The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to end a four-game losing streak on Thursday night against a surprising Calgary Flames team that has won four in a row. Toronto is at a pivotal juncture in their season, grappling with a string of challenges that have threatened their postseason chances.
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Should the team lose the remaining contests of this four-game Western road swing, there’s a good chance they will return home out of a postseason spot.
Item One: The Maple Leafs’ Struggle Maintaining Leads
Tonight’s game between the Maple Leafs and the Flames will end one team’s four-game streak. The Flames are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Maple Leafs are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Torontoès recent struggles revolve around blown leads.
There are two ways to look at the problem. One is to suggest that the defence needs to step up and be stronger. The second is that the offence needs to score at least another goal. After the loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday (Jan. 16), many blamed the defence.
My friend and often co-writer Stan Smith, who is a keen analyst and charts such things out, notes that scoring more than three goals in an NHL game significantly tips the scales: teams that score three goals have a 50% chance of winning. Teams that score four or more goals enjoy an 80% or higher success rate. On the flip side, teams that score two or fewer goals face bleak odds, with a winning chance plummeting to 25% or lower.
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The Maple Leafs have averaged 2.5 goals per game in their last four outings. While the timing of those goals – 10 in the first half – is notable, the fact is that scoring one more goal could have tipped the balance in their favour.
Item Two: The Current Rollercoaster Ride Threatens the Maple Leafs Playoff Position
The Maple Leafs have been on a rollercoaster ride recently. While they appeared to find stability at the end of December, with a record of 17-10-7, a closer look shows just how precarious the situation had become. The fact is that the team lost as many games as they won (17-17) and were relying on extra “loser” points to boost their standing.
A four-game winning streak to start 2024 helped the team close in on the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, solidifying their third-place standing. However, this four-game losing streak has unravelled the gains and put the team back to 21-13-8 (or 21-21, in terms of raw wins and losses).
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After the Detroit Red Wings beat the Maple Leafs on Sunday (Jan. 14), they then beat the Panthers. Detroit has now surged ahead and pushed Toronto into fourth in the Atlantic Division, holding onto the first wild-card position. There’s a distinct threat of the team being overtaken by teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, and New York Islanders.
Item Three: William Nylander and John Tavares Scoring Woes Continue
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly have been consistent contributors over the past few games. They have shouldered the scoring burden with six goals and ten points in four contests. But neither William Nylander nor John Tavares has put up a single point that span. They need to contribute if the team is to be successful.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
After tonight’s game, the road gets tougher with back-to-back games on the West Coast against the first-place Vancouver Canucks and the Seattle Kraken. However, there might be some good news with goalie Joseph Woll’s return to practice and the fact that he’s accompanying the team on this road trip.
However, with only two games in the next 14 days after tonight, the All-Star break will give the Maple Leafs a chance to regroup and reset before the playoff push. The question right now is where the team will be when the break begins. Things could be happier or sadder around Leafs Nation when the team leaves Seattle.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
