The Toronto Maple Leafs need forward help thanks to several key injuries. They are missing generational centre, Auston Matthews, top-nine complements Matthew Knies, Max Domi, and Max Pacioretty, and depth forwards David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok. Matthews just started skating after a multi-week absence, Knies is day-to-day, Domi has been on injured reserve (IR) since Wednesday, and all of Pacioretty, Kampf, and Jarnkrok have been placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) and are not expected back in the lineup anytime soon.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins have faltered after lofty preseason expectations. They have struggled to score, and their usually superb goaltending has been unable to cover the holes that have become apparent in their defence. As a result, head coach Jim Montgomery was relieved of his duties on Tuesday, and they could begin to sell some of their more coveted assets if they cannot right the ship.
The Maple Leafs, who have historically lacked depth as a byproduct of their superstar forwards each making $10 million or more, there are a few good Bruins forwards who should be on general manager Brad Treliving’s radar to help cover for injuries.
Trent Frederic
Trent Frederic is in the last year of his two-year, $2.3 million AAV contract. The 26-year-old power forward has compiled exactly 50 goals and 50 assists in 301 career games and has fully established himself as a superb third-line energy player. Over the past four seasons, he has consistently performed well, with an expected goals share (xGF%) of 50% or more in every campaign, including seasons of 53.54% and 54.60% in 2021-22 and 2022-23. In addition, the Bruins have controlled most of the high-danger scoring chances share (HDCF%) when he is on the ice.
Related: Breaking Down the Maple Leafs’ Roster Puzzle, Injuries, and Cap Constraints
Frederic could serve as a better version of Ryan Reaves, the gritty fourth-liner who doesn’t contribute much outside of engaging in the occasional fisticuffs. At 6-foot-3, 221 pounds, Frederic has collected nearly 300 penalty minutes (PIM) in as many games and is no stranger to dropping the mitts, with 10 fighting majors in his career.
If they were to pursue him, the Maple Leafs could bench or be rid of the inferior Reaves in exchange for a similar playstyle that can result in goals. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s reasonable to assume that Frederic is a highly-regarded piece within and outside of the Bruins organization, so he likely wouldn’t come cheap. It’s reasonable to predict that he would cost a 2025 2nd-round selection or perhaps a later pick and NHL-projectable prospect.
Morgan Geekie
After a breakout campaign of 17 goals and 39 total points in 2023-24, Morgan Geekie has struggled to begin this season. He has one goal and four points in his first 17 games, which is an 82-game pace of just 19 points. At the same time, his underlying statistics have been among the strongest on the team, sitting second (among regulars) in xGF% with an astounding 56.26%. He leads the Bruins in HDCF% with 60.71% and has been excellent defensively, allowing the second-fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) on the roster.
What this tells me is that Geekie has been incredibly unlucky, which is backed by the stats. He has the second-lowest PDO on the roster, next to Frederic – it measures a player’s luck by combining the team’s shooting percentage (SH%) and save percentage (SV%) at 5v5.
Effectively, on average, PDO should always equal 1.0 – either a shot hits the back of the net or it’s saved. A player with a PDO of above 1.0 is generally considered lucky that either their team is shooting above average or the goaltender is saving more pucks than average. On the flip side, a PDO of below 1.0 is considered unlucky. That rule is exacerbated when the PDO is 0.2 above or below the 1.0 threshold. Geekie’s PDO is an astoundingly low 0.953, showing that he has been extremely unlucky and is due for a boost in production.
While he has established himself as a top-nine forward, the Bruins might think he has enough return value to warrant shopping him around, and the Maple Leafs would be smart to indulge them. At 26 years old, he has shown that his breakout season last campaign wasn’t a fluke despite the unimpressive point totals this season. A reasonable price for the 6-foot-3 natural centre would be similar to that of Frederic, though his career track record might make his price slightly lower – a third-round pick would likely be sufficient.
Bruins Depth Options
The only player with better underlying statistics than Geekie is a surprising one — Justin Brazeau. The undrafted second-year Bruin is first on the team in xGF% with 56.51%, first in scoring chance share (SCF%) with 60.29%, and second on the team in HDCF% with 60.49% while averaging 13:26 nightly. He has scored five goals and nine points across 20 games and provides a physical edge to boot.
Brazeau brings immense size at 6-foot-6 and 227 pounds and uses his strength to keep defenders at bay in a cycle-style offence, which would benefit a Maple Leafs team that has relied on the cycle more this season than they have in the past. Acquisition cost would be another plus for Toronto, as it’s unlikely he would be worth a high price, considering that he has only played 39 games as a 26-year-old. A mid-round pick could do the job.
Cole Koepke was a quietly excellent signing for the Bruins on the first day of free agency this summer. After playing just 26 games with the Tampa Bay Lightning, who drafted him in the sixth round of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, he was given an opportunity to play in the Bruins’ bottom six and has performed admirably. While his sample size last season was small – he played nine games and averaged less than seven minutes per game – his underlying statistics were quite strong, with a 52.96% xGF%.
Koepke has built on that in a larger role this season, sporting a 53.03% xGF% while playing a smidge above 11 minutes nightly. He has eight points in 21 games and holds the highest plus-minus on the team at plus-8 (for those who value the statistic). If the Maple Leafs were rightfully interested in the 26-year-old, I can’t imagine the asking price would be high, considering his extremely short NHL tenure and lack of draft pedigree. I would imagine that a mid-round pick would be sufficient value and provide an uptick in talent to the fourth line.
Time for the Bruins to Sell
As much as it may pain Bruins fans to hear it, their Cup contention window has slammed shut after an incredible decade-plus of success – even if their last two seasons gave hope for a continuation. On paper, their team has glaring holes up and down the lineup, and their goaltending has not been able to cover them up with stellar play. The only reason they would rally and make the playoffs this campaign is if their goaltending tandem channels how they played in their record-breaking 2022-23 season. Otherwise, the lineup is simply not playoff calibre.
If I were GM Don Sweeney, I would start shipping off any and all assets to gain draft capital to develop for the future. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, sit atop the Atlantic Division and are tied for sixth in the NHL in points percentage, so it’s probably time they start evaluating potential options to fill their holes, and the Bruins are prime candidates to provide what they need.
