In a high-scoring game, the Toronto Maple Leafs fell short in overtime against the Columbus Blue Jackets, losing 6-5. The Maple Leafs beat the Blue Jackets in every way possible except on the score sheet. The plain fact of the matter is that goalie Ilya Samsonov couldn’t stop enough pucks, so it was going to be tough to win no matter what else happened.
In this post, I’ll comment on the game, the reasons I believe the Maple Leafs lost, and how difficult I believe choices are in this situation for the organization.
Item One: Three Reasons the Maple Leafs Lost
While the Maple Leafs lost, it wasn’t only Samsonov’s fault. Several different breakdowns contributed to the loss. From my perspective, here are three.
First, the goalie concerns were primary. Samsonov had a challenging night, making 15 stops but allowing six goals. His recent struggles can be shown in a single number. He’s given up 21 goals in his last four starts. Likely the game would have been an easy Toronto win without the goaltending mistakes.
Second were the defensive struggles. The Maple Leafs seemed to make a defensive miscue exactly when they needed it least. Without the goalie able to make a few of the stops on these breakdowns, the team always seemed to be walking on eggshells. They allowed the Blue Jackets to mount comeback after comeback. Defensive mistakes ultimately led to the game-tying and game-winning goals. At this point, it’s hard to tell if this is a vulnerability in Toronto’s defensive structure or if a goalie who instilled confidence might have calmed everything down.
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Third were the missed chances. Despite Auston Matthews’ standout game with a goal and an assist, the Maple Leafs missed several opportunities to put the game out of reach (maybe on this night the game would never have been out of reach). In his post-game media scrum, Head coach Sheldon Keefe acknowledged that, under different circumstances, his team would likely win the game almost every time. However, these were not ordinary circumstances and the inability to capitalize on their chances became a deciding factor.
Item Two: Ilya Samsonov Is Struggling
Maple Leafs goaltender Samsonov faced a challenging night. He not only struggled to stop shots but he struggled to maintain confidence. The netminder’s woes were evident all game long. Pucks just slipped past him.
The game was Samsonov’s fourth straight start without a win. Over those games, he’s allowed more than five goals per game. In last night’s game, he could not keep his team in the lead. Now, he’s unable to reprise the early-season success that contributed to his 5-2-6 record.
This is a tough space to be in for both Samsonov and the coaching staff. Both Samsonov and his coaches have to face two kinds of issues – the technical and the mental. At this point, it seems like a pretty deep hole to dig out of. While things might not get better if Samsonov were trying to stop pucks in the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Marlies, it seems pretty clear they’re not going to get better at the NHL level.
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What to do is both simple and difficult. Simply stated, the Maple Leafs right now can’t trust Samsonov in an NHL net. More difficult is the answer to how to fix the problems. He’s a goalie who has skills. Yet, somehow he needs to work to restore confidence and stability in his crease. I’m glad I’m not making the decisions about this situation.
Item Three: Auston Matthews Scored Yet Again
Matthews continued his scorching performance, extending his point streak to nine games. The 26-year-old contributed an even-strength goal and a power-play assist in the game. His recent performance has been remarkable. He’s exploded with 15 goals and 23 points in his last 12 games. Amazing!
Matthews is easily leading the NHL in goal scoring, with 29 goals in the Maple Leafs’ first 33 games of the season. The possibility of achieving significant milestones just keeps popping up in everyone’s thinking. Can he become the first player since Brett Hull in the 1991-92 season to score 50 goals in the first 50 games? Can he reach 70 goals or even 75 goals?
Matthews continues to dominate on the ice and is making what he does seem so easy. His offensive contributions are always present; and, he now seems to have perfected that sneaky move where he uses his speed to come from behind an opposition puck carrier, lift his stick, steal the puck, and turn on a dime to head the other way.
Some nights he’s worth the price of admission.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
Martin Jones will start tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. That’s an easy enough choice. But when the Maple Leafs head to California for a back-to-back against the Los Angeles Kings and the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday and Wednesday, that’s when some choices need to be made.
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Suppose the team is serious about winning during the regular season and not just holding onto a playoff spot until Joseph Woll returns from his high-ankle sprain injury in February. In that case, they can’t allow Samsonov to start another game. As I noted, how they proceed will be a tough choice.