As the NHL trade deadline looms, trade speculation is heating up, with insiders suggesting all sorts of interesting trade scenarios. Yesterday was particularly fun because it was Valentine’s Day and the idea of matchmaking two teams took center stage. However, not all trade scenarios have much weight to them. In fact, some should be approached with extreme caution.
A recently suggested blockbuster deal between the Calgary Flames and the Toronto Maple Leafs proposed a trade that involved the Maple Leafs acquiring defenseman Noah Hanifin and forward Andrew Mangiapane, with 50% of Mangiapane’s salary retained. In return, the Flames would receive a significant package, including Toronto’s 2024 1st Rd Pick, a 2024 3rd Rd Pick (from the New York Islanders), Calgary’s 2024 5th Rd Pick, along with players Ryan Reaves, Nick Robertson, and Topi Niemela.
It’s an interesting deal in theory, but there are a few reasons it’s neither realistic nor the best move for the Maple Leafs as a franchise. At the very least, Toronto should think twice about pulling the trigger on this type of move.
What Happened to the Hunt For Chris Tanev?
This particular trade suggestion veers off the often-reported path when it comes to Toronto’s rumored search for a defenseman. Most reputable insiders had GM Brad Treliving chasing Chris Tanev. Apparently, that’s no longer in the cards if this trade suggestion is to be taken seriously.
This new deal ups the stakes considerably. For Tanev, the ask was a second-round pick. If Toronto could find a way to replace that value or acquire the pick somewhere else, the worst the Maple Leafs would have to do is give up a first. Now, the deal has a first, a third, and a fifth, along with Reaves, Robertson, and Niemela going to Calgary. All of this is in the hopes that Hanifin will consider signing a long-term deal and can be the piece Toronto needs. There’s no guarantee of either.
The Maple Leafs Already Have Their Top-Line, Left-Shot Defenseman
While the proposal aims to address the perceived needs of both teams, a closer look reveals why the Maple Leafs should exercise caution before pursuing this trade.
One major concern is the redundancy on the left side of Toronto’s defense, with both Hanifin and Morgan Rielly as top-pairing, left-shot defensemen. While Hanifin is undoubtedly a high-caliber player, the Maple Leafs may need to evaluate if acquiring another left-shot defenseman aligns with their roster needs. If the idea is to re-sign Hanifin, is it wise to invest another $7-$8 million per season in a defenseman who will play on the second pair? That leaves less money to address the right side, and the Leafs would be moving a future right-shot defenseman in the trade.
The proposed trade does potentially add strength to the Maple Leafs’ middle six with the inclusion of Mangiapane, but the defensive imbalance remains a noteworthy consideration.
The Added Pieces to Make the Trade Work are Concerning
The inclusion of Mangiapane, a Toronto native, adds a sentimental element to the proposal. However, the Maple Leafs must weigh the sentimental value against the practicality of having another player on the roster who is playing his second-straight down season. Mangiapane scored 35 goals in the 2021-22 season, but last year, his production fell off a cliff. This season, he’s trending for an even lower level of goal production. On pace for just 15 goals, this is not a player the Leafs should feel comfortable about adding, especially given his $5.8 million price tag.
Another aspect of the trade involves moving Reaves to the Flames, potentially as a way to clear cap space. It’s a stretch to assume the Flames would want Reaves, and that Calgary’s desire to “protect” their young assets is of critical importance. Better put, every team wants to protect their young stars, but all indications are that Reaves isn’t a difference-maker in that regard. Frankly, Reaves’ contract was a mistake. To expect a team would want to take on that mistake is illogical.
Related: Defining the Trade Deadline “Home Run” Being Teased for Oilers
Nick Robertson is highlighted as a key piece in the proposed deal for Calgary. Considered a promising young player, the Maple Leafs must carefully evaluate the long-term impact of parting ways with a prospect who could grow with their core and potentially contribute to their future success. At the start of the season, I was all for contemplating a Robertson trade. It wasn’t clear he’d be a regular player for the Leafs in win-now mode. That said, throwing him in as an afterthought doesn’t seem productive. And, it’s not clear how much of a contender this Leafs’ team is.
Finally, Toronto should take into account what Topi Niemela could eventually become in the NHL. At the age of 21, the 2020 third-round pick continues to stand out as the top defenseman in the Maple Leafs’ prospect pool. He is consistently handling top-four minutes in the AHL and is emerging as a key player, leading all Marlies defensemen with 39 games played. What sets him apart is his exceptional decision-making, both with and without the puck, a skill set that never falters. Why give him to the Flames just to make the deal work?
Too Many Maybes for Toronto to Be Comfortable With a Trade Like This
The trade proposal emphasizes a contract extension for Hanifin, the first big unknown in the deal. The second is the assumption that Calgary will retain 50% of Mangipane’s deal and that the forward will somehow find his game in Toronto, where the pressure is even more intense. The third involves giving up some solid prospects and assuming Reaves would be a welcome addition to the Flames.
That’s a lot of ‘what ifs’ and moves, that even if Hanifin were to sign a long-term deal, could come back to bite Toronto.
