truth: on paper, this team is more balanced throughout the lineup, which could prove to be a massive advantage in a competitive Western Conference. However, it cannot go unstated that they are lacking top-end talent up front, and an injury to a main contributor could be detrimental. With Hellebuyck in goal, they are always a solid bet to contend for a playoff spot, but is it to be seen if he finishes the season as a member of the organization.
