As the 2024-25 season nears, each NHL team’s roster and goals have become clear. Following a 2023 President’s Trophy win and Round 3 loss to the Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers, the New York Rangers enter a Cup-or-Bust season. While the New York Islanders snuck their way into the 2024 Playoffs and fell in Round 1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, their mindset is similar.
Comparing Forward Cores
Last season, the Rangers’ offense shined, finishing seventh in the league, scoring 278 goals. The Islanders struggled with just 245 goals, good for 22nd in the league. However, the two teams were dead even at even strength scoring, coming in at 166 goals each, good for T-19th in the league.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, neither team’s forward core has changed much. The Rangers’ major changes were the addition of Reilly Smith and the departure of Alex Wennberg, Jack Roslovic, and Barclay Goodrow. The New York Islanders only lost Mat Martin and Cal Clutterbuck as they brought in Maxim Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair.
NHL.com has projected each team’s lineup for this season. Here is what I will base my comparison on:
Rangers Forwards:
Chris Kreider — Mika Zibanejad — Reilly Smith
Artemi Panarin — Vincent Trocheck — Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle — Filip Chytil — Kaapo Kakko
Jimmy Vesey — Sam Carrick — Matt Rempe
Islanders Forwards:
Anthony Duclair — Bo Horvat — Mat Barzal
Maxim Tsyplakov— Brock Nelson — Kyle Palmieri
Anders Lee — Jean-Gabriel Pageau — Pierre Engvall
Kyle MacLean — Casey Cizikas — Hudson Fasching
Last season, the Islanders’ top line of Lee-Horvat-Barzal finished with a 57.7 expected goals percentage (xG%) and 57.1 goals percentage (G%), according to MoneyPuck. Adding Duclair, whose speed and scoring prowess will only increase the line’s production, provides no reason to believe the line will regress. The Rangers’ top line was underwhelming, largely due to the struggle to find a consistent right wing. With Kakko on the first line, it had a 51.8 xG%. With Wheeler, a 46.5 xG%. Smith is entering his first season with the Rangers, so his fit is unclear. Until he shows he is the solution, the Islanders’ first line comes out on top.
The Islanders had one of the strongest second lines last season, finishing with a 55.3 xG% and 56.1 G%. However, that is with Palmieri having a career season, so even with the addition of Tsyplakov, the line is bound to regress. While Panarin is entering his age-33 season, Trochek and Lafreniere are on the rise, as evidenced by their 2024 Playoff performances. The Panarin-Trochek-Lafreniere line finished with a 55.6 xG% and 58.1 G% last season, leading the way for the Rangers to take the better second line for 2024-25.
Related: Islanders’ Maxim Tsyplakov’s Unique Skillset Should Bode Well On Long Island
Comparing the Islanders and Rangers’ third lines is a very difficult task. Each team has multiple new faces projected to join the line this season. For the Islanders, it will ultimately come down to Lee’s ability to keep up with Pageau and Engvall’s speed. For the Rangers, Cuylle building on last season’s success and Chytil recovering from his injuries will be pivotal. Until each line hits the ice, I am going to say they are relatively equal, with the Rangers’ third line having a higher upside but a lower floor.
Each team’s fourth line is pretty boring, with the Islanders throwing together three defensive-oriented forwards. The key to the success of the line this season will be getting any offensive production. It does not need to be much, but if each forward can produce close to 10 goals, head coach Patrick Roy will be satisfied. The Rangers have a few question marks, like Rempe’s skating ability and Carrick’s discipline. If the chemistry works, it has the potential to be one of the stronger fourth lines in the NHL. However, given so much uncertainty, the Islanders get the edge here.
Overall, I would still lean towards the Rangers. While the Islanders may have a slight advantage on the first and fourth lines, the Rangers’ second line is dominant, and their bottom six has much more potential than the Islanders’. Although the gap between the two forward groups might be narrower than fans expect, the Rangers should still be regarded as the stronger forward core in this comparison.
Comparing Defense Cores
The Rangers lost Erik Gustafsson to the Detroit Red Wings in free agency but are hopeful Zac Jones can take the leap to the NHL full-time this season. The Islanders’ only major defensive change was the loss of Sebastian Aho to the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the return of Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield to full health will offer a much-needed boost to the team.
NHL.com has projected each team’s lineup for this season. Here is what I will base my comparison on:
Rangers Defenseman:
Ryan Lindgren — Adam Fox
K’Andre Miller — Braden Schneider
Zac Jones — Jacob Trouba
Islanders Defenseman:
Alexander Romanov — Noah Dobson
Adam Pelech — Ryan Pulock
Mike Reilly — Scott Mayfield
Last season, the Islanders’ top pairing of Romanov and Dobson worked tirelessly due to the defense’s injuries. As a pairing, they finished with 50.7 xG% and 63.6 G%. On the Rangers, Lindgren and Fox finished with 46.5 xG% and 60.6 G%. The Islanders performed better in each of these metrics, but Fox’s season was hindered by injuries. Assuming Fox rebounds this season, the Rangers will have the better top defensive pairing, but it is close.
