The Tampa Bay Lightning have punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs! The team has kicked it into gear and is starting to play like the juggernaut that teams across the league have feared for so long. Nikita Kucherov is no longer the sole engine driving the offense, as Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos have really stepped it up lately. Andrei Vasilevskiy just had his best month of the season in March. The defense is stable, and the Lightning’s special teams units are elite. All of that has been happening while the top contenders in the Atlantic Division have faltered and look vulnerable heading into the playoffs. They legitimately look like contenders and could not have gotten hot at a better time. With the Lightning having secured a spot in the playoffs, the only question that remains is: who will they play in the first round? Let’s look at their most likely opponents.
Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins currently lead the Atlantic Division and are the most likely first-round matchup for the Lightning. The Bruins have 46 wins, 17 losses, and 15 overtime losses this season and are currently still in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy. This season, the team is aiming to avenge their first round exit, which shocked the hockey world after the Bruins achieved the greatest regular season record of all time. They are led in points by David Pastrnak, who has 47 goals and 107 points this season.
The other notable performers on the Bruins’ offense are Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, and Pavel Zacha, although none of them are even within 40 points of Pastrnak. Charlie McAvoy leads their defensive corps, while Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark make up what is arguably the best goalie tandem in the league. Notable to Lightning fans, the Bruins roster boasts a couple former Lightning players in Pat Maroon and Kevin Shattenkirk.
Of course, the Bruins are quite a familiar foe to the Lightning in the postseason. The Lightning beat the Bruins in five games in the second round of the 2018 Playoffs as well as the 2020 Playoffs. How has the Lightning fared against the Bruins this season, though? The Lightning faced the Bruins four times and bested them in three of those matchups.
On their first meeting of the season on Nov. 20, 2023, Stamkos scored a clutch goal in the third period, and Brandon Hagel finished the job in overtime to give the Lightning a 5-4 win. The Bruins got their revenge on Jan. 6, 2024, with a 7-3 thrashing. In the end, though, the Lightning took the regular season series with a 3-2 win on Feb. 13 and a 3-1 win on March 27. Overall, the games between these two have been tightly contested, and should these teams meet in the playoffs, it will likely be more of the same.
Florida Panthers
The Lightning’s in-state rivals have really come into their own as of late. Last season, the Florida Panthers just barely slipped into the playoffs, and they made the most of their opportunity. They got past the Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes to make it to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history. The Panthers did fall short, but it was an impressive run nonetheless, and this season, they have built on that success.
The South Florida-based team has looked dominant throughout the season and sits in second place in the Atlantic Division with 102 points. They are headlined by Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov. Reinhart, in his contract year, has really come into his own. This season, he has a whopping 53 goals, which is quite an increase from his previous best of 33. There are also some new faces that the team added at the deadline to boost their chances of winning a Cup, including Kyle Okposo and Vladimir Tarasenko.
While the whole team has played quite well, one of the more overlooked elements of the team’s surge to prominence is the play of Sergei Bobrovsky. The Russian goalie has posted a .913 save percentage (SV%) compared to last season’s .901 SV%, and that has made a world of difference. If Bobrovsky can keep it up and star defenseman Aaron Ekblad can get healthy for the playoffs, the Panthers will be a tough out for anyone.
Like the Bruins, the Lightning have met the Panthers a couple times in the postseason recently. First, there was the 2021 Playoffs, where the Lightning beat the Panthers in Round 1 in six games. Then there was the rematch in Round 2 of the following season, where the Lightning swept their rival. Things have been a bit different since that series, though.
The Lightning had a four-game losing streak against the Panthers that dated back to last season before their encounter on March 16. Make no mistake, though, that even though the Lightning won 5-3, they were badly outplayed and only spared a loss because of an incredible performance from Vasilevskiy. The playoffs are a different animal from the regular season, and the Lightning do have the players to compete and potentially beat the Panthers, but the recent matchups are reason for caution. Before March 16 of this year, the last Lightning victory over the Panthers was a 4-1 win on Dec. 10, 2022, and that was the last time the Lightning had outplayed the Panthers in a game. Between the recent history and the physical game the Panthers play, this is a matchup the Lightning probably do not want to see in Round 1.
New York Rangers
The New York Rangers are on the cusp of finishing in first place in the Metro Division for the first time since the 2014-15 season. That is in no small part thanks to the efforts of Artemi Panarin, who does not get nearly as much credit as he deserves. The Russian winger has put up over 100 points (115 points to be exact) for the first time in his career and is within shooting distance of 50 goals with his current total of 46. The Rangers’ other top forwards, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, and Mika Zibanejad, are all reliable performers who will finish the season with at least 25 goals each.
The team’s real strength lies with their top defenseman, Adam Fox, who is one of the most well-rounded players in the game right now. He has 68 points this season, and he puts up impressive defensive numbers too. A defenseman who can do it all is a rare and valuable commodity in today’s game. Then there is star netminder Igor Shesterkin. The goalie’s .911 SV% and 2.65 goals-against average (GAA) are not going to win him the Vezina, but they are still strong numbers, and this is a goalie that can heat up at a moment’s notice.
His backup, Jonathan Quick, is not too shabby either, with a .913 SV% and 2.56 GAA. His numbers might be slightly better than Shesterkin’s, but that is only because he has about half of the workload. Even still, he has been one of the better stories in the NHL this year. The American goaltender has been much better than anyone was expecting, considering his performances in recent seasons and the fact that he’s 38 years old. It is unlikely he will see much action in the playoffs, but he provides excellent depth for the Rangers in the goalie position.
Related: Lightning Clinch Playoff Spot For 7th Straight Season
Last season, the Rangers crashed out of the first round in seven games. What makes it worse is that the loss was to their rival, the New Jersey Devils. This year, they will not have to worry about the Devils, and if they win the Presidents’ Trophy, they will be facing whoever snags the second wild card spot. Fail to do so, and they might be facing the Lightning. That aforementioned 2014-15 season included a playoff matchup between the Lightning and Rangers and was arguably the first marquee playoff win for the Lightning under coach Jon Cooper.
The two sides battled it out in the Eastern Conference Final, and the Lightning came out on top thanks to a 2-0 shutout courtesy of Ben Bishop in Game 7. Far more recently, the Lightning and Rangers tangoed in the 2022 Eastern Conference Final. The Rangers jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the series before the Lightning course corrected and won four straight. This season, the Rangers have gotten the best of the Lightning in the regular season. They won the first two matchups by scores of 5-1 and 3-1. The Lightning were able to reel it in during their final meeting on March 14 and win 6-3. If these two meet, we could be in for another goalie duel like in 2021-22.
Final Thoughts
Along with these three teams, there is an outside shot that the Lightning face the Carolina Hurricanes and a very slim chance that they face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round. Those are two more quality opponents that the Lightning have some history with in the playoffs. The truth is, every matchup will be a tough one. The only teams that should be heavily favored in the first round are whoever wins the Presidents’ Trophy and the second-place team in the Metro Division, because it does not seem like anyone wants those last two playoff spots.
Everyone else is going to be in a matchup that should be nearly even on paper. There is no subpar team that the Lightning can face to get a free pass to the next round. The good news is, though, that there are not many teams that the Lightning are incapable of beating. They can go toe to toe with any team listed in this article and come out on top. Will they? Time will tell, but they certainly have the ability to do so. The important thing is to finish the season strong and stay healthy. So long as the team keeps playing well, they should not worry about positioning. Everything will work itself out in the end, and Lightning fans should be in for an exciting first round soon enough.
