Late in the third period of the Edmonton Oilers’ 6-1 victory over the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday (March 30) at Rogers Place, the scoreboard displayed the up-to-the-minute NHL points leaders, with Connor McDavid at the top. The place erupted.
McDavid, a five-time Art Ross Trophy winner (including each of the last three years), has been chasing the league leaders all season long. After picking up three points Saturday, he had finally moved into first place, one point ahead of Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov and two points ahead of Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon.
Within moments, about 1,000 miles away in Denver, MacKinnon picked up his first of four points in Colorado’s 7-4 victory over the Nashville Predators. About an hour after that, on the other side of the continent at Amalie Arena, Kucherov notched his first of two points in Tampa Bay’s 4-1 defeat of the visiting New York Islanders. The sun hadn’t even set in Edmonton yet, and already McDavid was back in third place.
Related: Oilers on Verge of Clinching Playoff Berth After Crushing Ducks 6-1
The chaos atop the NHL points leaderboard on Saturday was just a preview of what should be an absolutely exhilarating race for the Art Ross Trophy over the final days of the 2023-24 NHL season.
Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are all back on the ice again tonight (April 1), although this time it will be the former two playing first (the Lightning host the Detroit Red Wings while Colorado visits the Columbus Blue Jackets, both at 5 p.m. MST) before McDavid and the Oilers face off against the St. Louis Blues at Enterprise Center at 7 p.m. MST.
Going into tonight’s games, MacKinnon has 127 points, followed by Kucherov with 126 and McDavid with 125. Coming out of Monday’s games, the order could just as easily flip.
The NHL hasn’t seen a race like this in years, and the schedule makers have done their part to make it as compelling as possible: including tonight, 10 of the remaining 18 dates in the regular season will feature at least two of three players’ teams in action. MacKinnon and McDavid even go head-to-head twice, when the Avalanche visit Edmonton this Friday (April 5) and the Oilers are in Denver on the final night of the regular season, April 18.
Here’s a look at how things break down for each of the three Art Ross contenders, as fans from coast to coast watch to see who will finish with the most points in the NHL this season.
Connor McDavid, Oilers
- Points per game: 1.79 (125 points in 70 games played)
- Remaining games: 10 (five home/five road; five against teams currently in playoff position/five against teams not currently in playoff position)
- Projected points (points per game x remaining games): 17 more for a total of 142
While McDavid’s season-long average projects to a total of 142 points, the Oilers captain is averaging 2.25 points over the last seven weeks (54 points in 24 games). If he maintains his recent scoring rate over Edmonton’s final 10 games, McDavid will end the season with closer to 150 points than 140.
Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
- Points per game: 1.74 (126 points in 72 games played)
- Remaining games: nine (five home/four road; two against playoff/seven against non-playoff)
- Projected points: 15 more for a total of 141
Kucherov, who is seeking the second Art Ross Trophy of his career and first since 2018-19, has spent the most days atop the points leaderboard of any player in the NHL this season, including nearly all of December, January and February, before being reeled in by MacKinnon and McDavid last month.
Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche
- Points per game: 1.72 (127 points in 74 games played)
- Remaining games: eight (four home/four road; five against playoff/three against non-playoff)
- Projected points: 13 more for a total of 140
Compared to Edmonton and Tampa Bay, the Avalanche have the fewest games and toughest schedule (according to Tankathon) remaining. But MacKinnon averaged the NHL’s highest points per game for games played in March (2.08, with 27 points in 13 games), and will need to do the same in April to win the Art Ross race.
McDavid Can Win Fourth Straight Art Ross
The last season that the top three point producers in the NHL were separated by less than 10 points was 2017-18, when McDavid had 108, followed by Claude Giroux with 102, and Kucherov with 100. The last season when at least three players finished with 140 or more points was 1992-93, when Mario Lemieux recorded 160, Pat Lafontaine had 148 and Adam Oates totalled 142. There has never been a season when the top three point scorers all reached 140 points and were separated by less than 10 points.
History is waiting to be made over the next two and a half weeks. Fans in Oil Country hope it’s McDavid becoming just the fifth player to ever win the Art Ross Trophy in four consecutive seasons, joining Phil Esposito, Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, and Jaromir Jagr. Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild and thrilling ride.
