Welcome to this edition of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Stock Up and Stock Down, a column detailing the highs and lows of the team’s performance.
At the quarter mark of the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning are 9-6-5 and are sitting in third place in the Atlantic Division. This is not totally surprising, as many pundits felt that the Lightning would finish the 2023-24 season in that position. However, getting to that position has been quite a roller coaster ride. After going through a three-game losing streak at the beginning of November, they just finished a recent three-game homestand going 2-0-1 after the Thanksgiving eve (Nov. 22) overtime loss to the Winnipeg Jets.
The upside to this record was they were able to earn their 23 points without all-world goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who underwent back surgery to address a lumbar disc herniation in late September and was initially ruled out for the first two months of the season. However, it appears that the Lightning’s first-round pick in 2012 will be returning to the ice when they start a three-game road trip against the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday (Nov. 24).
Head coach Jon Cooper mentioned his return after the Jets game and it seems all but certain when, on Thursday (Nov. 23) the the team put backup goaltender Matt Tomkins on waivers. If he clears waivers, which is not a sure thing with a few other NHL teams needing goaltending help, Tomkins will end up with the Syracuse Crunch. Vasilevskiy’s return will be a needed boost to the Lightning, who have managed to keep themselves in the playoff picture in his absence.
Stock Up: Matt Tomkins
So how does a goaltender who managed a 1-2 record with a .889 save percentage warrant a stock-up? First of all, in the two games he lost, the Lightning played horribly in front of him. If you look back at the goals he allowed in those two losses, you find that there was not much he could have done to stop many of them.
Secondly, let’s give credit to someone who worked hard to finally reach the highest level of his sport at 29 years old. Whatever his future might bring, whether it is in a Lightning sweater or not, we wish him well.
Stock Down: Overtime
Before Brandon Hagel slammed in the overtime winner against the Boston Bruins (Nov. 21), the Lightning had lost eight consecutive overtime games before that one. Their previous overtime victory came on Dec. 3, 2022, versus the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the overtime loss to the Jets, the Lightning are now 1-9 in their last ten contests that have gone to extra time.
The 3-on-3 NHL overtime is an interesting format. There have been quite a few theories as to why the Lightning have struggled with this. Statistics show that teams that win 3-on-3 games generally have more individual possessions (53 percent), and more time with the puck in those possessions (54 percent). While the Lightning have made big improvements in the faceoff circle this season, that has not translated to overtime as they have been outshot 14-0 in overtime before Hagel’s game-winner. Of course, winning in overtime during the playoffs is much more important and has a different format. Still, the Lightning are missing opportunities to pick up vital points that could be a major factor in whether or not they make the playoffs.
Stock Down: Falling Behind
The Lightning have been getting into a bad habit of falling behind early in games and then having to fight their way back to even try to tie. While many will praise the team for their resiliency in battling back, the reality is that good teams don’t put themselves in holes this many times, as Steven Stamkos addressed after the Jets’ game. “We have some confidence from coming back and winning some games and knowing that we’ve had success doing that, so that helps. But it’s certainly not a recipe, so we want to cut that back a little bit.”
Stock Up: Steven Stamkos
Speaking of Stamkos, the 33-year-old is telling the Lightning and the rest of the NHL that he can still play at an elite level and recently has hit some milestones for his career. After scoring a power-play goal against the Jets, he now has 198 power play goals in his career, passing Jarome Iginla (197) to tie Brian Bellows (198) for the 20th most in NHL history. Alex Ovechkin is the only active player with more (300).
When Stamkos scored his fourth game-tying goal in the final minute of regulation against the Bruins, he passed Alexander Selivanov (three) for the most in Lightning franchise history, and has now scored goals in three straight games and has at least one point in his last four. He has 21 points, including eight goals, in 18 games this season which demonstrates that his skills are just as sharp as ever.
Stock Up: Nikita Kucherov
Not surprisingly, Kucherov continues to be one of the most productive players on the Lightning and in the league. His 29 points put him in third place for points scored for all NHL skaters. There have been a lot of things said about Kucherov’s play throughout his career, but Stamkos mentioned one of Kucherov’s best talents after he set up his teammate for the game tying goal against the Bruins. “There’s only maybe one other guy in the league that can make that pass, if that.”
Related: Lightning Defense Needs A Wake-Up Call
There are three important road games coming up against the Carolina Hurricanes (Nov. 24), Colorado Avalanche (Nov. 27), and Arizona Coyotes (Nov. 28). With Vasilevskiy expecting to make his return, it will be interesting to see if his presence gives the Lightning the needed spark and continues to push the team in the right direction to become a serious Stanley Cup contender.
