The NHL’s Central Scouting bureau releases multiple draft rankings throughout each season, beginning in the Fall with their “Preliminary Players to Watch List”. Unlike Central Scouting’s rankings that will follow, this one simply groups prospects into a few categories based on where they project to be selected on draft day.
An “A” rating means that the player is likely to go in the first round, a “B” denotes a second/third round candidate, a “C” stands for the fourth/fifth rounds and finally a “W” is for the sixth and seventh rounds. Let’s dive into this list and see what we can learn from it about the 2024 NHL Draft class and the top players to watch over the next seven months or so.
Still No Elite Goalie Prospects
While there’s still plenty of time for it to change, it appears that this could be the third draft in a row without a clear high-end goaltending prospect. In 2019 there was Spencer Knight, 2020 had Yaroslav Askarov, and the 2021 Draft had both Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt. However, the past two drafts have seen a total of zero goalies selected in the first round. It appears that this trend may hold for at least another year with no goalies being given a grade of A and only two, Carter George and Ryerson Leenders, earning a B grade.
Related: The NHL’s Top 100 Prospects – Preseason Edition
At the moment I’d consider Leenders to be the favorite to be the first goalie off the board following a hot start in the OHL where he has a 2.33 goals against average and a .932 save percentage through nine starts. I think his 6-foot-1 frame will likely stop him from going in the first round considering the massive goalies we’re seeing more often in the NHL nowadays, but he looks like a legit prospect nonetheless.
28 “A” Grades Handed Out
Of the 473 prospects on this list, there were 28 who were given the A grade, which is a whole lot better than it sounds. Only 32 players will be selected in the first round so for there to be 28 of them who have already emerged as high-end prospects is a really promising start. There are always players who establish themselves a bit later into the draft year so the number of first round caliber players will only continue to grow.
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Here’s a breakdown of which leagues these top 28 are playing in:
WHL: 6
OHL: 5
NCAA: 3
Liiga: 3
KHL: 2
MHL: 2
USHL: 2
J20 Nationell: 1
Allsvenskan: 1
Czechia: 1
QMJHL: 1
NTDP: 1
10 Defensemen with A grades
Last year’s draft had an incredibly strong group of forwards which made up for the lack of high end defensive prospects. This year looks quite different with 10 defenders earning an A grade on the early rankings after last year’s group had just three given an A on Central Scouting’s first list.
The massive trio of Anton Silayev (6-foot-7), Sam Dickinson (6-foot-3), and Artyom Levshunov (6-foot-2) lead the pack currently, but other defenders like Henry Mews and Zayne Parekh also have great chances to be first rounders. Eight defensemen were taken in the first round of the 2023 Draft and I think it’s safe to expect at least 10 to go in the top-32 next time around.
Biggest Surprises (From Least to Most Surprising)
There are always rankings on a list like this that are surprising, shocking, or even just confusing. Let’s take a look at five of the biggest surprises in today’s ranking listed 5-1 from least to most surprising.
5. EJ Emery and Will Skahan Get B’s
EJ Emery and Will Skahan, who are teammates on the blue line for the NTDP’s U18 squad, have both had rather slow starts to their respective draft year’s when it comes to offensive production, but I was still a bit surprised to see each of them given a B grade here. They are both large defenders who move incredibly well and play solid defense. I expect they’ll begin to rise back up this list as their point totals catch up with their on-ice impact.
4. Charlie Elick and Leo Sahlin Wallenius Also Get B’s
Charlie Elick and Leo Sahlin Wallenius are two more defensemen who were given B grades. While It’s not crazy to think one or both of them could end up as second round picks in June, I think both have shown enough to start this year to be elevated to that first round conversation.
3. Michael Hage is the Best Player Without an A
Michael Hage is a prospect who I have been quite impressed with early on this season. Hage missed most of last year due to an injury which may be part of why he only got a B in this ranking, but he has looked dynamic ever since his return at the end of last season and I think he’s worthy of an A.
2. Alexander Zetterberg Gets a W!!!
The jump from the third biggest surprise to the top-two is massive, with the second biggest surprise of the list being Alexander Zetterberg getting a W, meaning NHL Central Scouting thinks he’s likely a sixth or seventh round prospect, if he even gets drafted. Like I mentioned, there are nearly 500 players on this list and only 224 will be drafted this year so a great deal of these players will not hear their name called on draft day.
Related: Grading Each Team’s Draft at the 2023 NHL Draft
Zetterberg is an undersized center who would most likely be a winger if he makes the NHL, standing at 5-foot-8. He gets out-muscled often enough that I understand why he wouldn’t be considered a first round talent, but his speed and puck skills are excellent and I would rank him in the second round right now. Zetterberg has started well in the J20 Nationell with 18 points in his first 15 games, and even if he scores at that rate the whole year it will likely not be enough to stand out as an early pick due to size concerns.
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Earning even a small role on Orebro’s SHL team this year would help his draft stock for sure, but he’d have to play really well against pro players for many teams to consider him in the first two rounds. I think the talent is there and passing on Zetterberg in the third or fourth rounds would be a mistake.
1. Where is Noel Fransen?!?!
The biggest shocker on this list for me by far was the omission of Noel Fransen. Fransen is leading all defensemen in scoring in the J20 Nationell to this point with 21 points in 17 games, 13 of which are goals which is the third highest goal total of all skaters in the league. Last season, the highest goal total amongst defenders was 16 by Axel Sandin Pellikka and Rasmus Larsson, a mark that Fransen will likely surpass in the next week or two.
He doesn’t have the most polished defensive game but he has an absolute rocket of a slap shot and I’m quite surprised he’s not even listed. NHL Central Scouting even has a grade of “LV” or “Limited Viewings” for players who are injured or who they simply haven’t had enough time to rank fairly and he’s not listed there either. Not sure what the situation is but you can expect to see Fransen on many lists throughout the year.
2024 Draft Class is Taking Shape
While we still have several months for these players to define themselves and to showcase their skills, there is already a group forming at the top of the draft class. It appears that Macklin Celebrini and Cole Eiserman will likely be tangled in the first overall conversation for most of the year with a deep and talented group of defensemen likely to go in the first round as well.