The Islanders and Rangers second defensive pairings are in completely different trajectories as Pelech and Pulock are each 29 years old, while Miller and Schneider are just 22 years old each. For the Islanders, Pelech and Pulock’s keys to the season will be staying healthy. Each had a stint on the Long Term Injured Reserve last season but returned before the playoffs. If Pelech can regain his pre-injury form, he and Pulock have the potential to be one of the top shutdown pairings in the NHL. On the Rangers side, Miller spent most of last season paired with Trouba but performed notably better when alongside Schneider. Together, Miller and Schneider posted a 47 xG% and 53.6 G%, compared to Pelech and Pulock’s 46.8 xG% and 50 G%.
When comparing these two defensive pairings, the situation is similar to evaluating the third forward line. Pelech and Pulock offer a high floor, while Miller and Schneider have the potential to be the best second pairing in the NHL, with a floor that could place them in the bottom 10. The Islanders have a slight edge over the Rangers, but it was a close call and the toughest decision made so far.
In some ways, the Islanders and Rangers have an identical third defensive pairing. Both Trouba and Mayfield are on their fanbases’ bad sides following their 2023-24 season’s mishaps and major lower-body injuries. However, both veterans are hopeful for a rebound this season, playing alongside strong puck-moving defensemen aiming to secure a full-time spot in the lineup. Although Mike Reilly has 400 NHL games under his belt, he has only played more than 61 games in a season once in his career. Fortunately, he seems to have found a good fit on Long Island, where he was Mayfield’s best defensive partner last season, posting a 49.7 xG% and 47.1 G% together. If Mayfield can overcome the significant injuries he sustained last season, this pairing could become one of the top third pairings in the NHL.
The Rangers third pairing has a major question mark surrounding Trouba’s ability. If he can stay healthy and out of the penalty box, fans will move past his 2023-24 struggles. Playing alongside Jones should help, as the 23-year-old defenseman is clearly ready to join the NHL full-time. He had a 51.1 G% and 50 G% in 31 NHL games last season, and his puck-moving abilities should bode well alongside Trouba. The performance of each team’s third pairing will come down to Mayfield and Trouba’s abilities to stay on the ice and out of the penalty box, but as of now, the two units are pretty even.
Overall, I would say the two team’s defensive units are even. I think the Rangers have a bit more upside given their youth, but the Islanders’ veterans have a lengthy record of success. Whether Pelech and Mayfield can stay on the ice is a concern, but assuming they do, the Islanders will have one of the better defensive cores in the NHL while the Rangers could range from below average to one of the best.
Comparing Goaltending Tandems
A lot has been said about the Islanders and Rangers goaltenders. Without Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers do not win the President’s Trophy nor do they make the Eastern Conference Final. With Ilya Sorokin’s struggles, the Islanders were carried by Semyon Varlamov, proving the team has one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL. However, goaltenders are historically fickle, so projecting each team’s tandem is a tough task.
Heading into a contract year, Shesterkin is likely to have a career season. Following a few disappointing stretches during the regular season, he went 10-6 with a 2.34 goals against average (GAA), .927 save percentage (SV%), and 13.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in the 2024 Playoffs. He was utterly ridiculous, and this season is unlikely to be different.
Sorokin struggled last season but in an interesting way. On high-danger scoring chances, he remained one of the league’s best goaltenders. He finished with a 0.105 high-danger unblocked shot attempt SV% above expected. Those are a lot of words, but this stat essentially quantifies how much better a goaltender does on high-danger scoring chances relative to the league average. Shesterkin finished slightly above Sorokin with a 0.107. Goaltenders Linus Ullmark and Sergei Bobrovsky finished towards the bottom of this list. If Sorokin can once again make the routine saves, he should return to a Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender.
As the 2024-25 season approaches, Sorokin is set for a strong comeback. His performance understandably declined due to the Islanders’ injury-riddled defense, but with a fully healthy lineup, his trajectory is expected to improve. Additionally, Sorokin thrived under coach Roy, and with Roy entering his first full season as head coach, Sorokin is primed for a resurgence. While Shesterkin currently has the edge, if Sorokin can replicate his 2022-23 form, he could challenge Shesterkin for the top spot.
Varlamov and Jonathan Quick were each strong goaltenders last season, but Varlamov gets the edge. He finished with a lower SV% and GAA in more ice time on a team with a worse defense and penalty kill. Comparing the two goaltenders at even strength, Varlamov is much better, finishing with a 9 GSAx, .927 SV%, and 2.14 GAA to Quick’s -1.5 GSAx, .918 SV%, and 2.37 GAA.
2023-24 was also an outlier for Quick. He has been on the decline for the past few seasons, so suiting up for the Rangers was an ideal circumstance to recover from his -17.2 GSAx in the 2022-23 season. As well, he will be 39 years old by the end of the season while Varlamov will be 36, meaning he is unlikely to build on last season’s success. How he will play is yet to be determined, but for now, Varlamov is the stronger backup goaltender.
If I had to pick a side, I would rather have the Rangers tandem because of Shesertkin’s upside even though the Islanders could have the best tandem this season. Once the playoffs come around, only one goaltender is needed which is why I would prefer the Rangers, but overall, it is pretty close.
In the end, the Rangers have a significantly stronger roster than the Islanders heading into the 2024-25 season. There is not enough upside on the Islanders’ roster to overtake the Rangers in the standings, and while the Rangers have multiple glaring holes, production from Panarin, Fox, Shesterkin, and others will be too dominant to decline to less than a 45+ win, 100+ point team in the standings.
