The Toronto Maple Leafs are in very familiar territory after their sub-par play in October and rejuvenated play in November.
Last season the Maple Leafs were off to an average start going 4-4-1, but their play was a cause for concern. They would eventually follow that up with a 12-2 run in November. Fast forward to the end of October this season, they went 4-4-2 and their work ethic and decision-making came into question quite a bit. Four games into November, they’re currently 3-0-1, while taking a possible five of six points from three top teams in the league.
Is this a case where history is repeating itself for the Toronto Maple Leafs? It sure looks like it. Call it eerie or coincidental, but given their start to the 2022-23 season, poor play, goaltending and bounce back, it’s exactly like it was in 2021-22.
Note: Statistics were accurate before puck drop on Wed. Nov.9, 2022
Slow Start/ Bounce Back
There were many reasons for both starts to why the Maple Leafs were in the position they were, but the biggest one was their play with the puck and how they managed it.
Defensively, the Maple Leafs were completely disorganized with the puck as they were prone to making too many mistakes. This season, that decision-making is once again a glaring issue as it ended up leading to failed clearing attempts, failed breakout plays and resulted in more rush chances against and teams took advantage of those mistakes. Combine that with a less than average offense, the Maple Leafs were the cause of their own demise last season and this season in October.
| Category | Maple Leafs October 2021 | Maple Leafs October 2022 |
| GA/GP | 3.22 (23rd) | 3.00 (13th) |
| Scoring Chances Goals For % | 45.45 (19th) | 41.94 (27th) |
| High Danger Shots For % | 53.15 (12th) | 48.25 (19th) |
| Goals for % | 44.44 (25th) | 43.75 (26th) |
The similarities are noticeable as the mistakes piled on and the Maple Leafs paid the price for that in both seasons as the goals against and lack of offensive production was evident. Their scoring chances goals for, high danger shots for and goals for percentage at five-on-five weren’t the best for a team that boasted a strong offense.
The biggest difference for the Maple Leafs was their inability to attack the middle of the ice and high danger area from the previous season. Too many times this season, especially during their game against the Arizona Coyotes, they’re staying to the perimeter quite a bit and teams are keeping them there. With the speed and skill that this team has, they should have no problem attacking the middle with force. If they want to be seen as an offensive force, they’re going to have to change that and play with more intent to get to the high danger zone.
Related: 4 Steps to Getting the Maple Leafs Back on Track
As we look at November, it’s once again a different picture as the turnaround was astonishing. Even this season, their play is a complete 180. After defeating the Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes, the Maple Leafs’ mistakes caught up to them against the Vegas Goden Knights, though they still managed to salvage a point and show they can remain competitive against top tier teams. The main takeaway, they’re more engaged offensively.
| Category | Maple Leafs November 2021 | Maple Leafs November 2022 (4 games) |
| GA/GP | 1.43 (1st) | 2.00 (4th) |
| Scoring Chances Goals for % | 65% (2nd) | 70 (2nd) |
| High Danger Shots for % | 56.31 (4th) | 52.17 (14th) |
| Goals for % | 63.64 (2nd) | 76.92 (2nd) |
The offense and goals started to come as the Maple Leafs were firing on all cylinders last season and in 2022-23, the production is starting to pick up. Despite, being middle of the pack in HDSF, they’ve vastly improved from the month before and are on par for where they were the previous season.
This time last season was also when Matthews started to go on a massive goal scoring tear and the high-flying offense that many wanted had started to emerge. Now, we’re seeing that once again the team is starting to click with a balanced offense. Matthews may not be on a streak just yet, but Mitch Marner and John Tavares lead the way with 16 and 15 points respectively. Let’s not forget about William Nylander as all-four are playing and producing very well.
Goaltending Consistency and Injuries
Last season was a whirlwind for Maple Leafs goaltenders in the first month and a bit. Then backup goaltender Petr Mrazek was out with a groin injury and Jack Campbell was standing tall in net, facing 171 shots and sported a 3-2-1 record, a strong .918 save percentage and 2.31 goals against average in the month of October. In November, Campbell was also fantastic during that run where he had a .959 SV% and a 1.27 GAA.
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This season, many wondered if the Maple Leafs would be consistent enough to win games gambling on Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Once again injuries and stellar play are at the forefront in regards to the Maple Leafs goaltenders. Matt Murray suffered an adductor injury that forced him to miss the rest of the month of October and the early part of November.
In regards to Samsonov, he started to run away with the starters role in Murray’s absence and put to rest any concerns about his past inconsistent play. He rose to the occasion and did a great job to provide some stability in the crease. As defense and puck management was a result for the Maple Leafs losing key points, he was able to make some big time saves to keep the Maple Leafs in the game. He went 4-2-0, a .920 SV%, a 2.35 GAA and by comparison, Samsonov posted similar stats to Campbell.
In addition, at five-on-five with a minimum of 300 minutes played Samsonov owns the fourth best high danger save percentage with .904 and the fifth best goals saved above average of 3.79, per Natural Stat Trick. Before he went down with a knee injury and the team finding it’s groove, he was 2-0-0 with a 1.81 GAA and .923 SV%. Like Campbell last year, the Maple Leafs had a fighting chance every game this season because of Samsonov. He was no doubt the most valuable player for the month even when the team in front of him wasn’t playing some of their best hockey.
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Given how Samsonov has kept the team afloat to this point, he is going to be the key going forward. As the playoffs approached last season, there was concern with the play of the Maple Leafs goaltenders in the crease. If the Maple Leafs are able to ride their strong play consistently and take pressure off Samsonov– and even Murray– to make their job easier, could things make a turn for the better later on?
Breaking the Trend When it Matters?
If the Maple Leafs continue to click offensively and end up playing hockey in late April, the one thing will continue to weigh on their mind and the minds of everyone else, can they win a playoff round?
After all a lot is riding on this team from the general manager, to the players. Based on what we saw early on, there was a lot of doubt with this team in October as a potential playoff contender struggling against three teams that were toward the bottom of the standings. With constant loses and not showing up to play isn’t the right mentality to have with a team that’s supposed to have high expectations. While they’ve had regular season success, the playoffs is what truly matters.
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Even with the trend of slow starts and finding their focus as the season rolls on, finally breaking the trend of not winning a playoff round would be a major step forward for this team. But, they have to show that with their play and continue to not take nights off. If the high-flying Maple Leafs show up and they work on their egregious mismanagement of the puck, then things could work out.
Until then, this is still a question mark. Though, this is one trend that many would like to see break.
It truly is coincidental to see the similarities between last season and this season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. We know how things played out throughout the regular season and how things ended with another disappointing playoff exit. With history repeating itself, the Maple Leafs do have a chance to change the narrative.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and NHL.
