The Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Ilya Samsonov have officially submitted their arbitration numbers, intensifying the contract negotiation process between the two sides. With Samsonov requesting $4.9 million and the Maple Leafs countering with $2.4 million, both parties have expressed their respective salary expectations. Likely to meet in the middle and unlikely this case actually makes it to an arbitration hearing, there is some logic behind potentially pursuing the hearing as a route for the organization.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman’s report suggesting that the Leafs aimed to secure a short-term deal, not exceeding three years, leads to speculation about how low the Leafs would actually like to go. Some have reported that a one-year deal is the best-case scenario and if the two sides can’t work it out independently of an arbitrator, a hearing makes that possible for Toronto.
It’s a risk, but is it one worth taking?
Factors Influencing a Potential One-Year Deal for Samsonov
Ideally, Samsonov would prefer to reach an agreement before Friday if he seeks a longer-term contract. Currently, being one year away from unrestricted free agency after not being qualified by the Washington Capitals last year, Samsonov is destined to secure a one-year award through arbitration. While the Leafs have the option to propose a settlement for a longer duration, it makes sense that whispers they are considering the advantages of a one-year deal are out there.
By offering Samsonov a one-year contract, the Maple Leafs can maintain roster flexibility and evaluate alternative options. The team may also focus on the potential growth of goaltender Joseph Woll and explore other goaltending prospects. Moreover, a one-year deal keeps Samsonov’s salary ask reasonably low while walking him into unrestricted free agency after the season. If the Leafs aren’t sold he’s their guy, that’s not really a problem.
Balancing Risk and Reward
Undoubtedly, there is a level of risk associated with signing Samsonov to a one-year deal. If he turns out to be everything the Leafs might want and more, that he might leave in free agency once the contract expires is not ideal. However, if Samsonov performs well during the season and repeats some solid numbers from the 2022/23 campaign, the Leafs and Samsonov could potentially negotiate a longer-term deal based on his proven abilities.
But, it behooves the Maple Leafs to make sure. According to Jonas Siegel of The Athletic, uncertainty looms over Samsonov’s future and the goaltending situation for the Leafs. While there is considerable potential in Samsonov’s game, the question arises whether he can sustain his performance as the Leafs’ full-time No. 1 goaltender. The increased workload and the necessity to stay healthy pose significant challenges for Samsonov, who has experienced injuries in the past.
Siegel writes:
“Samsonov, due a new contract any day now, doesn’t feel like a sure thing just yet though. Add in the inexperienced Joseph Woll behind him and the Leafs’ crease feels quietly uncertain (with clear upside potential) heading into next season.”
source – ‘Is Ilya Samsonov the real deal? The Maple Leafs still have to find out’ – Jonas Siegel – The Athletic – 07/19/2023
Where Does Matt Murray Fit Into All of This?
The potential arbitration settlement for Samsonov is estimated to fall between $3.5 million and $4.5 million. This would align Samsonov’s cap hit with the remaining year of Matt Murray’s buyout. However, Friedman highlights the complications surrounding Murray’s health, which may impact the feasibility of a buyout for the Leafs. It’s not clear the organization will be able to go that route, even though many believed the arbitration filing by Samsonov was simply a way to open the door for a Murray buyout.
Related: Revisiting Maple Leafs & Marner’s 2019 Contract Negotiations
Instead, Friedman suggests that LTIR (Long-Term Injured Reserve) or a trade could be alternative options depending on the severity of Murray’s situation. Consequently, this arbitration filing might have had little to do with Murray’s situation. Leafs GM Brad Treliving is reportedly exploring the trade market for Murray in the hopes of finding potential partners. The arb case would arguably be unrelated if Treliving has been doing this for some time and a trade was always his Plan A.
Is A One-Year Deal Really a Good Idea?
A two or three-year pact makes the most sense if Samsonov is someone the team believes in. But his ask of $4.9 million and the possibility of a one-year deal with Samsonov remains intriguing. The decision will impact Samsonov’s future with the team, while the Leafs evaluate their goaltending options. If they don’t feel he’s worth investing in yet, they could just take the arbitration award, keep the cap hit lower, and see what comes next.
It appears improbable that the arbitrator would heavily favor Samsonov. Judging by previous cases, Samsonov will secure a contract close to the midpoint of the claims. That would mean a salary in the ballpark of $3.75 million. But, a one-year agreement offers the opportunity for substantial earnings in the 2024 unrestricted free agency market.
