Technically, although you wouldn’t know it listening to the noise, the Ottawa Senators face elimination as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. But the pressure? That might reside more heavily with the Maple Leafs.
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Toronto stormed out to a 3-0 series lead, including two overtime wins, but now find themselves trying to avoid becoming just the fifth team in NHL history to blow such an advantage. The pressure is even more real after a listless 4-0 loss at home in Game 5, especially for a franchise that has won only one of its last 14 potential series-clinching games.
Item One: If the Maple Leafs Consider the Numbers
Although the Maple Leafs have developed a reputation for struggling to close out playoff series in recent years, a broader look at the numbers offers a more encouraging perspective, especially their history against the Senators. Toronto holds a 28-25 all-time record in Game 6 situations in best-of-seven series, including a solid 11-8 mark on the road. These aren’t dominant figures, but they’re far from catastrophic, particularly when stacked against the pressure-laden narrative that often surrounds the team.
The fact is that, on the other side of the numbers, the Maple Leafs have thrived in postseason matchups against Ottawa. In 29 playoff meetings between the two rivals, Toronto has come out on top 19 times and holds a clear edge in goal differential, outscoring the Senators 72-56.
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For those fans who keep looking at the worst of Maple Leafs history, that historical success provides confidence heading into Game 6, even with recent momentum swinging in Ottawa’s favour. The past might be a burden in Toronto, but when it comes to the Battle of Ontario, it’s a burden they’ve mainly carried well.
Item Two: Maple Leafs’ Offensive Leaders
Mitch Marner leads the Maple Leafs with seven points (one goal and six assists) in the series, continuing to play a key role in Toronto’s offensive attack. Auston Matthews and William Nylander each have six points (one goal and five assists), while John Tavares and Matthew Knies have scored three goals each. Tavares has also added two assists.
While the Maple Leafs’ offence dried up in past postseasons, the Core Four (Marner, Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares) is helping ensure that’s not the case in 2025. The quartet leads the team in scoring, and all four are at or above a point-per-game pace.
(Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
The Maple Leafs need to rev up their power play again. Toronto’s power play has delivered with five goals on 16 chances, but the team has also been vulnerable, surrendering two shorthanded goals. The past two games have been far less successful; Toronto has gone 0-for-7 in the past two games, compared to 5-for-9 in the first three.
Item Three: Maple Leafs’ Goalies Last Four Postseasons
Over the past four playoff seasons, the Maple Leafs’ goaltending has been marked by inconsistency and untimely challenges. In 2022, Jack Campbell’s subpar play contributed to a first-round exit. The following year, Ilya Samsonov’s struggles led to Joseph Woll stepping in, though the team fell in the second round. In 2024, Woll’s injury derailed a promising run before a decisive Game 7, forcing a return to the less effective Samsonov.
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In the 2025 Playoffs, Anthony Stolarz has shown flashes of brilliance but has also experienced two recent setbacks, leaving Toronto’s postseason fate uncertain. This pattern highlights the critical need for consistent and resilient goaltending to advance in the playoffs.
Here’s a concise and polished table summarizing the Maple Leafs’ playoff goaltending over the last four postseasons:
| Postseason | Starting Goalie(s) | Key Stats | In the End? |
| 2022 | Jack Campbell | .897 SV%, 3.15 GAA | 1st Round Loss to Tampa Bay |
| 2023 | Ilya Samsonov / Joseph Woll | Samsonov: .898 SV%, 3.13 GAA; Woll: .915 SV%, 2.43 GAA | 2nd Round Loss to Florida |
| 2024 | Ilya Samsonov / Joseph Woll | Samsonov struggled; Woll strong until injured before Game 7 | 1st Round Loss |
| 2025 | Anthony Stolarz | Strong start; Game 4: .810 SV%, Game 5: .882 SV% | Series vs Ottawa 3–2 for Maple Leafs |
Item Four: Imagine Berube’s First Time Coaching in Toronto
First-year head coach Craig Berube has stepped into a uniquely intense pressure cooker in Toronto, where playoff history isn’t just remembered — it’s relived with every misstep. The Maple Leafs’ postseason failures loom large, and Berube, now listening to the daily noise in Leafs Nation, has admitted as much.
“There’s more noise and a lot of past stuff that I hear around here,” he said this week, trying to shift the pressure inward by adding, “The only pressure they have is from their own teammates, in my opinion.” But even he must wonder what kind of team he needs to put on the ice to change the story.
(R.J. Johnston/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
Toronto’s postseason track record doesn’t offer many reassurances — six first-round exits since 2017 and no Game 7 wins in over two decades. The numbers are harsh, and Berube has resisted significant changes, opting for minor tweaks ahead of Game 6 against Ottawa. Still, one can imagine the head-scratching behind the scenes.
How do you satisfy a fan base used to heartbreak without overreacting to every stumble? It’s a dilemma Berube must solve — and soon — if he hopes to quiet the noise that never really goes away in Toronto.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
For Ottawa, a win forces a winner-take-all Game 7 on Saturday in Toronto, keeping their improbable comeback hopes alive. For Toronto, it’s a chance to end the series and avoid becoming another chapter in their well-documented postseason woes. When was the last time the Leafs won a Game 7? April 20, 2004 — against these very Senators.
Related: Marner, Matthews & the Maple Leafs’ Chemistry Doesn’t Just Happen
The Battle of Ontario might be in its latest chapter, but the stakes feel like a final act.
