As the Toronto Maple Leafs look ahead to the 2025 offseason, the impending expiration of John Tavares‘ $11 million cap hit presents both challenges and opportunities. Despite still being a productive player—scoring 29 goals and recording 65 points last season—Tavares’s diminishing play-driving ability has raised questions about his value at such a high salary. With his contract coming off the books, the Leafs find themselves at a crossroads as they explore their options for bolstering the roster.
Ironically, the most realistic option might be keeping him on the team.
What Is Plan A for the Maple Leafs in 2025?
If Tavares is going to look for market value next summer, the Maple Leafs will probably need to look elsewhere. They can’t afford to pay him what another team might, nor should they want to. However, the upcoming free-agent market for centers in 2025 appears to be less than stellar.
As Harman Dayal of The Athletic points out, unless a significant name like Leon Draisaitl or Sidney Crosby unexpectedly becomes available (highly unlikely), the options are limited. Names like Brock Nelson, Sam Bennett, and Matt Duchene could be on Toronto’s radar but they may not represent a significant upgrade. In some cases, like Nelson’s, he’s also going to get well compensated, so he may not be an option either.
This leaves Toronto in a tough position, needing to replace Tavares’s offensive production while staying competitive.
In light of these constraints, the Maple Leafs may be compelled to explore the trade market for a potential upgrade at center. However, such moves come with their own set of challenges. Acquiring a top-tier center typically requires significant assets, and the Leafs must carefully consider what they are willing to part with. Given their already talented roster, Toronto would likely need to weigh the pros and cons of giving up young players or draft picks to secure a new centerpiece for their lineup.
Plan B Might Be to Re-Sign Tavares
Maybe moving on from Tavares isn’t the best play. Dayal writes:
Toronto may also scour the trade market for center help but what would it have to give up assets-wise to land such a valuable piece? Re-signing Tavares to a heavily discounted extension could be a fallback option.
source – ‘Seven NHL teams that will shed bad contracts and gain major salary-cap relief in 2025’ – Harman Dayal – The Athletic – 07/31/2024
While finally splitting up the Core Four has its merits, one potential avenue is to re-sign Tavares to a heavily discounted extension. While it may seem counterintuitive, if the Leafs can negotiate a deal that aligns more closely with his on-ice impact, retaining Tavares could provide stability and experience to the roster. With a more reasonable salary, he could continue to be a productive contributor, especially in key moments. This option would allow the Leafs to maintain depth at center while freeing up cap space to address other roster needs.
This Isn’t Necessarily About Dumping Tavares
The loss of Tavares’s cap hit will undoubtedly provide some financial relief, but that doesn’t mean moving the player out is the only option. In fact, it might be the worst one.
The Maple Leafs would need to replace his contributions effectively and there isn’t much available that would work as well as Tavares does — even if he is making too much. By significantly reducing Tavares’ cap hit, the Leafs can build a strong supporting cast around star players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, which will be crucial for Toronto’s success in the coming seasons. In the meantime, Tavares can voluntarily take a step back in terms of the captaincy and embrace the idea that he’s no longer a central piece, but a complimentary one.
On the surface, Plan A might be moving out the player with his salary. The idea of ‘just go out and find someone else’ seems intriguing. In reality, Plan B makes more sense. Keep him on the roster, pay him what he brings in terms of on-ice value (maybe less), and let him take a lesser role on the roster. The on-ice transition will be smoother and the behind-the-scenes narrative less problematic.
