We live in a world where advanced analytics have entered the forefront of nearly all discussions in the realm of sports. With that, some question whether an overload of information can negatively impact a player or team’s performance. After conversations at New Jersey Devils’ exit interviews, The Hockey Writers have garnered some conclusions on how these statistics are used in today’s NHL.
An Inside Look at Analytics
For goaltenders specifically, analytics surround nearly all debates. There are tons of categories, from “wins above expected”, to “goals saved above expected”, to “high danger save percentage.” These measures are often used in an attempt to accurately compare performance in goaltenders whilst accounting for the fact that each netminder plays behind skaters with differing defensive talent.
A quick search on X (Formerly Twitter) shows thousands of posts regarding “high danger save percentage” (HDSV%). The top 15 results show ~450,000 views and over 2,000 engagements (likes/reposts). High danger save percentage is more simply defined as a goaltender’s ability to stop shots that are in the slot and up close, aka the shots that are most likely to go in. You can read in more detail from Dobber Hockey here.
For reference, Jonathan Quick (New York Rangers) had the best HDSV% in the NHL last season (min. 25 GP), with a .857 HDSV%. Kaapo Kahkonen (San Jose Sharks and Devils) was third with a HDSV% of .826 (via MoneyPuck). So, The Hockey Writers asked Kahkonen what made him excel in those scenarios.
His response (with a chuckle) was: “I guess since you’re asking I probably did? I don’t really know – is that a stat or something, high danger save percentage?”
After explaining it, he laughed again and said, “Maybe those guys just hit me,” before giving a more detailed answer, “(I’m) not chasing. Not trying to open up holes too much…trying to present yourself to the shooter and be as big as you can. Obviously, if you’re in that slot area and you get a scoring chance, it’s usually pretty quick.”
How could it be that the newly signed Winnipeg Jets netminder wasn’t even aware of a statistic that analysts and fans constantly chat about? Well, it actually makes perfect sense. Other than for the team’s sake when evaluating performance, knowledge of the stat directly does nothing to help a goalie’s play. So why would they litter their brains with that information?
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Kahkonen was then asked how he viewed analytics as a whole, saying, “I don’t (pay attention). I know it’s probably a good tool for the teams and the organizations…you can see a lot of information, but I just try to step away.”
It’s been widely chronicled that an overload of information can negatively impact an athlete, specifically in baseball, when New York Mets players verbally expressed frustration at too many numbers being thrown their way. This should be a breath of fresh air for hockey fans, as Kahkonen’s assertions show that this unfortunate phenomenon doesn’t seem to occur in the NHL. Devils’ netminder Jake Allen also weighed in with his thoughts.
He said, “No, I’m not (an analytics guy). I think it plays an important part in our game nowadays (for teams)…I think you’ve got to use all the information you’re given to make your team as best as possible. Individually and collectively, there’s so much information in the world nowadays – almost too much to a fault – but if you’re not using all the tools you have then you’re sort of doing a disservice.”
So it appears both Allen and Kahkonen let the teams and coaches handle the analytics side, leaving themselves to a clear mind and a simpler, direct approach to performing. For further clarification, The Hockey Writers spoke to then-Devils, now-Ottawa Senators head coach Travis Green. He said:
“I don’t think the players are involved with analytics as much as coaches. I do believe if you involve analytics into the players and talk about it with them, then it can overload them. I think the analytics are a byproduct of coaching…there’s so many ways you can use them. Even practice – the level of pace that you need to practice at. It’s a great tool for coaches. I thoroughly believe in it. As far as the players go, they’re not so in-tune to analytics and the study of it.”
– Travis Green
Use, But Don’t Abuse Analytics
That’s the key: analytics are a great tool when used right. For example, say an elite goaltender mightily struggles in Colorado, but their backup excels there. A team might want to choose their Colorado trip as a good day to give their A-guy a day off. Obviously, there are other factors involved in those circumstances, but those are the types of educated decisions that analytics can help drive.
On the contrary, what is harping about goalies’ “expected” stats going to solve, other than making them think too hard? And the same goes for forwards, who are constantly evaluated by their “Corsi”, “Expected goals”, etc.
This is not to say that analytics should be scaled-down or eliminated. Rather, it’s showing that the current NHL has a perfect balance of using but not over-using analytics. It’s simple: goalies need to stop pucks and the other skaters need to help prevent goals while creating them too. If analytics can factor into a coach’s advice to those players, then go for it. But to get too deep into detail and overload them with info – to the point where it affects them mentally – is a no-go.
Analytics, while improving over time, are far from perfect. The “expected numbers” say Ondrej Palat was more valuable on a per-game-basis than any forward on the Devils last season (via Natural Stat Trick). That’s debatable. Hockey players already have to channel enough energy into daily performance at the highest level of the sport. Keeping them focused on their task is vital, and thankfully, the current NHL seems to have a good grasp on that.
