Against the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday night on home ice, Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Ilya Samsonov didn’t just play well. He singlehandedly stole the show. Facing a Jets team that was down a few top skaters, yet that had the best of the play and the scoring chances for the entire game, Samsonov stopped everything.
The defining moment came during a critical Jets’ penalty kill in the second period. Winnipeg had a two-on-zero breakaway, where Morgan Barron and Adam Lowry were so open that they had several seconds to pass the puck back and forth. They had three good shots on Samsonov’s net and several clear chances to score. A goal at that juncture would have cost the Maple Leafs the game, but Samsonov’s extraordinary saves on that play alone helped secure the Maple Leafs’ win.
The Maple Leafs’ power-play error was so egregious that head coach Sheldon Keefe was livid on the bench and responded by sitting his first power-play unit for an entire man advantage. Yet, Samsonov hung in there and frustrated the Jets’ players – time after time. He stole the game for his team with that single play alone. Then, for good measure, he did it time and time again.
Given that hockey is a collaborative sport, suggesting that Samsonov stole the game is a huge accolade. But that’s exactly what he did – he stole the game from a superior Jets team Wednesday night.
After a Deep Funk, Samsonov Has Showed Up Three Games in a Row
At least for the time being, Samsonov has returned to last season’s form. Over his last two starts, he’s shown remarkable consistency by giving up only one goal on 49 shots. That’s an impressive .980 save percentage. Those performances stand in stark contrast to the four previous games, where he struggled horribly. His play was a gong show of failure. How can this same goalie be so bad for a stretch and then so lights out for another stretch? But that seems to be the problem and the promise of this unique goalie – very hot and very cold.
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For right now, Samsonov’s resurgence represents a huge turnaround. Better yet, it represents wins for his team. He has consistently outperformed expectations and has solidified the Maple Leafs’ last line of defence. He was the crucial factor in his team’s last two wins.
The question now is whether he’s back for good, or whether this two-game winning streak is an aberration. That’s the exact question that Jeff Marek asked goalie guru Kevin Woodley on a recent episode of the “Jeff Marek Show.” The video below shows that interview.
Is Samsonov on a Roller Coaster, Or Is This Sustainable?
In this recent episode of Marek’s show, Woodley spoke about the intriguing dynamics of Samsonov’s goaltending ups and downs with the Maple Leafs. The discussion not only touched upon his emotional investment in the game but also explored the nuanced interplay between his technical foundation as a goalie and how that impacted the ebbs and flows of his performance in the crease.
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Woodley shared Samsonov’s recent captivating success story. Yet, he also emphasized the emotional roller coaster the goalie has ridden throughout the season. There have been the lofty highs of last-minute saves and the emotional connections he has made with the Toronto crowd chanting his name. In short, his journey has been compelling.
Woodley Noted the Dilemma of the Emotional vs. the Technical
However, from the perspective of someone who studies goalies, Woodley cautioned about the potential pitfalls of relying too heavily on emotion rather than maintaining a solid technical foundation. From his perspective, Samsonov was riding the emotional wave and right now it was cresting. However, Woodley highlighted the subjective nature of relying on what he called the “vibes” and the emotional boosts. He emphasized that building a consistent technique provides a goalie with a more reliable and repeatable foundation for success.
During the conversation, Woodley shared his concept of a sliding scale in goaltending. He believes every NHL goalie possesses a unique mix of skills, ranging from technique to feel and rhythm. Samsonov, according to Woodley, leans more towards the feel and rhythm end of the scale. That, to Woodley, contributes to the huge ups and downs in his play.
The Allure of Samsonov’s Athleticism and His Challenge for Consistency
Woodley then pointed to Samsonov’s exceptional athleticism. He’s shown fans some incredible saves that leave them in awe. However, again Woodley pointed out that – like emotion – athleticism was a less repeatable foundation for goalie success. A goalie who’s going to be successful over the long term can rely on neither emotion nor athleticism. Again, Woodley came back to the importance of a strong technical game for sustained success.
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Woodley concluded his analysis by pointing out Samsonov’s challenge. He believes Samsonov must find a balance between emotion, athleticism, and technical consistency. While Maple Leafs fans can get caught up in the spectacular moments Samsonov provides, Woodley urged a more cautious approach for the Maple Leafs in considering Samsonov as a long-term investment. For Woodley, if Samsonov is to be successful, he needs to build a more balanced reliance on both ends of the sliding scale.
In short, while he didn’t say it clearly, Woodley hinted that the Maple Leafs should expect more ups and downs with Samsonov over his career in Toronto. His journey with the Maple Leafs continues to be a fascinating story of the dynamic between emotion and technique in the world of NHL goaltending. That’s Samsonov right now.
What Does Woodley’s Analysis Mean for Samsonov and the Maple Leafs?
Woodley’s analysis – assuming it is correct – presents an interesting dilemma for the Maple Leafs. He presents two ways to look at Samsonov’s value to the organization. At the most negative level, when this goalie is in a funk, he’ll be horrible. He won’t be able to be trusted to stop pucks and the team will likely lose.
(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
However, there’s a more positive way to look at Samsonov’s value. Should he catch a wave of emotion, he has the skills to carry that into the postseason. The Maple Leafs saw just how that worked last postseason when Sergei Bobrovsky seemed almost single-handedly to shut down and oust the team from the playoff’s second round. In other words, a hot goalie can carry a team through a postseason to the Stanley Cup Final.
If Woodley is correct, Samsonov as a goalie is a two-edged sword. The question is what goalie will show up for the remainder of the Maple Leafs season? We know that he has the talent and the athleticism. Can he catch a wave? And, if he does, how far can that carry the team?
