The Tampa Bay Lightning were a wild-card team heading into this season. With a lot of moving pieces over the summer, including the departure of captain Steven Stamkos, there was a culture shift in the organization. However, after four games in 2024-25, the Lightning have looked like one of the best teams in the NHL.
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Despite all the new faces, the Lightning have developed a new brand of hockey under long-time head coach Jon Cooper. The team is dominant at 5-on-5, which accounts for roughly 75% of each game. Furthermore, the Lightning’s forward depth is massively improved compared to last season, when their bottom six was often pinned in the zone and couldn’t generate any offense. Yet, the most pleasant surprise has been a new line combination that no one could have anticipated.
Nick Paul Completes Second Line
Heading into the season, many expected Nick Paul to fill the third-line center role to ensure stability in the bottom six, especially considering their lack of depth last season.
Tampa Bay acquired Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators at the 2022 NHL trade deadline, and he was an immediate fit for the team. That offseason, the Lightning inked him to an 8-year deal with an annual average value of $3.15 million. In year two of his contract last season, Paul set a career-high in goals and points with 24 goals and 46 points in 82 games, even earning minutes on the top power-play unit.
Now in year three, Paul has been elevated to the Lightning’s second line alongside workhorses Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. While this combination seemed to come out of left field, the trio has been the Lightning’s most dominant forward line at 5-on-5, and one of the best in the NHL. What has made them so good in the first four games of the regular season?
Stats Behind Tampa Bay’s New Line Combination
This line can produce points, on top of their dominant possession metrics. All three are on a point-per-game pace with steady production at 5-on-5. Cirelli, who centers the line, has a goal and three assists in four games, while Hagel has two goals and two assists, and Paul has a goal and three assists (via EvolvingHockey).
The line also has a combined 83.8 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 5-on-5, which ranks first amongst lines with more than 20 minutes together (via MoneyPuck). Furthermore, they rank fourth in shot attempts percentage (Corsi for) and second in unblocked shot attempts percentage (Fenwick) amongst forward lines. This trio can control the pace of play while also contributing on the scoresheet.
What the Future Holds for Hagel-Cirelli-Paul Line
The Hagel-Cirelli-Paul line can do just about anything. All three players are defensively sound and can also produce offensively. They have a good mix of size and speed, and the line can generate scoring chances in many ways. They are versatile, similar to the Coleman-Gourde-Goodrow line during the Lighnting’s Stanley Cup runs, and they are non-stop on the forecheck, creating turnovers and retrieving loose pucks, while also generating rush opportunities to supplement their offensive zone dominance.
Cooper has some rising talent, like rookie Conor Geekie who’s playing a third-line role, but he has no choice but to keep the top-six group together for now. They have been off the charts to start the season, including the Lightning’s new top line featuring Jake Guentzel. The Lightning are back in action on Monday night (Oct. 21) against division rival Toronto Maple Leafs with a 7 p.m. puck drop.
