The Tampa Bay Lightning fell to the Florida Panthers 3-2 on Wednesday night, but there was still a moment of celebration. When Nikita Kucherov got the Bolts on the board early in the third period, he scored the 300th goal of his career.
The 30-year-old forward has impressed for some time now, so this milestone is no surprise. However, it’s still impressive to look back at what he’s already accomplished and what he’s on pace to achieve among the all-time Lightning greats.
Look Out Martin St. Louis, Here Comes Kucherov
Heading into this season, Kucherov had already racked up some hardware. His performance during the 2018-19 season earned him his first career Hart Trophy. His 128 points earned him his first career Art Ross Trophy, as well. He joined Lightning great and Hockey Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis as the only two players to win either award in franchise history. This season, he is once again leading the NHL in points. Another Art Ross Trophy would match St. Louis.
Just a quick fun fact about those 128 points. At the time, that was the most points scored in a season in the 21st century. This is still the record for Russian-born players and a Lightning record.
“I think, and I’m biased, I think right now he’s at a level above everyone else,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said. “I think he’s playing better now than he did in his MVP year” (from ‘Is Nikita Kucherov having an MVP season right under our noses?,’ The Athletic, Dec. 17, 2023).
Cooper makes a point that is backed up statistically. His current points-per-game pace (1.67) is higher than his 1.56 points per game during his Hart Trophy-winning year (from ‘Is Nikita Kucherov having an MVP season right under our noses?,’ The Athletic, Dec. 17, 2023). Perhaps this season could be enough to make him the first Lightning player to win two Hart Trophies.
Kucherov’s success goes beyond the regular season – and the back-to-back Stanley Cups. Despite never being awarded the Conn Smythe, the Lightning don’t win those Cups without him. In both Cup runs, he was the playoff leader in assists and points. In the Lightning’s third-straight run to the Stanley Cup Final, Kucherov only played in six games. While all six were against the Colorado Avalanche in the Final, there’s always that what-if had he been in full form.
Kucherov’s Rise in the Ranks
Kucherov becomes just the fourth player in franchise history to reach the 300-goal milestone. He joins St. Louis (365), Lightning Hall-of-Famer Vincent Lecavalier (383), and Steven Stamkos (530).
He’s been at fourth all-time in goals for some time, but it won’t take long for that to change. Assuming he plays in all 81 possible games this season – he missed a game due to illness – he would add another 31 goals at his current pace – a total of 55 on the year. A healthy Kucherov is on pace to pass St. Louis before the end of next season. He’d likely pass Lecavalier sometime in the early half of 2025-26.
While he played all 82 games last season, Kucherov’s health remains a question mark after recent years. He missed the shortened 2020-21 regular season recovering from hip surgery and played in only 47 games in 2021-22. Previous injuries don’t always mean there will be a future injury, but there are no guarantees. Think of how much sooner Stamkos would have reached 500 goals and 1,000 points if not for the injury bug. There was a year he played just 17 regular-season games. But for now, Kucherov is on pace to reach these marks and rather quickly.
Other Milestones to Keep an Eye On
Reaching the 300-goal mark is just one of the possible milestones that Kucherov could reach this season. He needs just 13 more assists to reach 500 for his career, and he needs 13 more points to reach 800 career points. Where does that leave him among other Lightning greats? Unlike goals, where likely Stamkos has him beat – even without an extension – Kucherov is chasing the top spot for assists and points.
Just a note, this pace will be evaluated a bit differently as this is a more long-term projection. For example, if Kucherov plays as many games for the Bolts as Stamkos, the Lightning leader in goals, has already played (1,036), he won’t catch up to him at this pace. He wouldn’t even be at the 500-goal mark yet (the estimate is about 457).
But for points and assists, he’s on pace to break records – by the time he plays the same number of games as Stamkos, the current all-time leader, he will long pass him in points. At 1,036 games, Stamkos has 1,091 points. Kucherov would be exactly at 1,200 points.
By the time he reaches the number of games St. Louis played in Tampa Bay (972), Kucherov should have blown past the team assist record. St. Louis had 588, and Kucherov is on pace for 697. At the same number of games as Stamkos, who will become the new all-time Lightning assists leader soon, he would be at 743 assists.
A lot has to go right for these marks to happen: health, contract extension, etc. But one thing that’s locked down is that Kucherov has solidified himself as an all-time great for the Lightning and perhaps one of the better players of his generation in the NHL.
