The William Nylander contract extension changes everything. On the one hand, it’s great that the Toronto Maple Leafs have another star player locked up for the long-term, with Nylander committed for eight more seasons and part of the team’s hopefully competitive future. That said, the $11.5 million per season contract raises a number of questions, not the least of which is what happens if the club doesn’t win this season?
When I say the “extension changes everything”, I should be clear that this new deal changes little about the 2023-24 campaign. But, it puts a lot of pressure on the team to make it work this season, because not doing so potentially closes their window to run it back with a loaded roster. That’s no big deal if the Leafs win the Cup as there’s always churn for a championship team. If they don’t win, then what?
The Immediate Impact of the Nylander Deal
Nylander’s deal doesn’t kick until next season. But, GM Brad Treliving will have to start thinking about the future now. Some will argue the expected increase in the salary cap gives the Leafs the room to make other moves, but the reality is, with this core four making $46.65 million against the cap next season, surrounding them with high quality players won’t be easy. And, should those high quality players be different than the ones they have now?
Brad Treliving said of Nylander’s new deal what it means for the roster moving foward, “I know how hard it is to get talent…. Every dollar matters because we live in a cap world. So, you folks can all debate it — and I’m sure it will be hotly debated — but at the end of the day, when you can get a top player signed, it’s a good day.”
Maybe he’s not wrong. But, with that mindset, he’s clearly aware that today’s win comes at the expense of tomorrow’s extensions.
Who Isn’t Coming Back After This Nylander Extension?
The imminent concerns (imminent meaning this offseason) are Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. There’s a good chance neither will be back. Bertuzzi was looking for a long-term deal and got a one-year. If he has a productive season — the jury is still out with only six goals and 18 points in 37 games — he’ll be looking to cash in and another one-year deal seems unlikely. Conversely, Domi might be open to a team-friendly deal, but within reason.
On the back end, TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano are pending UFAs. Giordano will likely retire. Brodie’s contract could get interesting.
It’s possible none of these players are back and that’s not even addressing the goaltending situation where the struggling Ilya Samsonov is likely on the way out and Joseph Wolli is a couple of seasons from cashing in. Treliving will need to find another goalie and his strategy in that regarding will be heavily debated. If he goes for someone proven, he’ll have to pay for it. If he’s confident in Woll, he may go value deal, which leaves the Leafs in a similar situation to this season.
What About Long-Term Dominos for the Maple Leafs?
John Tavares told the media on Monday that he wants to return with the Maple Leafs when his contract expires. Who knows what that number will look like, but it’s expected he’ll have to take a team-friendly deal. The bigger issue is Mitch Marner.
Related: William Nylander Signs 8-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Nylander’s payday means Marner’s contract could be a monster. Even if he’s not a more productive player than Nylander when his contract comes due, William’s extension proved that the market sets much of the price. If the salary cap is another five or six million above what it goes to this summer, Marner will have every right to ask for fair value in that environment. We could be talking about anywhere from $11.5 million to $13 million based on his production.
All of this means that this season’s team has immense pressure on it to win. Not doing so means that they’ll be trying again in 2024-25 after likely saying goodbye to a number of depth pieces, all while trying to plan out the next big contracts. They’ll be heavily invested in three offensive stars and it’s feasible that the $46.65 million going to the core four could be between $36 and $37 million for three players in two seasons.
If the market dictates someone like Tavares is worth $7 or $8 million on an extension and every other solid player is that much more expensive then than they are now, things are probably doable, but as Treliving pointed out, they will get complicated.
Let’s not forget, winning sooner than later is imperative when it comes to the Nylander deal. As Greg Wyshynski of ESPN points out, “He’ll turn 28 before this deal kicks in. Statistical decline will happen. Injuries will happen. The goal is to win a Stanley Cup well before any of that becomes a migraine for management, which brings us to the hockey world’s favorite query …”
